The end of free will?

civvver

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I was listening to NPR Tuesday and not sure who the guest was, but they were talking about what's now called the surveillance economy, where companies like facebook entice you into staying on as long as possible to gather and sell more data about you. There was a caller who asked about free will and how this relates and it was a good discussion.

I googled it and found this article. Not by the guest but a good read.

Do you think we are headed for some dystopian future where big data predicts all the best outcomes and our will is taken away?

Think about it right now, all the decisions that big data is already influencing. We have dating sites like match and eharmony that match you based on data. You still get final choice but the influence there is strong. We have medical decisions greatly influenced by data and genetic mapping is going to add even more weight to this. Oh you are 90% predicted to have a type cancer based on this gene, so do this preventative treatment now. It's coming.

Then the stuff people consider harmless, like book and show recommendations, and, at least until the Russian hacker facebook stuff, news feeds.

If you've ever seen the movie minority report you know how scary this could become. In that movie, instead of using big data to predict behaviors the government has found three telepathic siblings who have the gift of precognition. They can see the future. So they dream and see murders in the future and the police go arrest those people for crimes they haven't committed yet, but will in the future.

I could absolutely see a government doing this with big data. Oh based on your biology and genetics and upbringing and personality tests, you have a 98% chance of becoming a murderer, so we're going to lock you away. What's the sacrifice of a 2% chance of error vs the safety of the public? And many people will give up free will for that sense of security. And then whoever controls these algorithms will be in complete control of everything else.

In a sense we already do this, or want to do this on a much smaller degree. We have background checks for buying guns and we want to expand these even more and include mental health checks. We decide, based on statistical evidence, that certain people are more likely to commit crimes with guns and thus we take away their freedom to choose to own a gun. Most people are fine with this, as am I, because they either don't see the necessity in owning a gun, or they weigh public safety much higher that an individual's right to own a gun, or they simply don't even see that as a right. It seems easy to agree with in this context, but that scope of rights could be taken so much further.

So what do you guys think? Is this along the lines of worrying about an AI driven robot take over? Cus I do not believe that will ever happen. But I could very much see a society in which big data drives everything and choice and freedom are completely lost.

Or would that actually be a utopia? If all of your heart's desires are predict and met ahead of time, you're given everything you want for optimum happiness before or at the moment you know you want it, would that be amazing? The advances in genetics alone could save tons of lives. And maybe we don't have to lock away the future criminals in a traditional jail, maybe they just have an AI surveillance put on them so they can't do anything naughty. Or maybe they do go to jail but jail is awesome, like a spa vacation. Cus if everything is optimized we could afford it. I think the big data proponents envision this type of future without considering how just a few people would control everything.
 
I agree with you about some things, and dangers of a controlled society, but I do disagree with your premise on data collection and recommendation.

I feel data collection and analysis can help you, I view it sort of like as a filter to do searching for you so can find what you want much more easily. You have potentially billions of choices when you want something, do you really just want that all in a huge jumble you need to work through on your own? Don't you feel it's valuable if some algorithm knows what you wants, and finds things for you that you might not know about otherwise? I guess I sort of view this more like filtering, and I'm not forced to buy anything, I'm just being presented with personalized choices, but I still totally can do whatever I want.

I'm much more afraid of something from Brave New World, where you're conditioned to want certain things, and I do very much believe you can see this even today, just not as overt as you can read about in that book. I feel when you're being told what you need, when you're told what you want, then you have risk of losing your free choice.
 
Free will never existed

Don't you feel it's valuable if some algorithm knows what you wants, and finds things for you that you might not know about otherwise?

I don't, no.
 
A few liberal states now have red flag laws with extreme risk protection orders.

Basically, if you have broken no laws, the cops will come and seize your guns anyway if you are deemed a risk.

Liberals put liberty far behind caring and fairness when considering moral priorities, so a soul crushing nanny state should be possible if it is sold under safety considerations equally applied to everyone.

I think Oregon is considering mandatory home visit inspections for all newborn babies.


I don't think big data will lead to a terrible future unless used in a social credit system like China.

Having payment processors like Visa and Mastercard cut people off for their politics is more alarming than big data currently.


Having no choice in certain matters does not invalidate free will.
We are born with mouths and no chlorophyll in our skin, so we MUST eat plants if not animals to survive.
Due to Earth's gravity well, 99.999999% of us will perform this survival on Earth's surface.
Due to cell senescence, even with 0 health problems our lives will end 120 years after our birth.
Due to our brains releasing dopamine when we encounter familiar things and fear when we encounter new things, the deck is stacked against change unless you are an adrenalin junkie.

Our one saving grace is we feel joy when creating something.
Or contentment when we encounter something interesting.

If happiness was the goal, 24 hour drugs would be the solution.
If going to heaven was the goal, we'd have a machine murdering all the newborns.

Life is about surviving and creating something interesting, or we might as well be fish.
 
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"Deus ex machina " (A god from the machine) . Given human innate need for being watched coupled with the need to have some "higher power" I personally think that human-made AI god is a matter of time. Already man has made a huge progress towards automatization and making some decision making machines and let's face it - it's practical . The problem is that machines do not understand yet that human might lie about what they like or dislike, know or don't know, etc. The data has always been (mis)used by governemnts all over only now we have better tools to collect it (google really is spying on us ;) )
 
I don't think free will really matters in this debate.

A good data driven algorithm which is supposed to aid you in selection needs your choices as input to train itself. Without your choices, it could just apply a generic model for someone like you when making the pre-selection for you. when it uses your choices as input, it can produce much more accurate results for you. So it will offer you real choices. Not always, but at least from time to time. And then it will use your choices to influence future pre-selections. Any algorithm without access to your previous choices will produce much worse results, so whoever runs the algorithm is very much interested in you making some decisions.

Of course, there are other areas, in which someone might be interested to take away your choice. But I don't think it helps to frame that in the context of free will. If the state decides to unjustly imprison you, it doesn't matter much whether the decision was due to an error in the big data algorithm or due to the prejudices of a police officer. In either case, you might have the free will that you don't want to go to prison, but it won't help you any.
 
1. We have no evidence that "free will" exists, and that's without getting into semantics of its meaning. We haven't ruled out a fully deterministic universe for example.

2. We are already in a dystopian future. China's social credit program is a glaring example, and the EU is taking more gradual measures toward the same thing. US company collusion also - simultaneously cutting someone's payment processing from multiple sources in short time reeks of illegal collusion, but no company has faced consequences for this yet and it would be naive to assume it stops there.
 
A few liberal states now have red flag laws with extreme risk protection orders.

Basically, if you have broken no laws, the cops will come and seize your guns anyway if you are deemed a risk.

Liberals put liberty far behind caring and fairness when considering moral priorities, so a soul crushing nanny state should be possible if it is sold under safety considerations equally applied to everyone.

I think Oregon is considering mandatory home visit inspections for all newborn babies.


I don't think big data will lead to a terrible future unless used in a social credit system like China.

Having payment processors like Visa and Mastercard cut people off for their politics is more alarming than big data currently.


Having no choice in certain matters does not invalidate free will.
We are born with mouths and no chlorophyll in our skin, so we MUST eat plants if not animals to survive.
Due to Earth's gravity well, 99.999999% of us will perform this survival on Earth's surface.
Due to cell senescence, even with 0 health problems our lives will end 120 years after our birth.
Due to our brains releasing dopamine when we encounter familiar things and fear when we encounter new things, the deck is stacked against change unless you are an adrenalin junkie.

Our one saving grace is we feel joy when creating something.
Or contentment when we encounter something interesting.

If happiness was the goal, 24 hour drugs would be the solution.
If going to heaven was the goal, we'd have a machine murdering all the newborns.

Life is about surviving and creating something interesting, or we might as well be fish.

Maybe I overstated it, of course it won't take away our choice between options, but severely limit our options. Even a prisoner still has some free will as he can choose his own thoughts, but he cannot see a future outcome and make decisions to arrive at it. Most people can within some constraints. Maybe it won't happen but you can work towards it. That's what I think of as free will.

Going all philosophical and talking about deterministic realities is too vague. I'm trying to be pragmatic with examples. Like gattaca where big data and genetics decide your role in society.

AI and big data make your choices for you.
 
I don't think that actual ai is possible. Computer-dna hybrids will appear at some time, though.
Re data collecting, it is terrible, but i dont see how it relates to free will (whether it exists or not). Cause even if you want to do otherwise, you only communicate superficially.
 
If free will exists at all physically it manifests itself in an almost magical way from our understanding now. That said big data can be used and manipulated quite effectively and is to some extent already. Anything that is new and novel goes through pains of finding out how we want to regulate it.

It feels like I have free will but that’s probably me making myself feel better about my choices.
 
Free will is an interesting concept in spirituality, and by its nature that makes it an interesting concept in marketing. What you are asking is basically, "if your choice is predictable with 100% accuracy by an outside entity, are you really choosing?"

However, it isn't nearly as profound in the realm of marketing, because the predictive accuracy in that field is based on the aggregate. Whether it's the new media or the oldest media, prediction of responses has always been critical for advertisers. Image A makes 70% of the people pause before turning the page in a magazine, image B makes 75% pause; 32% of people have a negative reaction to image B and only 14% have a negative reaction to image A...and we make an informed choice which image to use in our ad because we want people to pause long enough to see it, but how much negative association can we afford? Increasing the accuracy of these measurements, and measuring for more and more factors, produces an ever more precise model of what the aggregate response will be, but it has no effect on what any given individual might choose to do.

Spiritually, it's much more interesting. Consider the time traveling observer. They have made a stop in 2020, and visited your house. They stopped for another visit in February. Now they are here, watching you at Home Depot as you choose a paint color for your living room. They saw your house circa next month and they know what you are going to choose. They also saw your house next year and know that you didn't like that and came back to another color and painted again...with a color they are watching you not choose. So, they have detailed knowledge of the outcome and can 'predict' with absolute certainty the choice you are about to make. Does that mean you have no "free will"? Is it the time traveler that has somehow 'taken' it?
 
Spiritually, it's much more interesting. Consider the time traveling observer. They have made a stop in 2020, and visited your house. They stopped for another visit in February. Now they are here, watching you at Home Depot as you choose a paint color for your living room. They saw your house circa next month and they know what you are going to choose. They also saw your house next year and know that you didn't like that and came back to another color and painted again...with a color they are watching you not choose. So, they have detailed knowledge of the outcome and can 'predict' with absolute certainty the choice you are about to make. Does that mean you have no "free will"? Is it the time traveler that has somehow 'taken' it?

I'm not convinced that's a spiritual question, rather than one that varies based on which (if any) theories on the unknowns of quantum physics hold up. There's also the question of whether causality-breaking time travel even allows the question to be meaningful. Time traveler might not know that painter travels back in time to convince them not to intervene after all in 3 seconds.
 
Quantum mechanics has already ruled out a fully deterministic universe
 
I'm trying to be pragmatic with examples. Like gattaca where big data and genetics decide your role in society.

AI and big data make your choices for you.

Sure thing, I've been spooked by this before.
https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/rise-of-the-genetic-database.637223/


Big data making my choices for me! :crazyeye:
Ok, let's test that.

Here are 3 Google searches for me.
Did google tailor the top 10 results for me personally, or does everyone get the same top 10 search results? (Most people don't look past top 30)

Google search bar (Jan. 17th, 2019; Central USA):
Abortion Information
Spoiler :

Gun Control
Spoiler :

Immigration
Spoiler :


Are those 3 screenshots matching what everyone else gets when they google those 3 phrases?

If they don't match, then Google is subtly manipulating us. :crazyeye:


EU already fined Google for search manipulating in 2017.
https://www.recode.net/2017/6/27/15878980/europe-fine-google-antitrust-search

Currently, conspiracy theorists are convinced it is occurring on Youtube.
https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2019/01/16/google-youtube-search-blacklist-smoking-gun/


**Edit**
Fixed, had abortion listed twice sorry. :sad:
 
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Shockingly true actually. As @uppi explained not so long ago.

Unless I misunderstand it, pilot wave theory is a deterministic theory and it's still in play (locality looks to be off the table, but that isn't required). Unless we get more information I think MWI should be favored, but we can't claim with good confidence that the universe isn't deterministic just yet from what I've seen.

Currently, conspiracy theorists are convinced it is occurring on Youtube.

Google openly manipulates crap on YouTube. Even subscribed channel feed has been altered such that most recent isn't necessarily what you see.
 
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