SGOTM 9 - Smurkz

[Niklas]

I figured I'd go on to analyze the game, while waiting for the verdict from AlanH and Gyathaar. I will assume that we are trying to drag India along in tech for the time being.

As I hinted earlier, I believe the AI sucks at trading. Even if India had lots of techs to trade away in different directions, it probably wouldn't matter much. Gandhi would probably use the advantage to buy some near-monopoly tech at a high price and then do nothing useful with it, such as trading it onwards.

So, we should assume that Gandhi is dumb. That means we should make his trading as straight-forward as ever possible, which means let him get the most possible for each contact and/or WM. To do that, he'd need to buy every tech as cheaply as possible, which means we should make sure that everyone else knows everything we want Gandhi to have before we introduce him to the off-shore civs. There's really no rush doing so, we can wait quite some ways into the MA before we try to pull that trick off.

We should make peace with Carthage right away, taking Currency in the peace deal. Then make peace with Ottomans and gift them up to the MA right away. After that we should go for Mono (or Eng if Osman got Mono, then trade Eng for Mono) - Theo - Edu at 4 turns each.
I sincerely doubt that any AI is good enough at research to get Feudalism within the next 12 turns, which means either we have to research it ourselves, or we should go on to Astronomy and/or Banking after that.

 

[AlanH]

Please see my proposed amendment to the new rule for Classic teams in the maintenance thread.

 

[Niklas]

Hmm, 750 AD means 60 turns from now, where are we then? Let's see, 60 turns means 15 techs (plus one free). Mono, Theo, Edu, Astro, Bank, Feu, (Eng,) Inv, GP, Chem, Met, Phy, ToG, Mag makes 13 (plus one free), so by 750 AD we should be just about into the IA. Probably we'll have Steam Power and Industrialization, so we can RR as well as build factories before we start the hand-over.

To me this sounds just what we want. Does everyone agree?

 

[zyxy]

Celts are not in despotism, they are a Monarchy.
And besides the higher production, it also gives them three MPs, so size 7 is possible for them with no clowns. Not that I think they will reach size 7 before finishing their wonder...

Perhaps the only chance we have then is that Madrid finishes Gardens before Celts get Literature.

Yes, you're right. Forgot about Monarchy.

Still, it seems the GLib would have been our best shot. Our fault really for not realizing this soon enough, it would have helped whether Ghandi OCC's or not.

Are we going to try for it still?

 

[CommandoBob]

Hmm, 750 AD means 60 turns from now, where are we then? Let's see, 60 turns means 15 techs (plus one free). Mono, Theo, Edu, Astro, Bank, Feu, (Eng,) Inv, GP, Chem, Met, Phy, ToG, Mag makes 13 (plus one free), so by 750 AD we should be just about into the IA. Probably we'll have Steam Power and Industrialization, so we can RR as well as build factories before we start the hand-over.

To me this sounds just what we want. Does everyone agree?

Sounds better than waiting until the Modern Times.

Is this still chasing after the GLib?

 

[ControlFreak]

At last: more posts than CF! EDIT: No, still just the same number .

You should have the lead anyway. Your posts are much more helpful than any of mine.

As I hinted earlier, I believe the AI sucks at trading. Even if India had lots of techs to trade away in different directions, it probably wouldn't matter much. Gandhi would probably use the advantage to buy some near-monopoly tech at a high price and then do nothing useful with it, such as trading it onwards.

So, we should assume that Gandhi is dumb. That means we should make his trading as straight-forward as ever possible, which means let him get the most possible for each contact and/or WM. To do that, he'd need to buy every tech as cheaply as possible, which means we should make sure that everyone else knows everything we want Gandhi to have before we introduce him to the off-shore civs. There's really no rush doing so, we can wait quite some ways into the MA before we try to pull that trick off.

We should make peace with Carthage right away, taking Currency in the peace deal. Then make peace with Ottomans and gift them up to the MA right away. After that we should go for Mono (or Eng if Osman got Mono, then trade Eng for Mono) - Theo - Edu at 4 turns each.
I sincerely doubt that any AI is good enough at research to get Feudalism within the next 12 turns, which means either we have to research it ourselves, or we should go on to Astronomy and/or Banking after that.

And here lies the complexity of our problem.

Our best bet at getting the Library is to have Spain finish Gardens before Celts know Literature, but we want someone to know Feudalism within 12 turns.

I see why Niklas wants us to get as far ahead as possible before making introductions. India will run themselves into bankruptcy with unit costs and have no resources to trade. Their only commodity to broker is WM and contacts. Those things would be worth at most one tech per civ on the other continent. 3 techs.

We have nothing to lose trying to go for the Library. India is going to be backwards until 750AD whether we try to keep them there or not.

(does Spain have literature? the turnlog post says no.)

Without looking at the save and basing my opinions on Niklas and zyxy's prolific posts, I would say that we should embassy with Spain ASAP. It would be worth stopping the game at that point and rediscussing. If they're close to the Gardens, then we can MA everyone against the Celts and hope that no one gives them Literature in the peace deal (not likely to give the dog in the dogpile a tech for peace). We don't even need troops for that. We do that long enough for our Library to get ahead of any cascades.

 

[WarDance]

I've been thinking about things that might make us feel a little better about the situation.

1. Looking at the territory graph, no one else in the classic games has reached our level of territory until about 500 years after our current date. In another 500 years I believe we will be establishing a strong presence on the other continent and be creating a position where we can build a new FP there. We should have plenty of opportunities for leader fishing over there and hopefully can jump the FP that way. Maybe even rush some wonders over there if we have good luck.

2. For the Great Library to have ANY impact the other teams will have to keep it until the Modern Age. Our current plan still has a chance because of this. I DO think we should build it anyway, though. Better to keep all options open.

3. The Collosus was just finished in my last turnset. That's a pretty late build for one of the earliest available wonders. No one is building the Great Library yet. Spain and America are building the Hanging Gardens, and I'd bet Spain is closest to finishing it judging from city size and terrain improvements. So the cascade will go to America. Hopefully they aren't very far along. As long as the Celts don't have literature we're ok. We have a bunch of units with nothing to do at this point. All we need is a few boats to head out for "the New World". We were talking about doing that anyway. We need to investigate the cities to get a better grasp of the situation. If it looks like there are a bunch of defenders in their wonder town we could even sign an ROP to position our troops properly without counterattacks, then do the ol' ROP rape. I really don't like using that tactic, but you gotta do what you gotta do. As long as we start the Great Library immediately we should have a shot at it.

4. The way we've played so far we really have 2 strategies open to us, and I still think our first strategy is a good one. The Great Library (if we can pull it off) opens up a second strategy, and it looks like the other teams ONLY have that single strategy option. Of course I could be wrong about that because I don't really know exactly what they're doing. But undoubtedly they are building the Great Library in their old core and don't have a solid second core until 500 years after us.

 

[CommandoBob]

Without looking at the save and basing my opinions on Niklas and zyxy's prolific posts, I would say that we should embassy with Spain ASAP. It would be worth stopping the game at that point and rediscussing. If they're close to the Gardens, then we can MA everyone against the Celts and hope that no one gives them Literature in the peace deal (not likely to give the dog in the dogpile a tech for peace). We don't even need troops for that. We do that long enough for our Library to get ahead of any cascades.

Thoughts on the Celtic dogpile:

• The Celts only have six cities:
  • Entremont (3) Capital
  • Mohacs (4)
  • Camulodunum (2)
  • Gergovia (3)
  • Richborough (4)
  • Verulamium (1)
• America has ten cities, all on the same land mass as the Celts.
• Spain has eleven cities, but only one, Pamplona (1), is on the same land as the Celts.
• Lugdunum (7) used to be Celt, is now American.
• Both have horses connected; neither has iron connected.
• America's core is much better developed than the Celtic core.
• America, and not Spain, can easier deliver a lethal blow to the Celts.

In twenty turns, America could pick up three to four Celtic cities, doing some of our work for us. It does not seem likely that the Celts would be eliminated in twenty turns by American action, the distances are too great.

Unrelated question:
Do AI civ's build Great Wonders during wartime?

What is going through my mind is declaring war on the Celts or Spain, capture their wonder building city, remove our units and then let that city flip back to them. Their wonder making is stopped and they have to start over to build that wonder, which would be doubtful if enemy units were close to the city. And probably not the best way to conduct a war, since this is a temporary measure, just a great big raid. But it could slow down their wonder making.

 

[WarDance]

Unrelated question:
Do AI civ's build Great Wonders during wartime?.

They do. And as far as I know they won't stop a build in progress that is reasonably far along. From what I've seen any civ that has more than just one city will generally try and build a wonder if there is one available. I've never seen a OCC civ try and build one.

Weren't the Greeks building wonders in 3 out of their 6 towns when we declared on them last game? That was nutty.

 

[Niklas]

Since CB is the only one to have commented on the rules change, and was positive about it, I'll take that as a unanimous yes.
Not that I see how anyone could object, this was more or less exactly what we asked for. AlanH, many thanks for your wisdom in resolving the matter.

It seems the Celts are in for a treat. But before we decide we should have all the info at hand.
CB, would you do what zyxy proposed and play a short session in which you make embassies and take screen shots? Then we'll have a much better chance at assessing the situation. You could also make peace with Carthage and Ottos and do the gifting of Osman to the MA, then we'll know his free tech before planning further. That's something we should do regardless of which path we choose from here.
We will want an embassy with America as well obviously, should we investigate SF too? EDIT: I think that's wasted money, it has next to no building capacity so no way it could pose a threat towards the GLib (or compete for the Gardens).

 

[zyxy]

Since CB is the only one to have commented on the rules change, and was positive about it, I'll take that as a unanimous yes.
Not that I see how anyone could object, this was more or less exactly what we asked for. AlanH, many thanks for your wisdom in resolving the matter.

It seems the Celts are in for a treat. But before we decide we should have all the info at hand.
CB, would you do what zyxy proposed and play a short session in which you make embassies and take screen shots? Then we'll have a much better chance at assessing the situation. You could also make peace with Carthage and Ottos and do the gifting of Osman to the MA, then we'll know his free tech before planning further. That's something we should do regardless of which path we choose from here.
We will want an embassy with America as well obviously, should we investigate SF too? EDIT: I think that's wasted money, it has next to no building capacity so no way it could pose a threat towards the GLib (or compete for the Gardens).

This sounds like a good plan. If we don't want to investigate SF, then embassy with America is not really needed, is it?

A point of order: once again it is CB's turn and we are discussing for pages on end . Maybe it's time to reach some conclusions...

EDIT: oh, and the rule change is good.

EDIT2: @CB: well spotted that America and Celts are not "best friends"! Things start to look up.
@Wardance: Thanks for making us feel better. 't Was needed .

 

[ControlFreak]

Since CB is the only one to have commented on the rules change, and was positive about it, I'll take that as a unanimous yes.

Sorry...yes I agree with the rules change.

@Wardance: Thanks for making us feel better. 't Was needed .

Guess I was skimming, because I never felt that bad. But regardless, I feel better now too.

I will get a chance to look at the save later today work permitting. Having the embassy view of our competition will be a big help in discussing. Then I agree with zyxy, lets come to a precise game plan before running CB into the mire of multi-page posts.

 

[CommandoBob]

A point of order: once again it is CB's turn and we are discussing for pages on end . Maybe it's time to reach some conclusions...

Yes, but we cannot reach conclusions without data.

I have no objection to a short preflight session that would include

• Make peace with Carthage.
• Make peace with Ottomans.
• Give Ottomans the techs they need to get into the Middle Ages.
• Trade for the Ottomans free tech (?).
• Build embassies with all but India (with the needed screen shots).
• Other things that could be done on the IBT (Examine cites).

It would be about 12 hours before I could start this, which gives plenty of time to refine what 'play-and-peek' session should do. And the turn log would just about write itself.

Then, once we get the data, and mull it over, (more pages of discussion), we would have a better plan of what to do overall (or at least to 750 AD), which means a better plan of what to do on the next turnset. (And fewer bloopers for me! )

 

[WarDance]

There is a forest chop that will complete in 2 turns that should send shields to House of the Beard since it's closest, but to make sure it doesn't go to 'Grad it should switch to the Great Library right away just in case.

Guess I was skimming, because I never felt that bad. But regardless, I feel better now too.

And I didn't think that anyone was really feeling "bad", I just sensed perhaps a bit of frustration and a tiny bit of discouragement in Niklas' discussions of the new rule proposal.

 

[zyxy]

I have no objection to a short preflight session that would include

• Make peace with Carthage.
• Make peace with Ottomans.
• Give Ottomans the techs they need to get into the Middle Ages.
• Trade for the Ottomans free tech (?).
• Build embassies with all but India (with the needed screen shots).
• Other things that could be done on the IBT (Examine cites).

IMO:
- only embassies with Spain and Celts. Possibly with America, and in that case also investigate SF please. (The purpose of the embassies is mainly to get a timelimit on the wonder builds). Embassies with Mongolia, Ottoman, and Carthage are not needed, we know all we need to know about them.
- do not trade for Ottoman tech yet. It will probably be too expensive anyway.
- don't forget to take currency in the carthage peace deal

 

[WarDance]

IMO:
- only embassies with Spain and Celts. Possibly with America, and in that case also investigate SF please. (The purpose of the embassies is mainly to get a timelimit on the wonder builds). Embassies with Mongolia, Ottoman, and Carthage are not needed, we know all we need to know about them.
- do not trade for Ottoman tech yet. It will probably be too expensive anyway.
- don't forget to take currency in the carthage peace deal

Why not trade for the Ottoman tech? If we can that is. If they get Monotheism we might be able to get it for Republic and Literature. If not then we could try and get Monarchy from one of the others and add that to the pot.

Edit: and when we investigate those cities make a note of the defenders.

 

[CommandoBob]

IMO:
- only embassies with Spain and Celts. Possibly with America, and in that case also investigate SF please. (The purpose of the embassies is mainly to get a timelimit on the wonder builds). Embassies with Mongolia, Ottoman, and Carthage are not needed, we know all we need to know about them.

Ok.

- do not trade for Ottoman tech yet. It will probably be too expensive anyway.

I will at least find out what their free tech is and we can go from there.

- don't forget to take currency in the carthage peace deal

Oops! I had forgotten this.

 

[Niklas]

And I didn't think that anyone was really feeling "bad", I just sensed perhaps a bit of frustration and a tiny bit of discouragement in Niklas' discussions of the new rule proposal.

I admit, I was certainly feeling frustrated about India's lack of expansion, and with the rules change I felt herded towards a strategy (using the GLib) that I had been advocating against from the start and still do not like. My appologies if I let my frustration spill over onto you guys.

With the new change to the rules, I feel much better again. We've more or less regained the chance to play the game we were planning for, since we can now "simulate" India's expansion at the beginning of the IA. So even if we in the end decide to go for the GLib after all and let India stay on hold until the MT, it will have been our choice.

I'm glad you posted that list WD, it states several things that have been circling in my head without really finding a home. In particular, you're right that it is not a matter of building the GLib or letting India expand in the IA -- We can easily do both (assuming we get the GLib that is), to good effect! Perhaps we could even let India get the GLib at the start of the IA, without having introduced the two continents to one another. That way we can let India catch up fine, and then catch up even more with contacts trading.
EDIT: Before we try this though, we should be sure to landlock all the other civs so that they can't meet up the natural way.

The second important point you bring up is that we already have a second core up to par with the first one, and could (should) start planning for the next one right away. The other teams have just about started to expand into the northern area (assuming that's where they are expanding), and couldn't have a core up and running there for some turnsets to come. This not only gives us more strategic options than what they have, it also gives us a chance to catch up to their tech lead. Presumably their research will start to slow down in the IA when they don't have that second core fully developed as we will have.

<---- this is a delimiter

I want an embassy with America since I forsee an upcoming alliance vs Celts, if nothing else so to deny them the chance to trade for Literature. We could wait with the American embassy though, until we know just how big a threat Entremont really is. Perhaps it will be Entremont that will build the Gardens and Madrid we'll have to concentrate on... though I strongly doubt it, Entremont must have been building settlers until very recently.

 

[CommandoBob]

Wild Thought

Does MapStat or CivAssisst (in their non-spoiler state) track when a city begins building a wonder? (I am at work and cannot test this idea here.)

From our discussions so far this seems unlikely because someone would have used that feature to determine the status of the Hanging Gardens in Spain and Celt land.

And . . . I tend to be an Inquisitive Idiot.

 

[Niklas]

@CB: Correct, it is spoiler info so no spoiler-free tool would show it.

While commuting earlier today I had a look at some MMing that could be done in the northern core. I didn't have time to go through all towns, but it's something.


Zentral:
The BG mine will finish this turn, as will the road on the hills near LMin. If the workers building that road goes to help the miners W of Zentral, that mine will finish next turn. That means Zentral can do 9 spt starting this turn, and 11 spt from next.
The workers on the gold report 7 turns left. Mining costs 18, and one of them is a slave, which suggests they have been at it for one turn (7*2.5=17.5) (WD, is that true?). After this turn they will have completed 5 WTs, leaving 13. The two workers from the BG mine can help from next turn, thus making 4.5 per turn, for 9.5 WTs the turn after that, leaving 8.5 to complete. On that turn the four workers on the hills W of Zentral will have finished the mine there and can join in on the gold to make exactly 8.5 on that turn. This means Zentral can do 13 spt starting two turns from now.
Zentral has collected 39 shields so far, leaving 41 for a library or 61 for a market. 9+11+13 the following three turns means another 33, making a total of 72, leaving 8 for a market or 28 for a market. At that point the hills to the E of the gold mountain will be roaded, so 6 workers could move in and start a mine right away, to be finished two turns later for 15 spt on that turn, 13+15=28 assuming no shields lost to corruption.

I think Zentral should definitely go for market first, we have lots of potential for growing here still, and can do up to +12 fpt once the borders expand (4 turns from now).


Missi:
Missi has collected 62 shields, leaving 18 for library or 38 for market. We're doing 9 spt net here, so the library comes in exactly two turns, whereas the market would require something extra. An imagined next shield would be lost too, so to get a market in 4 we'd need to increase raw spt by 2 in 2 turns, not feasible. The other alternative is to abandon some of those pesky RCP-breakers, that would reduce waste enough.
Still, I think a library here first makes sense, both for the fact that we'd be making the most out of our shields at the moment, and since a border expansion would bringplenty of useful tiles into the range of Cabana. As has been noted, we should switch the irrigator here to mining instead, or possibly move him to help on the hills.

I'm thinking finish the library in 2, then a market for hopefully 8 turns. The border expansion would come in 5 turns from now since you start accumulating culture from the turn before the IBT when the library is built.


Cabana:
Clearly we need more mines here. Right now we have a maximum of 5 spt raw, or 4 spt net. Mining the two incense tiles, and the two desert tiles to the SE, plus bringing the olives in 5 turns from now, all that together would increase spt to 10 raw, probably 9 net once the offenders are gone. It's hard to make a reasonable prediction on how fast we could finish a library or market, other than that it will take too long...

I would argue a market first here, we can likely get more gain faster from letting Cabana grow. With the two FP tiles we could easily make +10 fpt for at least a short period of time, and +7fpt for growth in 3 should be possible for some time as well.


City for the Sages:
25 shields collected, makes 5 spt net. Has a library already, so it's just a matter of how fast we can grow and how fast we can get the market. By switching two plains for the oysters we can grow in 1 while still making 5 spt this turn (will get a forest on growth). After that we could/should continue working the oysters plus the ivory for 5 spt and growth in 2.
At 7 we can stop growing and maximize production instead, working sheep, 4 forests and two plains for (probably) 10 spt net. 75 shields left, so 3 turns at 5 spt and then 6 turns at 10 spt will do the trick, market in 9. After that we should be sure to mine the plains and work the oysters, and start pre-building Copernicus. We're a bit late already, we could in theory have Astro in 16 turns from now. Perhaps we should consider cash-rushing the market in favor of faster growth and a much earlier Copernicus? I think it would pay off, but it's hard to say anything for sure.


Ismurkz:
Needs an aqueduct to keep growing, and then a market to continue growing.
Grows rather fast and has good production, perhaps we should toll it for a few settlers? If not, we should grow up to 6 and then maximize production for a fast aqueduct. The plains to the S should be mined.


Arismurkz:
Will have a hard time growing. Should switch the forest to the lake on turn 0 to grow in 1, the forest will come in on growth anyway.


Smurkz-am-zee:
Really needs a harbor, perhaps even before a library.


Kazan:
No use letting Kazan stay at size 1. Work a plains for two turns to grow to 2, then work two forest for 5 spt, settler will be done in 6 that way.


Leptis Minor:
Same thing here, let it work a forest for settler in 5, but be sure to set it to +0fpt on the turn that the settler is due.


Karakorum:
Let it grow to 3 and finish the settler as fast as possible. We can build the settler at size 3 and let Karakorum drop back to 1, then manually abandon it. Settler should come in 9, maybe we should skip it alltogether and abandon right away for increased production elsewhere?



Yeah, I know, this is even more noise to add to the general discussion. But it needed to be said.