SGOTM5 - Team MOTH

[TimBentley]

It looks like the Indian war is progressing. Perhaps we will want to start an American war soon to get the rest of the cities in the area?

A note regarding tundra de/reforestation. If you chop a forest and then mine it (with a railroad obviously), it should be clear it has already been chopped.

Somebody's going to research refining any time now.

 

[MOTH]

I hadn't commented on it, but we have a halfway decent rail-net now. It goes from the South-Central area to our Northern port. We have connected several our Cities near St.Pete's as well. We also have a decent net in India's old territorry. We've actually got a slight surplus of slaves in the old India territory, but we will need them to rebuild the road nets that I long distance bombed to slow down India's Cav's routes to our cities. Once we capture (or raze) Karachi we will need to connect in the roads and Rails.

As for India's Core (Karachi, Boston, and another), the flip risk will be high until they are starved down. I've been seeing 2-4% flip risk in captured cities until they have been starved and border expanded. I've been defending with 0 or 1 units in some of these cases so as to not lose too many units. That was how the Indians managed to recapture the couple of cities from me. The bigest flip risk was still next to Sapporo. We now have a Library and Temple and should pass Sapporo's culture about the time we both reach 100 culture (~13 turns I think).

As for long term strategy, I really think we should consider a Palace jump. There are 2 ways I could see doing this:
1. Traditional - Abandon Moscow with all its nice culture and wonders
2. Rebuild the Palace in a city near Moscow and then abandon that city.

The 2nd is obviously much longer term, but has the advantage of not losing one of our most productive cities. It would probably take 40 turns to rebuild the Palace in the city closest to Moscow. I didn't want to start on my turns in case we needed the Palace for the Hoover's pre-build. I guess we could start this now.

Where will we be in 40 turns? We could be in position at that time to consider a Palace jump to the Southern Continent and get a few turns benefit from the Palace Rank corruption exploit.

 

[Bede]

1700-1750
The Save

We have successfully bankrupted the Arabs as theyhave nothing no cash to offer for our furs. And theyhave so little in the bank that threatening war to get them to take them will only lead to a really bad deal.

Don't need the wines for furs deal from Iro right now and I want them to build up their cash so we have someplace to sell our shiny new techs to in four turns as no one as any other monies to spend.

Used the pile of cash in the treasury to rush knights at home and harbors on the sub continent as we are making 675gpt for the next four at least with research shut down.

1705
Lose an artillery unit to Indian cavalry then kill the cav with elite MDI, no joy. Raze Karachi. Upgrade knights to cossacks.

Iroquois take Ise from Japan.

1715
Maneuver around trying to find the best way to Bangalore. DEcide that a thrust from New Delhi is best.

Capture an Indian settler and kill a rifle north of Ganges.

1730
Raze Bangalore including Sun Tzu's Art of War.

Get Refining and all his gold from Hiawatha for Atomic Theory and we have no oil, he does, all of it.

Keep WLKTD going in the homeland so we get rid of that last wasted shield by buying wool and spices from the Celts and raising the luxury bar. Without oil we have no reason to hurry towards Combustion.

1750
Make the move on Boston but I am one short of taking the town.

Iroquois found Kiohera on the Indian sub-continent.

Once done with Boston we can probably take Washington en passant then Buffalo, Philadelphia and San Francisco and Miami.

Then across from Chicago to Madrid, Toledo and Barcelona. It just takes time to position, capture, then heal up the armies and the other wounded.

Building factories in the homeland which can be rushed once Hoover is done.

Keep an eye on the trade opportunities and make a deal for Combustion and Oil as soon as Combustion is available, then upgrade the galleons.

We will win this one but it is not going to garner any prizes for speed of finish.

 

[TimBentley]

Keep an eye on the trade opportunities and make a deal for Combustion and Oil as soon as Combustion is available, then upgrade the galleons.

Make sure you buy oil before combustion (or in the same deal probably would work).

 

[MOTH]

Current Rotation:
M60 - up now
TimBentley
Chamnix
MOTH
Bede - just played

 

[M60A3TTS]

Got it. Playing tonight.

 

[M60A3TTS]

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/sgotm5/MOTH_SG005_AD1770_01.SAV

Preturn: At war with India, keep up the pressure.

IBT- Lose dyes, renew peace with Japan. Renew silk deal with Iroquois, down to 33gpt vs. 37. Moskva Cossack>hospital.

Turn 1 (1752AD) Lose 2 cossacks attacking 2 rifles in Boston. Take the town with the army. Kill 2 Indian cav vic Chicago with army now 5/14.

IBT- Japan completes US.

Turn 2 (1754AD) Capture Toledo defended by reg rifle. Capture San Francisco defended by a vet rifle.

IBT- Reg Indian cav dies attacking a Cossack.

Turn 3 (1756) Capture Philadelphia and Madrid which has the Pyramids. Cossacks facing some draftee rifles now.

IBT- Arabs try to extort furs. Tell him to take a hike, he backs down. Ganges riots.

Turn 4 (1758AD) Trade a Cossack for a rifle by Madrid. Worker actions.

IBT- France wants MPP. No thanks.

Turn 5 (1760AD) Kill another reg Indian rifle by Madrid. More worker stuff.

IBT- America and India sign TE against us. Vikes and Iro sign MPP. Hoover in Detroit, infantry next. Vikes declare war on Japan.

Turn 6 (1762AD) Attack an Indian rifle in St. Louis and capture the place, killing an MGL. Wonder what Gandhi was saving him for? Capture Miami that costs us a Cossack. Capture Dallas which leaves India with Barcelona. Should be it for India next turn if nothing flips next IBT.

IBT- Nothing flips, so we’re looking good.

Turn 7 (1764AD) Artillery redlines lone rifle in Barcelona. Cossack kills him, embargo between India and America ends, and Gandhi is out.

Now for what has to be one of the more bizarre turns in history: Move a Cossack adjacent to Washington to check out the defense, and IT’S EMPTY???? Move out of the area, declare war which brings Egypt against us since they had an MPP and another Cossack takes the American capital without firing a shot. I have never seen that in all the time I’ve been playing Civ. Absolutely incredible, we’re talking about a vacant size 11 city capital. Move a Cossack army up to Buffalo, and IT’S EMPTY!!! What happened, did the American army implode? Cossacks advance to find Elephantine empty, and so is Baltimore, and the AMERICANS ARE DEFEATED!!


IBT- Palace gets some work done on the front.

Turn 8 (1766AD) Worker actions, move a Cossack army up towards Heliopolis, but we’re a bit thin for troops again. Suggest we keep Detroit on infantry duty for a while.

IBT- Japan lands 2 cav and a samurai in our homeland, but they’re after the Iroquois town of Ise. Iro counter kills samurai, cav, and redlines the last cav with an MI.

Turn 9 (1768AD) We’re at over 6700 gold now, and still no signs of combustion. I’m going to fire up the science. At 90% we’re still @ 133gpt and combustion in 10. Rush a few libraries.

IBT- Not much

Turn 10 (1770AD) Load up some workers and a couple infantry on galleons and send them abroad. Cossack army moves up to Heliopolis and finds a pike defending. Worker actions, and done.

Post turn: Just need more infantry up in the old American-Indian territories. Only at war with Egypt who are no threat. Score 831.

 

[TimBentley]

Maybe America was broke and all of his units eventually were disbanded.

Got it. I'll play tomorrow.

 

[TimBentley]

It looks like it's only worth the effort to capture Heliopolis from Egypt. The other cities can be captured when the marines come. Spain seems like the next victim.

I think I'll research towards tanks. Oh, I thought the AI would research flight before mass production. Maybe if I researched flight I could trade it for mass production. I still think I'll go for mass production after combustion.

 

[Bede]

Now for what has to be one of the more bizarre turns in history: Move a Cossack adjacent to Washington to check out the defense, and IT’S EMPTY???? Move out of the area, declare war which brings Egypt against us since they had an MPP and another Cossack takes the American capital without firing a shot. I have never seen that in all the time I’ve been playing Civ. Absolutely incredible, we’re talking about a vacant size 11 city capital. Move a Cossack army up to Buffalo, and IT’S EMPTY!!! What happened, did the American army implode? Cossacks advance to find Elephantine empty, and so is Baltimore, and the AMERICANS ARE DEFEATED!!

What a victory, bloodless., truly en passant.

And, yeah, just roll 'em up like window shades.

 

[TimBentley]

1770(0)-switch Moskva to cossack, Detroit to infantry, make a few other changes
Raise science to 100%

IBT-Scandinavian ironclads bombard Japan

1772(1)-Last turn I thought I couldn't get Moskva to 45spt; well it's now making infantry
Army kills 3 pikes to capture Heliopolis, settler
New Egyptian capital is Asyut, take their WM and 11g for peace

IBT-renew silks for gem deal with Zulu, up payment from 15gpt to 16gpt

1774(2)-zzz

1776(3)-rush a couple of courthouses
Just now notice the forest on grassland by Pune

IBT-pollution by Chittagong

1778(4)-zzz

1780(5)-zzz

1782(6)-sell furs and 72g to Iroquois for wines
sell furs to Japan for 23gpt
sell steel to Celts for spices, wool, WM

IBT-pollution strikes Detroit (why the hills?)

1784(7)-sell furs to Zulu for 26gpt
buy oil from Iroquois for 1gpt

IBT-learn combustion, start on mass production

1786(8)-zzz

IBT-OCC France, Vikings sign MA against Japan

1788(9)-many people know combustion

IBT-OCC Mongols, France sign MA against Japan (do Mongols have a death wish?)
Pollution strikes Pune (on a mountain!)

1790(10)-zzz

Notes: I would have started war with Spain, but I decided to leave it for the next player.

Here is the save.

 

[Chamnix]

Got it - I should be able to play tonight.

Initial thoughts:

It looks like all the oil in the world is in the northeast. Unless I am missing some somewhere, the Arabs and the Iroquois are monopolizing it now. If we control that area, the rest of the world will be easy. Of course, those two have the strongest militaries (we are strong compared to everyone else - average compared to those two). I think it may be time to use the RoP Abuse we have been saving. Since Iroquois are giving us oil now and can afford massive gpt for Electronics, the Arabs are the best choice. I think the best plan is:

1. Move all troops we can spare toward Arabia but outside of their territory.
2. Declare war on someone else on the large continent - sign an MA with Arabia (so some of their troops will leave home) and an RoP.
3. Load troops into Arabia and position strategically - locations to be determined.
4. Declare war on Arabia and sign an MA with Iroquois in case Arabia has an RoP with Iroquois - we don't want their troops getting home quickly. Besides, we can use the help.

This plan will take some time to get together - we need more ships and a LOT more artillery. Cossacks vs. infantry in cities will not be fun.

Alternatively we could sign an RoP with the Iroquois and use their territory as a launching point for the Arabian attack so we don't abuse RoP, but I think if we can conquer Arabia quickly, we won't need RoP abuse again so there is no point in saving it.

The other option is to continue preying on the weak until we get stronger, but at some point we will have to fight for oil - I would rather do it now before others have tanks and planes.

Comments?

 

[MOTH]

I agree that its time to be dastardly. Use ROP abuse against Arabia. Be sure to capture their city on that little southern island with the luxuries (as well as any other fringe cities near our territory).

Raze their capital and capture an oil city or two and then sue for peace (as soon as MAs are gone or will our MA rep already be trash as well?) for as many fringe cities as we can get. We can then rest and repair and then abuse the peace treaty and attack again.

 

[TimBentley]

Sounds like a good plan to me. Keep in mind we've got oil for 17 turns, if that helps with the planning. After that it would cost significantly more than 1gpt. We will have to watch for ships bombarding our shores.

 

[Chamnix]

I only got in a few turns last night. Significant events - China declared on us so we captured Thebes from them. We have an MA against China and an RoP with the Arabs. The first couple landing parties have disembarked in Arabia. I have been working my way through our bank account by rushing artillery every other turn in our 1 shield cities in the north.

I'll try to finish tonight.

 

[Chamnix]

Turns are taking forever now even though it seems as if nothing is happening...

The turnlog for my first 7:

Pre-turn:

Move some units toward the ships. Micromanage some. Rush several artillery.

The Zulu have 70gpt available but will only give 48gpt for electronics, so I figure it’s time to sell before they finish. Get 649g + 253gpt from the Iroquois. Get 8 + 88gpt + Dyes from Japan. Get 99g + 5gpt from the Zulu.

Change a couple builds on our home island to factory to take advantage of Hoovers.

Iroquois cancel our deal – we were giving them silk for 33gpt.

Turn 1 (1792) – Load ships, move toward Arabia. Auction off our silks to the highest bidder (Iroquois at 32 gpt).

IBT – nothing of note

Turn 2 (1794) – Build an embassy in Arabia. Mecca is guarded by 6 infantry (3 regular, 3 vet.) 28spt, palace, barracks, temple, market, library, bank, cathedral, university, colloseum, JS Bachs, hospital, battlefield medicine. 6 luxuries total – 2 furs, 1 each of wine, dyes, incense, spices, and silks, 2 rubber, 2 oil, 1 coal, 3 salt, 3 iron, 2 horses, 40% research, 60% tax, factory in 1.

Decide to declare on China – we have no per turn deals, and we have the added bonus that we can take Thebes and a settler pair wandering across our territory. Instead of declaring, I tell them to remove their forces or declare - they declare so we get a little bonus happiness.

We sign an RoP and MA against China with Arabia – we have to throw in 1 of our 2 excess furs, but they will throw in 1 gpt.

We take out the Chinese cav defending the settler – 2 more slaves for us.
We capture Thebes without loss.
Our first troops are unloaded in Arabia.

IBT – nothing

Turn 3 (1796) – more troops to Arabia.

IBT – a lone Chinese Frigate bombs our mainland.

Turn 4 (1798) – more troops to Arabia.

IBT – Chinese Frigate bombs again.

Turn 5 (1800) – More troops to Arabia. Turn science to 60% - mass production still in 2.

IBT – The Chinese want to talk. We are not ready to betray Arabia yet, so no.

Turn 6 (1802) – I send a Cossack on a tour of Arabia. Muscat has a musket (hmm…) as its top defender but has no strategic value to us. Chartres also has a musket and it has got oil. Marseilles has a rifleman. Everywhere else (I think) has infantry. Science to 50% - mass production next turn.

IBT – We discover mass production (monopoly), start motorized transport – 8 turns @100%.

Turn 7 (1804) – The last available troops reach Arabia. We are ready for war next turn.

I am going to pause here because I think our next move is critical – we will only get one chance to do maximum damage to Arabia. I’m thinking Chartres is a must since it has oil, is defended by muskets, and has no culture, but I'm undecided where the rest of the troops should hit first.

By my count, we have 2 cossack armies, 31 artillery, 21 cossacks, 9 infantry, and 1 guerilla in Arabia to position as we wish.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79976&stc=1

 

[MOTH]

If we still have loads of cash then go ahead and spend hundreds or more spying on the Arab border cities and/or those near Chartres. You can determine exactly how many defenders of what type are present and plan the attack. My guess is that we want 3-1 attackers per combat (mabybe 2-1 if only muskets deffending.)

 

[Chamnix]

We will have 1200-1300g at the beginning of next turn for investigating. I really don't want to use to use cossacks against infantry (especially in cities/metros) without artillery support. We can overwhelm them with numbers, but we will lose so many that it will be hard to keep our gains and make it impossible to progress after the initial sneak attack.

After sleeping on it, I think we have enough cossacks to take the musket/rifle towns without artillery after investigating. Any idea what the probability is of artillery doing damage to an infantry in a city is? i.e. how many artillery do we need per infantry in order to be likely to be able to reduce all to 1 hp?

 

[TimBentley]

Assuming an infantry is fortified on grassland in a city, artillery has about a 49.8% chance of doing 1hp of damage, and about a 22.1% chance of doing 2hp of damage. If I calculated correctly, 3 artillery would have a 36.1% (edit: actually 60%) chance of bombarding it to 1hp, and 4 artillery would have a 62.8% (edit: actually 81.3%) chance of bombarding it to 1hp.

 

[Chamnix]

Based on my (admittedly very imperfect) memories of past games, those numbers seem awfully high... does that 49.8% take into account the chance that the artillery will sometimes destroy an improvement or kill people instead of damaging the infantry?