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The European Project: the future of the EU.

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Jan 14, 2019.

  1. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    Votes for "Green" parties seem to be the protest vote of those who are still comfortable enough that they don't what to deviate from the "center", only minor tweaks. They won't do anything useful with those votes. And I don't think they will translate to votes on the national stage, where it matters.Here in Portugal there is one "animals and nature party" whose thing is to mistreat humans allegedly for the sake of animal welfare, appeals to the urbanites who don't know most animals until they bite them :rolleyes: At least the german mange to have some funny protest parties.

    Not much changed in this election, as far as the EU is concerned. That depends on national moves. It will be interesting to see the final results in France, Italy and the UK. The others don't really matter for changing the course of Europe. It will also be interesting to see if the swiss manage to grow a spine and see an option in Italy.

    Funny new issue for the EU to deal with: two of the new European MPs will be political prisoners in Spain.
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2019
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  2. Akka

    Akka Moody old mage.

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    That's mainly due to our left being a bunch of idiots that thought smart to scatter into lots of small parties. Taking into account that the Greens here are completely left-wing, if you add them all it would go over 30 %.
     
  3. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

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    My take is that you can reliably find good people, who at least mean well, in parties from the far left to the center (sometimes center right as well). It's more difficult with the right because there are too many intolerant, willfully ignorant people there. So far, the construction of the EU has gone through compromise with the right because the right was dominant. If the right+far right don't have a majority there are many compromises that can be found within the leftmost half of the European parliament that are much better than what you'd get negotiating with the right.

    About the greens, it's not a protest vote. The EU greens have been reliably efficient in parliament, and have efficiently pushed for the priorities they were elected to defend despite not having a large parliamentary group. They kept their campaign promises, and deserve to grow stronger.

    Edit :
    Even just adding together the PS, Hamon's party and the greens (that were united in the last presidential election) you get to 23%, on par with the far right and Macron.
     
  4. Lillefix

    Lillefix I'm serious. You can.

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    Slightly offtopic. How's the French Green party on nuclear power? Any idea?
     
  5. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

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    Not in favor of nuclear power, due to the problems linked with dealing with nuclear waste, its high cost and the low bar currently set on nuclear plant security (whether from terrorism or from dramatic failures). But transitioning away from nuclear power (which is 72% of the power we produce, and 27% of the power we consume) is not really a priority.
     
  6. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Some more info from the greek result (also note that in Greece we concurrenctly voted for municipalities and regions, where Syriza also collapsed utterly)

    ND (center-right) wins by 9,2 points (at around 33,2%)
    Syriza is second, at around 24%
    Ex-Pasok (center-left) party is third, at 7,2 or similar
    Communist party is fourth, with 5,8 or similar
    Gd is fifth, losing a LOT of votes and percentage, ending at 4,8%
    Varoufakis also gets one euro mp (i suppose Varoufakis himself ^_^ ) with 3,2%

    Another funny element is that Tripras announced he would make a statement one hour ago :lol:
    I think that after the next general election Syriza is dead.
     
  7. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    Varoufakis ran, I believe I read, for some german seat? Proper europeist that he is...
     
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  8. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Not himself; his party runs in a number of euro countries :) (including Germany, and obviously Greece; here he took afaik 1 euro mp position)
     
  9. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    And now that this show of democracy is done, meet yet another german Stiftung doing the EU's propaganda work. This one even provided the EU with its current bureaucrat-in-chief. Give and take...

    Notice how the key people pulling the strings on the political messaging happen to be from the countries that benefit from the chosen type "european integration" the EU did. Before the EU these foundations had to organize bribery around many countries. Now they can conveniently coordinate at the top. It's institutionalized. It's the US model, with its "think tanks" and "lobbyists", to be imported in full.
     
  10. ori

    ori Repair Guy Super Moderator

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    Actually he ran on number one of the German list of his transnational party - did not make the cut for a seat (received 0.3 % - something close to 1% would have been necessary).
     
  11. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    Let’s call the election result what it is. It’s a really bad result for the EU project. It’s basically a big “enough is enough” result. The EU needs to reign in its ambitions because the people are not ready or willing. No means no.

    Green gains in Europe look nice but they are no gains in practice when SocDems drop twice as much. The real gains are with the nationalists and populist right. That’s the direction Europe is heading in 2019.

    The result in Sweden is (imo) terrible but very clear. Big gains for social conservatives across the board and the election winners is the nationalist party at +6%. Noticeable also is a big drop for the greens and feminist party who both had a phenomenal EU election 2014. The classical liberal party is imploding on itself which can only be helpful for the future (to think I actually voted for them in my first ever election is a bit vomit-inducing). Swedens election is a bit against the grain other than the nationalists in that the green and liberals are going backwards.
     
  12. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

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    Anti-EU parties are growing but the PPE is fading, so it's not as bad as it looks. It's possible that the EU will have a more left leaning coalition than in the past years after this election.
     
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  13. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    I hope you are right about that but I fear you are not. The EU is not a left leaning project.
     
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  14. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Three factual observations to cut through all the data regarding that "announced" surge of the "Eurosceptics":

    1.
    Excluding the UK and Italy, the "Eurosceptic" political parties gained 8 seats of the 751 seats.
    That's only 1%
    (definition "Eurosceptic" of Politico, used by many international newsmedia on EU countries on polling data)
    https://www.politico.eu/2019-european-elections/

    2.
    IF... if the UK is included... the "Eurosceptic" parties lose 3 seats of the 751 seats.
    The main reason: the UK Tories are part of the "eurosceptic" EU party the ECR and have voted accordingly in the past 5 years, including supporting Orban. And the Tories lost 15 seats compared to 2014.
    The overall effect for the UK was that 11 "Eurosceptic" seats were lost (the Brexit party gained 5 seats compared to UKIP in 2014).
    3.
    Salvini was very vocal about gaining "eurosceptic" seats. Compared to 2014 this is certainly the case. Italy gained 25 "Eurosceptic" seats compared to 2014.
    But Salvini does not mention that the surge in his own country is since September last year strongly declining !
    * In the May 2018 election the Lega (Salvini) and the 5Star (Di Maio) scored 50.03% of the popular vote. Enough to form a coalition government. The Lega had 17.35% and the 5Star had 32.68%.
    * In September 2018 the support peaked at 61% with the Lega at 32% and the 5Star at 29%.
    * In this EU election the support is down to 50.39% again, with the Lega at 33.64% and the 5Star at 16.65%.



    => No surge at all for the "Eurosceptics" in Italy, but a personal surge for Mr Salvini at the expense of his comrade in arms Mr Di Maio.
    Considering Mr Salvini's hunger for power, and desire to sit as PM on the Council table of EU PM's... let's see how he deals with his "Eurosceptic" comrade.


    To sum up the total "Eurosceptic" surge in the EU compared to 2014, including the UK and Italy as well, we get to a total gain of 22 seats, which is 3%.
    Not really much compared to all the international newsmedia attention it got the past months.
    Not much at all.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2019
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  15. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    You have that trademark liberal EU optimism Hroth, bless you, but here is what I see:

     
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  16. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    That's the only thing left for people who do not want to hear the facts.

    So..
    Just tell me where the facts I show are wrong

    Where are your facts ???
     
  17. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    You think you have provided facts in your post, don't you? You have provided an argument and so have I. There is a big difference. Politics is not a science.
     
  18. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    You think that the percentages of elections are no facts !

    Please explain...
     
  19. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    The result is factual and the result is more EU sceptic. Are you sure you understand how to read data? Data is data and pure - trends, values and analysis is subjective additives and open for discussion. What you do is discuss the data while presenting factual numbers.
     
  20. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    I do acknowledge that the Eurosceptics gained 3%.
    My opinion to that is that it is much less than the international newsmedia were talking about.
    Is that opinion fair enough for you ?

    I do show a historical factual trend of the Eurosceptics in Italy. That stays factual.
    My opinion to that is that Salvini claims unjustified a surge of eurosceptics happening where there is only a surge for his party and he is busy eating up Di Maio
    Is that opinion fair enough for you ?
     

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