The crypto thread

[RobAnybody]

True, so is copper.

 

[El_Machinae]

I don't know how to not call it a scam. Billions of dollars in value are getting absconded by the infrastructure that enriches upwards and normal people lose money.

 

[RobAnybody]

So... exactly the same as the people that sold Beanie Babies as an "investment"?

I mean, I guess maybe it just comes down to: we are using the term "scam" differently? I mean it as "snake oil" - something the seller knows, at the time, is both worthless & never gonna return any value. However, an investment, even a speculative one, that just... doesn't pan out, is not what *I* mean by the term "scam". Not saying my perception is correct, just maybe different?

EDIT: Like, let's take Microsoft Zune - their attempt at a competitor to iPods. That was an utter failure. But not a scam. They *thought* it would succeed. The intent was to succeed. But it didn't. Total fail. That's how I view most crypto. The people who advanced it thought it was a good idea. It just... wasn't. C'est la vie.

 

[El_Machinae]

So... exactly the same as the people that sold Beanie Babies as an "investment"?

I mean, I guess maybe it just comes down to: we are using the term "scam" differently? I mean it as "snake oil" - something the seller knows, at the time, is both worthless & never gonna return any value. However, an investment, even a speculative one, that just... doesn't pan out, is not what *I* mean by the term "scam". Not saying my perception is correct, just maybe different?

EDIT: Like, let's take Microsoft Zune - their attempt at a competitor to iPods. That was an utter failure. But not a scam. They *thought* it would succeed. The intent was to succeed. But it didn't. Total fail. That's how I view most crypto. The people who advanced it thought it was a good idea. It just... wasn't. C'est la vie.

Oh, we're definitely just arguing a definition (and I appreciate the quote marks around 'investment')

Right now, the scam is mostly around the idea that you can conveniently store crypto. I think there's no real scam about intrinsic value, where mostly people know that there isn't any and know that they're taking a risk as to why their guess that it will later is true.

But, you know what? As I type I realize: I don't know if the people being scammed just can't get their money out or if they literally cannot access their tokens. Like, if you own crypto in a failing and locked down exchange ... can you just trade it elsewhere and it's your actual money that's been lost?

 

[RobAnybody]

That is a good point, & one I have not had to deal with. My ("I was stupid, but may as well just hold them") Etherium "coins" are on Coinbase. I know they had concerns, but they didn't go *poof*. I believe (but don't know) that I could theoretically transfer them to, say Crypto.com if Coinbase went *poof*. The only reason I believe that is because I could do that right now if I wanted to. I have no idea if that would remain an option if Coinbase went *poof*.

If/when it happens, I'll let you know (probably by complaining about it here ).

 

[Lexicus]

EDIT: Like, let's take Microsoft Zune - their attempt at a competitor to iPods. That was an utter failure. But not a scam. They *thought* it would succeed. The intent was to succeed. But it didn't. Total fail. That's how I view most crypto. The people who advanced it thought it was a good idea. It just... wasn't. C'est la vie.

This is like saying that people thought Bernie Madoff would be a success as a wealth manager. Doesn't mean his thing wasn't a scam.

 

[RobAnybody]

I simply disagree. Madoff knew all along he was scamming people. Microsoft's Zune developers didn't know that. They thought they were launching a competitor to iPods. They just... failed.

 

[Lexicus]

I simply disagree. He knew all along he was scamming people. Microsoft's Zune developers didn't know that. They thought they were launching a competitor to iPods. They just... failed.

Well, take this Sam Bankman-Fried guy who's been in the news lately. You think he didn't know he was scamming people?

 

[RobAnybody]

I have no idea who that is (maybe I should, & am ok with a: "you should!" criticism). If you wanna link me to a something, I'm absolutely open to the idea that some individual was scamming people using crypto as the scam. But even if I read your link & absolutely agree with you re: this specific person was a scammer (which, again, I'm open to doing - post the link), I probably (? maybe? dunno yet?) won't change my mind that the whole concept of crypto is a scam. I might, just saying, might not - that name (currently) means nothing to me.

 

[El_Machinae]

That explains why we're talking past each other. Another crypto exchange has gone bust, with people unable to withdraw their funds (even the millionaires who would have 'looked carefully' with hired experts).

 

[Hygro]

I wouldn’t recommend gold as an investment, but it does have the two advantages over crypto in that it’s (a.) not a pyramid scheme and (b.) can’t just oops disappear.

Also you won the cfc stock trading competition buying gold

 

[Lexicus]

I have no idea who that is (maybe I should, & am ok with a: "you should!" criticism). If you wanna link me to a something, I'm absolutely open to the idea that some individual was scamming people using crypto as the scam. But even if I read your link & absolutely agree with you re: this specific person was a scammer (which, again, I'm open to doing - post the link), I probably (? maybe? dunno yet?) won't change my mind that the whole concept of crypto is a scam. I might, just saying.

You Can Forget About Crypto Now

The industry’s latest meltdown is not like all the rest.

www.theatlantic.com

This is a short piece. There are two passages from it that I want to highlight.

Crypto collapses have become par for the course. But even for an industry known for its volatility, the downfall of SBF came as a cascade of cold water. Bankman-Fried, after all, was supposed to be crypto’s good-guy wunderkind, the pro-regulation prophet who would finally lead crypto into the mainstream. Indeed, SBF put particular emphasis on the idea that you could trust his exchange in an industry notorious for its gamblers and grifters; as if to make that message even clearer, FTX paid to sponsor MLB’s umpires—those supposed arbiters of truth and fairness—as opposed to its players. In an article that has since been erased from the internet, the venture-capital firm Sequoia hailed SBF as a surefire “future trillionaire,” in part thanks to the scale of his vision for a future where trading bitcoin is as easy and popular as shopping on Amazon.

Imagine your debit card suddenly stopped working because the executives at your bank were out making high-risk trades with your money while you were trying to pay for groceries—that’s roughly analogous to what Bankman-Fried is accused of pulling off. (Bankman-Fried did not respond to a request for comment.)

Now, you say that you won't admit crypto itself is a scam even if everyone who was actually in the crypto sector was a scammer, fine, I understand the distinction you're trying to draw. What I'm telling you is that crypto's only actual utility (aside from buying child prostitutes and illegal drugs, for which cash is better anyway) is to scam people. That's it! That's why I'm calling it a scam. It's not like a tulip, which is still a flower at the end of the day. It's not a beanie babie, which has use-value, as we already discussed. It's sort of like a negative-color image of a fiat currency: if fiat currency is a valueless token designed to facilitate the transfer of resources from the private sector to the state, cryptocurrency is a valueless token designed to facilitate the transfer of resources from marks to grifters.

 

[RobAnybody]

Now, you say that you won't admit crypto itself is a scam even if everyone who was actually in the crypto sector was a scammer, fine, I understand the distinction you're trying to draw. What I'm telling you is that crypto's only actual utility (aside from buying child prostitutes and illegal drugs, for which cash is better anyway) is to scam people. That's it!

Oh, good lord. You went somewhere I did not expect you to go & that I don't want to go. Y'all have at this.

 

[El_Machinae]

From my financial assets perspective, I am watching to see if people actually start borrowing crypto in order to fund purchases in real assets. Once people are borrowing it, it will show that they've some insight into utility that I've missed. Plus, the borrowing with create value.

 

[amadeus]

Also you won the cfc stock trading competition buying gold

Apple!

 

[FriendlyFire]

Also, I will have you know that my Transformers are so much better than your Beanie Babies!! (just kidding, of course) To this day, the only gun I have ever owned is a Walther P38 that transforms into Megatron.

Kinda Ironic given the meteoric rise and then collapse of Beanie babies
Perhaps there is a lesson here ?

 

[MrCynical]

I mean, I guess maybe it just comes down to: we are using the term "scam" differently? I mean it as "snake oil" - something the seller knows, at the time, is both worthless & never gonna return any value. However, an investment, even a speculative one, that just... doesn't pan out, is not what *I* mean by the term "scam". Not saying my perception is correct, just maybe different?

I don't think this is a great definition of a scam. It's quite common in classic scams like pyramid schemes to have people recruiting who genuinely believe they will be profitable, even though that's mathematically impossible for the vast majority. Usually there's at least a few people at the start and at the top of the pyramid who know they're recruiting suckers, but it's not strictly necessary. You could in principle have a pyramid scheme where all involved are sincere, if mathematically clueless.

The basic problem with cryptocurrency is that its alleged utility (as a currency) is something that pretty much no one uses it for. Nobody buys bitcoin because they think it's a handy way to pay for groceries, or their rent, or whatever. If it was actually functioning as a currency, you would not expect to turn a profit simply by converting other currencies into crypto. In reality, everyone is buying it as a speculative token that they hope will keep growing in value, like it did for those who got in early. This is always the way it goes with a bubble or pyramid scheme. Snag is that it's impossible for a bubble to keep growing like that indefinitely. For the price to keep increasing, more suckers have to keep buying in from outside the system using ordinary currencies. The pool of suckers is finite, therefore increase cannot be continued indefinitely.

In principle the value of cryptocurrencies might simply plateau rather than collapsing, but that's of no interest to practically everyone involved in it at the moment. They're there for profit, and the only way to profit is to buy in early enough that you're in the small minority who come out ahead - those in the "tip" of the pyramid. So the only way to rationalise buying into crypto is if you think the bubble/pyramid is capable of expanding to a vastly greater size (i.e., the existing pyramid will entirely fit into the profitable tip of a much larger pyramid before the whole thing collapses). And I can't see cryptocurrency generating enough confidence to convince many more people to join at this point.

The recent collapse of the FTX exchange, and the mountain of fraud/scammery being uncovered concerning its founder Sam Bankman-Fried, is rather exposing that cryptocurrency is not any safer than existing fiat currency. Quite the reverse - the whole lack of regulation in this sector makes these events very likely, and removes most recourse options that exist with regulated banks. I don't see the idea of crypto being somehow "superior" to fiat is going to be effective at getting many more recruits at this stage.

 

[Narz]

Crypto is all a scam. If you can't see this, you are a mark.

Like any other investment there were marks & were those who took advantage of those marks.

Irrational faith is always markish.

 

[Narz]

In principle the value of cryptocurrencies might simply plateau rather than collapsing

I don't see how a crypto would ever plateau. If it stops growing eventually people cash out to spend real money on real things. Without growth whats the point (unless you're trying to hide capital for tax reasons which is probably the main reason these markets still exist)?

 

[Samson]

aside from buying child prostitutes and illegal drugs, for which cash is better anyway

I could not comment on prostitution, but monero has some advantages over cash. Not having to be in the same room for one.

Nobody buys bitcoin because they think it's a handy way to pay for groceries, or their rent, or whatever.

Well, as long as the whatever includes above then some do.