Prelude
Background: Political Islam has become in the Middle East over the last decade a new force that has already been compared to pan-Arabism of the previous century. Every secular government in the region has faced challenges from Islamic political movements, and in some cases these movements have been successful. In Palestine the Islamist movement Hamas has come to power, in Iran a Shiite dominated government has existed since the 1970s, and recently in Iraq Islamist parties have won an overwhelming majority of seats in the new government. But the established forces that rule the Middle East were not so easy to give in to this new wave, and in more authoritarian regimes the rise of Islamist movements has been met with harsh repressions. In Syria thousands died when the government crushed an uprising of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, and despite constant persecution the Brotherhood remains the most important opposition group in Syria. With the ascendance of Syrias new president, Bashar al-Assad, political reform has slowly begun in Syria and after the soft purge of the old influential politicians that took place over the last five years the path for political reform seems open. And the Brotherhood stands to gain from it.
January 4th
The Council of Ministers met with the President today to review the state of the country and progress that has been made over the last year. The President congratulated the government on the pace of economic reforms that have been initiated two years ago, and on the record surplus, thanks to high oil prices. He re-iterated his commitment to political reform more vocally this year, since most of the government has been purged of conservative opponents to his plan. Still, no concrete details were offered as to what the next step in the Presidents reform may be. The most important topic of discussion was the increased militancy of Islamist organizations around the world, and the increased instances of terrorism. The President suggested that in order to combat these threats the political Islamist organizations will have to be brought into the political process, forcing them to renounce violence. Reportedly the President got into a fierce argument with Hasan Turkmani, deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, the highest-ranked member of the old guard to remain in the government. General Turkmani reportedly opposed the plan to bring militant Islamist organizations into the political process.
January 6th-14th
General Turkmani and a number of other government members believed to be anchoring the conservative faction within the government openly criticized the plan to allow militant Islamist organizations, especially the Brotherhood, to enter the political process. In a number of speeches and news conferences the conservative leaders emphasized the dangers of militant Islamism and linked it to terrorism. No open accusations have been made, but most people read these statements to say that instead of fighting terrorism President Assad is ready to give in to the Brotherhood. This apparent split within the government has caused renewed speculation about the possibility that President Assad is not fully in control of his country.
January 15th
President Assad unveils a plan that will allow the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood to become a legitimate political party if the organization gives up violence. Celebrations in a number of Sunni settlements turn to riots when General Turkmani openly states that the current government will not carry out the plan. Federal troops violently restored order to a number of cities, and rumors that they were ordered to do so by Turkmani further fuel Sunni discontent.
January 17th-23rd
The government continues to send out mixed signals, with the conservatives fighting the new Presidential proposal. It becomes clear after a few days that the process, ones started, can no longer be stopped without serious military intervention because of the massive mobilization of Sunni populations in support of the matter. Privately a number of politicians express concern over the reliability of the Brotherhood and its commitment to the political process. Regardless, the conservatives find little support outside the initial group that led the opposition.
January 28th
President Assad sacks General Turkmani from his government positions, but Turkmani remains in the armed forces. Following the event three other ministers quit the government which now has no serious opposition to Assads policies in it. Turkmani continues to criticize the proposed plan, but without a government position his ability to influence the process is very limited. The same day President Assad introduces a law into the Peoples Council that would lift the ban on religious political parties.
February 12th
After the proposed law passes the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood announces its victory in the struggle against the Syrian government and some of the Sunni communities celebrate the event. Some government and opposition officials express concern regarding the Brotherhoods commitment to the political process by President Assad remains sure that the change is for the best. Two days later the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood becomes a recognized political party.
