The crypto thread

[warpus]

In the end ETFs will draw more people into the space and should be seen as a positive, IMO

 

[Samson]

Positive in terms of bitcoin price, less so control of CO2 emissions...

 

[warpus]

Do more people buying Bitcoin lead to more mining activity? I could be wrong, but don't you have the same amount of computers set up to mine whether ETFs are a thing or not? I suppose in theory you'll have more transactions to be verified, but wouldn't that just mean that verification will in theory take a bit longer, since you'll have the same number of miners but more BTC moving across the network?

But yeah in my post I meant in the context of price action only.

 

[Samson]

Do more people buying Bitcoin lead to more mining activity? I could be wrong, but don't you have the same amount of computers set up to mine whether ETFs are a thing or not? I suppose in theory you'll have more transactions to be verified, but wouldn't that just mean that verification will in theory take a bit longer, since you'll have the same number of miners but more BTC moving across the network?

But yeah in my post I meant in the context of price action only.

My understanding is that the more bitcoin is worth, the more money you make from mining, so the more people that do it, so the difficulty increases so it uses more electricity.

 

[warpus]

Yeah, that's true, I see what you mean. I don't think it necessarily makes sense to point to the ETFs specifically as a reason more people end up mining though (i.e. it seems to simply be a symptom of mass adoption), but that might be a nuance that doesn't really matter. Mass adoption will lead to more mining, that much seems to be true.

IMO this is why it is important (if you are in this space) to support green mining initiatives as well as green blockchain tech that does not rely on expensive mining. I was involved in an NFT event a while ago and we ended up going with a blockchain that is carbon neutral. There were other considerations as well, but that was a nice selling point (to artists, those looking to buy art, etc.)

China banning mining could be a good move for the environment as well. From what I understand a lot of the large-scale mining being set up in Texas (and other parts of the west) are looking to be carbon neutral, if they can. I have not done any research on this specifically though, just repeating something I heard, so I could be way off on this. I did find a related article, but I don't have time to skim it right now

 

[innonimatu]

"green mining" is an oxymoron. As well as a bad term anyway, because "mining" makes no sense here. Call it processing. It was (and is) a shameless attempt at playing the "scarcity" idea and likening bitcoin to gold.

You can't do processing without energy. And can't do artificial scarcity without making the thing constantly to get, which means wasting ever more energy. It's built in due to the notion of imposing artificial scarcity,. And that notion cannot be dropped without the whole thing collapsing because it stands as the only argument for "value".

 

[El_Machinae]

Yeah, that's true, I see what you mean. I don't think it necessarily makes sense to point to the ETFs specifically as a reason more people end up mining though

If price causes mining and an ETF is good for price, then ETFs cause mining

The destructiveness from bitcoin correlates with its price. It's net destructive

 

[RobAnybody]

If it matters to anyone interested, one of the websites that sells SHIBA is having a "contest" where the people who buy the most SHIBA can win prizes (it's Crypto.com, which I'm not endorsing or criticizing, just pointing it out, although full disclosure I use Coinbase, not Crypto.com). The contest lasts through Nov-10. I'd guess SHIBA will fluctuate-but-increase 'til then, then afterwards there will likely be a selloff. I'm totally just guessing though. Not in any way advising anyone to buy now or sell after. Just pointing it out.

I bought a bunch of SHIBA before this "contest", am holding throughout, am not buying more during, & will hold afterwards, even if it drops. But, well, do with that information what you will.

 

[warpus]

These meme coins are really the worst and silliest part of the whole blockchain related community/tech/space. IMO. I wouldn't invest any significant amount in them, looking at the price right now it's about 90% of its all time high. If you're hoping for a 1000x of your investment just because some people got lucky with this coin early on, then IMO you are looking in the wrong place.

I mean, I could very well be proven wrong, but this coin seems to be riding a wave of popularity on the back of its fanatical community. But what is their tech? Do they have solid devs and a solid plan? Nobody knows or cares

 

[RobAnybody]

That is fair, & I will in no way say you're wrong. But, well... DOGE, & comics, & Beanie Banies, & baseball cards have all had the same things said about them. But people made a lot of money off them. And then some of them crashed. So you could absolutely be right, but you could absolutely be wrong. These are mostly speculative assets. Comics are still way, way, up; DOGE is way, way up from its initial value (but is quite down now from its high - IMO, do not buy it now); baseball/basketball cards have mostly tanked (with some wildly expensive exceptions); Beanie Babies have utterly tanked.

There's just no way to know for sure with stuff like this. The people who bought DOGE when it was <$0.001 made a poop-ton of money when it went to $0.70. I have a Hulk #181 CGC 9.0 comic (first appearance of Wolverine) which has massively increased in value from when I bought it ($1,400>$11,600, latest sale on ebay). When Marvel re-introduces mutants, I'm betting it goes up even more (not that I'm looking to sell it).

poo-poo'ing any individual speculative asset is absolutely likely to be right. You will be more right than you are wrong. But sometimes, just sometimes, you are wrong. It just depends on the asset. And in this case, I think there's money to be made. So I'm... in, & yes, I'm gambling.

*BUT*, all that said, I have money to gamble on it. I still don't in any way recommend anyone put in any money they can't afford to lose. It could all go *poof* tomorrow.

 

[warpus]

The thing is that you are pointing to doge & Shiba after they have already blown up. They might go up, they might go down - nobody knows.. they will probably do this and that and whatever else.

The point is that there are people who made a lot of money buy buying these coins before they were popular. You will have to get really lucky to repeat the same thing by buying the exact same coins. Yeah, if you buy into these now you can maybe eventually make 2x or 3x or whatever. But if you want to be as lucky as those people who made a killing, you will have to find coins that aren't popular yet - and buy early. Buying meme coins that have already exploded is not a good strategy, you're just following your feelings of FOMO

 

[RobAnybody]

I don't disagree. Except that DOGE has already blown up. It went from less than $0.01, like literally $0.0005 to $&0.70. Now about $0.25. SHIBA is at $0.000075. So in that way it's the "year ago equivalent" of DOGE. I am in no way advocating buying it as a "make a bunch of money & retire".

But *in this thread*, where people are talking about this stuff, I'm simply saying I'm in.

 

[warpus]

Comparing coin prices doesn't make sense in this case, you should be comparing the market caps. You can invest in whatever you want, but all I'm saying is that when you invest in meme coins you are investing in the community. Whereas when you invest in things like Ethereum for example, you are investing in the technology, the developers, and the community. So if your goal here is not actually "I want mad x2000 gains" then it seems to make sense to invest in something that is solid in the tech, the team, and the community, and not just the community. But if you want to find the next big meme coin that is going to increase in value by 4,000% in a short period of time, then don't look at existing popular meme coins.

 

[RobAnybody]

I mean, yes... I agree with your point. I'm long-term invested in Ethereum. I'm... also rolling the dice on SHIBA. Ethereum is a long-term play. SHIBA is a short/mid-term "let's all get rich" play.

Both can be true.

There is no world in which I am selling my Ethereum in the next several months. There is a hypothetical world where my SHIBA goes to to the moon like DOGE did, & I decide which yacht I'm spending each upcoming weekend vacationing on. I'm just saying: do both, if you can.

EDIT: For those reading along, 1 Ethereum coin currently costs ~$4,320; 1 SHIBA coin costs $0.00007. That's why it's so different.

Oh, & a DOGE coin is $0.27 right now. That's what I mean when I talk about SHIBA "going DOGE" - do the math

 

[warpus]

I just checked the charts and SHIBA is performing while most other coins are stagnating right now. So maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about

You really should read up on market caps though. Just because a coin is selling for $0.00007 right now (or whatever) doesn't mean that it has any chance of ever being worth $1. It all depends on their tokenomics and the way they've set everything up. There is a market cap calculator out there somewhere, let me plug in some numbers

Okay.. So.. Bitcoin has the highest market cap of all the crypto currencies, right? It's got like 42% of the market right now or something like that. How much would a SHIBA INU coin sell for if it had that giant of a market cap? i.e. if it blew up so much so that the entire market cap of SHIBA INU was the same as the current market cap of Bitcoin? Which seems like a crazy proposition, right?

In that scenario a SHIBA INU coin would be selling for $0.002123. Extrapolating you get the following numbers: In order for it to sell for 30 cents, which is what doge coin is selling for right now, the SHINA IBU marketcap would have to be (doing math brb) about 141 times higher than the current marketcap of Bitcoin. Obviously crazy numbers that will not happen anytime soon and probably never.

So I hope you can appreciate how impossible it would be for SHIA IBU to jump to $1 or even 30 cents right now or anytime soon. Just because a coin is selling for a fraction of a penny right now doesn't mean that it necessarily has any chance of ever reaching a dollar or even a penny. Look at the market cap instead. The math works out the way it does here because SHIBA INU has sooooo many coins minted. So each one is worth a tiny amount but there are soooo many of them. Another problem is that it's inflationary - so the price naturally goes down over time - and requires other pressures to go up instead. (community promoting it, going viral, marketing, etc.)

That's what I meant when I said that if you are hoping for 4,000% profits in the short or medium term, this coin has already had that moment. It's impossible for it to jump that amount again anytime soon. BUT there are probably coins out there right now worth little, with a low market cap, which DO have the potential of blowing up 4,000% in a matter of months if not weeks or days. They are out there. Hard part is guessing right which ones those might be.

Don't take all that to mean you should selll your coins and get something else. Like I said in another post, I bought a bit of DOGE for my goddaughter's portfolio myself. I figure she might grow up to like dogs (who doesn't?) and so DOGE became a part of the small "high risk" part of the portfolio.

I just felt it was important to highlight all these issues, and the mistake that can be so easily made to look at a coin with a low price. Just because it's worth a tiny fraction of a penny doesn't mean it can blow up to a dollar or even a penny. You gotta look at the details.

 

[El_Machinae]

Don't take all that to mean you should selll your coins and get something else.

That's the summary of my suggestion, though.

 

[Kyriakos]

I could start a bootleg bitcoin, named bicoin, and also argue it was pro-lgbt if called out.

 

[RobAnybody]

I just checked the charts and SHIBA is performing while most other coins are stagnating right now. So maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about

You really should read up on market caps though.

I totally get what you are saying, & appreciate you doing more research than I have done.

However, I was saying if SHIBA goes DOGE I will be retiring on multiple yachts. I meant that as silly hyperbole. I did not in any way mean for that to be taken as a serious prediction of what will happen. fwiw, I do not think that's going to happen & sadly do not actually see multiple yachts in my future.

All I'm hoping for with SHIBA is it gets remotely close to that $0.002123 you mentioned. And "remotely" actually means quite far away in this instance. I'm watching the number of zeroes after the decimal. When I bought in, it was at 5 zeroes. Even now (when it's at four zeroes after the decimal), you could buy *millions*, or even 10's of millions, of SHIBA.

So, yes, in some magical world, it goes full DOGE & I build my own penis-shaped rocket to space like Bezos then decide which mansion I want to live in this week. I'm not in any way realistically expecting that. I'm hoping it gets three zeroes after the decimal (it's hovering around $0.00007) so that's certainly a short-term possibility. If it somehow gets to two zeroes after the decimal, I'm definitely cashing out, although I probably will long before that (while keeping some on the off-chance of a miracle).

 

[warpus]

IMO if you are willing to wait 3-4 years, your dreams might very well come true. But it's tough to say, since SHIBA does not rely on its tech but rather its community. And it's just hard to guess what is going to happen to the community over that period of time. It's easier to analyze the tech behind a token and their dev team and conclude that you feel that the tech will lead to something in the future, and that it has use cases, etc.

No coin in existence is going to reach Bitcoin's stature anytime soon (except maybe ETH?), so the $0.002 for SHIBA is very out of reach (for now). All IMO, but also simple math

@Kyriakos Anybody can create whatever blockchain token they want, it's a bit of an open-ended market like that. From what I understand though, you would have to provide liquidity if you want people to be able to trade it. I was reading a story about a guy who accidentally created one by screwing around with a script (and accidentally running it). IIRC he gave it a catchy name and it attracted some attention, but it was more like an experiment and not really a serious project. If it were a serious project it would likely need a decently sized war chest to finance everything. What is commonplace enough is scammers creating a coin that appears to be a solid project.. but leads to a rugpull.. a scenario in which the value of the token/coin plummets to $0, all investors lose all the money they spent on it, and the dev/team running away with the $$

So in theory you have the power to do such a thing, if you really wanted to.

 

[RobAnybody]

IMO if you are willing to wait 3-4 years, your dreams might very well come true. But it's tough to say, since SHIBA does not rely on its tech but rather its community.

Oh, exactly. It's a collectible. Fueled totally by speculation. FOMO, more specifically.

That means it can go to $0.00 tomorrow. But it's a two-edged sword. A fun two-edged sword. Some random influencer can send it to the moon. Snoop Dog changes his name to Snoop Doge & DOGE skyrockets. SHIBA is a "let's all get rich!" play, not a smart play. I've said that upthread. But if Ariana Grande posts on her Instagram holding her Shiba-breed dog while endorsing SHIBA, this thing can skyrocket. If that doesn't happen, who cares? I'll ride the slow, steady increase. If it does, though, so much the better.

It's easier to analyze the tech behind a token and their dev team and conclude that you feel that the tech will lead to something in the future, and that it has use cases, etc.

This is absolutely true. And if you want my "not fun, but long term" play, it's easily just to hold Ethereum.

The other long-term option I can see is Compound (COMP), which allows people to parley their held coins into assets other people can borrow, to fund future ventures that require those coins. All the while, the coins you put up earn interest, & are safe (to the extent any of this is safe). I have literally 1.28 "Compound" coins, so not pumping, just saying.