The Myth of the US independent Voter

The 2010 midterms suggest otherwise. Everything on my list is stuff Americans are divided on and changing their minds about.
For a majority party to lose modestly while the economy is bad hardly shows that people hate Obama's positions. Actually I'm not really sure how a congressional election could ever indicate how mainstream a president is.

I can, and I did. When the majority of people in a country are, for example, fascists, that doesn't make fascism a centrist idea. It makes everybody in that country a right-wing nut. The political scale does not move. Human opinions do.

And Obama signed the repeal into law. That's left-of-center.
Well this is just completely false. When you describe politicians as left-of-center or right-of-center, you have to do that in reference to the politics of their time. How can you possibly come up with a single, unchanging, perfectly objective political scale? Where would you put the center? George Washington, from when we didn't even have an income tax or any real infrastructure? By that standard, every single president since, including the sainted conservative Reagan, has been a far-left socialist, and the words lose all meaning.

If you really think that someone who only does what most people in the country want is not centrist, it's pointless to discuss this with you. You're just going to label them however you want on your personal scale, regardless of any actual politics.


DREAM Act. Never say "never", unless you're actually saying "never say 'never' ". :) On the flip side, Obama did call for securing the borders (that's one right-of-center promise he did make) but he never followed through on it.
OK, so he endorsed one proposal for making legal immigration easier, while also endorsing a proposal to make illegal immigration toughter. Neither of them happened. Sounds like he's right in the center on that one.


Oh, yes he did. But he was very clever about it--he asked the Republicans to compromise, but never offered anything in return. Compromise requires both sides to give stuff up, or it's not a compromise. The only compromises Obama ever made were with moderate Democrats.
He compromised on financial reform, on health care, on tax cuts, and now on spending cuts. What more do you want?

No. It only means Romney is a liberal on health care. In general he's still right of center. I myself am an atheist who believes in evolution. Does that mean I'm a liberal? Hell, no. I'm conservative on almost everything except religion and evolution (and three other big issues, but you get the idea). You can't cite the exceptions and call them the rule. Obama has indeed done several right-of-center things, such as keeping the Iraq and Afghanistan engagements going, and beating the crap out of Qadaffi. Doesn't make him a raging right-winger. Nixon did indeed do a few left-of-center things, but he was still a conservative. Mostly politicians cross the fence for one reason, and one reason only: to save their jobs. ("Thy tuk mah jerrrrrbs!!!")
If Romneycare is liberal, what would single-payer or a public option be, then? Just way, off the charts liberal? Because those are real options too. He could have endorsed the conservative option (do nothing) or the liberal option (single payer) but instead he chose the middle option (Romneycare).

Here's some ways. (1) By saying/doing nothing on gay rights, for or against. (2) By staying out of Libya and not opposing U.N. involvement in same (bombing Libya is conservative; opposing any military action in Libya is liberal; doing neither is centrist) (3) By being less gung-ho about government stimulus spending (lots of such spending is liberal, none is conservative, a moderate amount is centrist). (4) By adding domestic oil drilling and nuclear power to his domestic energy plan (Obama was sneaky about this too--during his campaign, whenever he said "we need to explore alternative energy" he then said "i.e. solar, wind, geothermal", and always left out nuclear power. He positioned himself as anti-nuclear without actually saying it.....)
All of this is pretty much what he did. Oh and he talked a lot about "clean coal" too, but basically he did nothing substantial about energy policy.

And finally, here's something Obama has already done that's flat centrist: he didn't significantly change the tax code. Raising taxes on the rich would have been liberal; cutting them, conservative. Obama did neither. But that's an exception. The dude is still a lefty (but, again, not a socialist).
When it comes down to it, he really hasn't done much has he? I'd give Pelosi and the house progressive caucus credit for almost all of real liberal legislation that passed during his time in office. Obama just signs it into law, while echoing republican talking points in his speeches.

Oh... and one more thing about trying to compromise with republicans. How do you compromise when their leader in the senate is saying things like this: "MCCONNELL: The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president." ?
 
Examples, please! Unless my newspaper is secretly the Pravda in disguise, Obama has capitulated on many elements in in various proposals, including today where he broached medicare cuts for the budget plan. He has compromised his position away, and you say he isn't compromising?
He is now. My precise words (which got lost in the quote war) were that Obama did not compromise with Republicans for his first two years. Pi-r8's claim was that
<Obama> certainly never "locked the door" on republicans
and that's not true. Obama only locked the door once. The lockout lasted two years.

In every case Obama has tried to find common ground
Not true. Obama's only movements to the right were never in chambers with Republicans--they were with Democrats. A compromise with Democrats is not a compromise with Republicans, who were shut out of the health care reform debate (and all others I know of) entirely until after 2010. Further: while some of Obama's movements were to the right, his final destination was always left of center.

For a majority party to lose modestly while the economy is bad hardly shows that people hate Obama's positions.
It shows exactly that. If the voters were happy with him they would have removed Republican roadblocks from Congress instead of adding more.

Actually I'm not really sure how a congressional election could ever indicate how mainstream a president is.
Here's how: the American public is itself mainstream and centrist as a whole. Democrats and Republicans are not centrist themselves, but they hover very close to the center compared to, say, socialists and the American Constitution party (which are far-left and far-right respectively). So, when both Democrats and Republicans vote for a guy in huge numbers, and then stick with him--that's a mainstream guy. Reagan and Clinton are the only examples I can think of. Bush and Obama, on the other hand, are both gigantic dividers. Bush Jr. was both the most-loved and most-hated American President ever (yes, both at the same time). And the voters didn't go for Obama because they loved him, they went away from Bush Jr.

Well this is just completely false. When you describe politicians as left-of-center or right-of-center, you have to do that in reference to the politics of their time. How can you possibly come up with a single, unchanging, perfectly objective political scale? Where would you put the center?
Easy. The far-right end of the political scale stops at "complete rejection of social equality"; the far-left end stops at "classless society". There's no way to get "less than zero social equality" and no way to get "more than total equality". For most of history, the human race hovered almost always at the far right end of that scale (no doubt folks will come up with exceptions, and that's exactly what they are--exceptions). In between the two extremes, a good way to spot radical-left or radical-right regimes is to watch and see if people get ostracized merely for having a dissenting opinion. If such people get ridiculed? Fairly radical. If they get arrested? Seriously radical. If they get shot? That's how you know when a government has bumped either the very left or very right end of the political scale.

OK, so he endorsed one proposal for making legal immigration easier, while also endorsing a proposal to make illegal immigration toughter. Neither of them happened.
Correct that far. But Obama is still pushing forcefully on the DREAM Act, while his claim to securing the border stopped exactly there--at "claim" status. So, no. Obama's not in the middle here. He made two promises, one on the left and one on the right. His actions (continuing to push the DREAM Act and other pro-immigrant stuff, as well as opposing Arizona's attempt to secure its own border) are solidly left-of-center.

He compromised on financial reform, on health care, on tax cuts, and now on spending cuts. What more do you want?
I want actual financial reform, and actual health care reform (instead of useless boodoggles that don't solve the underlying problems). And he has only said he will compromise on tax cuts and spending cuts--I want him to actually keep those promises (too soon thus far--time will tell).

If Romneycare is liberal, what would single-payer or a public option be, then? Just way, off the charts liberal?
Not quite that far, but distinctly left of Romney (single-payer veers fairly close to socialism--but not quite)


When it comes down to it, he really hasn't done much has he?
Exactly. Though not for lack of trying.

Oh... and one more thing about trying to compromise with republicans. How do you compromise when their leader in the senate is saying things like this: "MCCONNELL: The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president." ?
Every politician gets that. The Democrats wanted Reagan to be one-term (otherwise they wouldn't have run Carter or Mondale against him), the Republicans wanted Clinton to be one-term (same reason, different opponents). The Democrats want every Republican in Congress to be one-term, the Republicans want every Democrat in Congress to be one-term. Everybody is always trying to unseat The Other Guy. You compromise in the face of that by simply gritting your teeth and ignoring the part where the other guy is saying "hi, I hate you, but we really need to reach a deal on X".

:gripe: Holy cow, that was a long one. I need a break. Reading War and Peace again is sounding real tempting right now....... :D
 
The Democratic Party ran Carter against Reagan because they wanted Regan to be a one term president? Are you implying that Carter lost his reelection on purpose just so that Reagan could be blamed for the bad times he expected in the early 1980s?
 
Every politician gets that. The Democrats wanted Reagan to be one-term (otherwise they wouldn't have run Carter or Mondale against him), the Republicans wanted Clinton to be one-term (same reason, different opponents). The Democrats want every Republican in Congress to be one-term, the Republicans want every Democrat in Congress to be one-term. Everybody is always trying to unseat The Other Guy. You compromise in the face of that by simply gritting your teeth and ignoring the part where the other guy is saying "hi, I hate you, but we really need to reach a deal on X".


And yet you, and millions of others, keep voting for these politicians, all of which non-coincidentally are Republicans and Democrats. Time and time again.

Albert Einstein:
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Any reasonably intelligent voter would recognize that even mentioning "one-term for so-and-so" as a primary campaign goal is ludicrous. Obviously that is why you're running AGAINST the guy. When you blatantly highlight it as a goal, reasonably intelligent people begin to pick up on the fact that you have nothing of any substance to offer.

It's really not that difficult. This goes for everyone voting for Republicans and Democrats. Any idiot can produce a laundry list of completely moronic statements uttered from Repub./Dem mouths, the media outlets that are supposed to be objective but are supporting these Repub./Dem. politicians again and again. And yet...you keep...voting...for...these...people....! Why? Honest to god I want to know why.
 
In summary: most independent voters actually aren't actually very independent, and the ones that are, don't vote very often. American voters like to refer to themselves as independents because they think that makes the smarter, or more enlightened.

What do you guys think about this? Do you disagree? What do you think the political strategic ramifications of this information are? Do you consider yourself an independent?


I'd say independents really are independents. "Leaning" towards one party has to be quantified with follow up questioning if you're going to use it to say they are really just "in the closet" about the affiliations.

I'd say indies are usually issues voters who don't have time for dogmatic politics. I'd say most indies want results, not dogma/ideologues/party politics.

E.g. If your strongest belief is in a right to abortion, you'd vote for the Democrat nominee, most likely, even if you don't like their spending patterns, if you were an indie.

E.g. If you strongest belief is in curbing deficit spending as an economic solution, you'd certainly vote Republican, even if you detest the "family values" platform.

So I'd say the indie voter really does exist. The "leaning to party" thing implies an overlap of ideals with a particular party and the indie, but imho, doesn't imply they are "in the closet". Remember that with winner takes all bipartisan system, many people have a damned if you do, damned if don't response to voting, which is why voter apathy is chronic American problems. Many people can't be bothered to vote unless they want immediate results, or are vehement on a specific issue. I'd say that is why there are single, defining issues in elections (e.g. in the past it was Abortion, Iraq, then the Economy).

The single issue partly defines the party, but also transcends politics. Which is what an idie is attracted to.
 
Jeez political binaries are silly.
 
He is now. My precise words (which got lost in the quote war) were that Obama did not compromise with Republicans for his first two years. Pi-r8's claim was that
Every president is like that. Why bother compromising with a petulant group you don't need support from?
 
Here's how: the American public is itself mainstream and centrist as a whole. Democrats and Republicans are not centrist themselves, but they hover very close to the center compared to, say, socialists and the American Constitution party (which are far-left and far-right respectively). So, when both Democrats and Republicans vote for a guy in huge numbers, and then stick with him--that's a mainstream guy. Reagan and Clinton are the only examples I can think of. Bush and Obama, on the other hand, are both gigantic dividers. Bush Jr. was both the most-loved and most-hated American President ever (yes, both at the same time). And the voters didn't go for Obama because they loved him, they went away from Bush Jr.
I really don't know what to say, to someone who thinks Reagan was a centrist, but Obama is a huge liberal. I think your views are so far off to the right that it's distorting your view of what the left actually wants. Compare obama to, say, any head of state in Europe.
 
I really don't know what to say, to someone who thinks Reagan was a centrist, but Obama is a huge liberal. I think your views are so far off to the right that it's distorting your view of what the left actually wants. Compare obama to, say, any head of state in Europe.

http://firedoglake.com/2011/07/06/a...eagan-wasnt-right-wing-enough-for-todays-gop/
The notion that Ronald Reagan couldn&#8217;t make it out of the primary in today&#8217;s Teahadist GOP has been a favorite meme on the left for years. After all, Reagan raised taxes eleven times, signed one of the largest tax increases in US history, signed a SHAMNESTY! bill, sought to ban nuclear weapons, passed one of the most liberal abortion laws in the country, was a former union president as well as a divorced former Democrat who was married to a practitioner of astrology.

I'd agree with the argument that Reagan had centrist trappings and was populist
Spoiler :
ElectoralCollege1984.svg
, by the mid-point of his terms.

I don't think the popular vote of any of the other presidents mentioned really comes close to Reagan, except Bush Jr.
Spoiler :
ElectoralCollege2004.svg
though (e.g. Clinton, Obama).

How would one argue centrism in terms of the popular vote? A 10% win over the nearest competitor? What if there is an indie candidate who has a significant proportion, e.g. >5%, such as Perot who got 20% once? Is the nation to fragmented then to have a centrist candidate? Or just fickle?

Or is one going to argue centrism strictly on some set of ideological values (e.g. favors SOME welfare, favors SOME interventionism, favors SOME military spending, i.e. favors SOME socialistic intervention)?
 
Gitmo is still open, warrantless wiretaps and enhanced interrogation are a-ok, increased military aggression and spending, tax cuts for the rich, increased offshore drilling, subsidies for big oil, the 1993 Republican plan for health care reform was enacted, opposes gay marriage..

How is he "Left wing"?
 
I really don't know what to say, to someone who thinks Reagan was a centrist, but Obama is a huge liberal. I think your views are so far off to the right that it's distorting your view of what the left actually wants. Compare obama to, say, any head of state in Europe.

The only measure that's important to Obama's leanings is the US political landscape. How he would sit on the European scale is irrelevant. The fact that no right-winger considers him conservative should say something. That you don't think him liberal enough doesn't mean he isn't liberal compared to the average US citizen.
 
Gitmo is still open, warrantless wiretaps and enhanced interrogation are a-ok, increased military aggression and spending, tax cuts for the rich, increased offshore drilling, subsidies for big oil, the 1993 Republican plan for health care reform was enacted, opposes gay marriage..

How is he "Left wing"?
Pointing to his failure to change everything you support doesn't mean he is right wing.
Your statements are filled, not surprisingly, with errors.

He didn't cut taxes for the rich. He simply didn't let the BUSH tax cuts on them expire. That is not him cutting taxes, but maintaining the current rate. The rich have already seen tax hikes under Obama, and stand to see more with the ACA.

He certainly has not increased offshore drilling, in fact, his admin put up moratoriums on it (which many have considered illegal).

Subsidies for big oil is American as apple pie, it is not left or right.

The ACA is not the 93 Republican plan... it is funny how lefties try to make this claim.

He certainly does not oppose gay marriage... and has supported dropping Don't Ask Don't Tell for the military.

He tried to get cap & trade through, this is a left wing plan.

He is apparently going to go for more gun control in the wake of the Gifford shooting.
 
The ACA is not the 93 Republican plan... it is funny how lefties try to make this claim.
Please, do inform me of the differences. The most controversial claim was the mandate, which was the key to the old republican plan.
He is apparently going to go for more gun control in the wake of the Gifford shooting.
You said apparently. He hasn't done anything on it, much to my dislike. A simple system of permits would be nice, but he hasn't even broached that subject.
 
The job of politics, however, is to change minds, not to read them. Politicians attempt to shift the centre of gravity in their party's favour. That's the other half of the tussle.

Once again Mise earns his self-appointed title :hatsoff:

Media reports often treat them as some kind of monotheistic group (Obama needs to do better with Independents!), as if they are a Centrist group with similar political interests. This is not true.

I think the original version of Murphy's Law must have been "anything the media can get wrong, they will." Then he generalized it a little.

How would one argue centrism in terms of the popular vote? A 10% win over the nearest competitor?

No, unless you already have a measure of the competitor's centrism or extremism. In which case, just apply that measure directly. Also, don't use the re-election results: those are a matter of perceived job performance more than ideological correctness.
 
Please, do inform me of the differences. The most controversial claim was the mandate, which was the key to the old republican plan.
It is really quite moot, as it never had anywhere near the votes to pass, because most republicans didn't even support it... Just because a handful of repubs or dems comes up with an idea, doesn't give the entire party ownership.
This insistence on talking about it is clearly a left wing talking point regurgitated from huffington post or some similarly biased source... an attempt to blame shift, which is a hallmark of the Obama Admin (still blaming Bush for his economy of over 2 years).

You said apparently. He hasn't done anything on it, much to my dislike. A simple system of permits would be nice, but he hasn't even broached that subject.
Carney said they are working on it.
It's hard to do everything at once in between all that golf and NCAA March Madness bracket predicting.
 
Obama is right of the American centre, and will probably remain there until a tax raise comes on the horizon.
This makes no sense. You clearly have no idea about where the American center is.

I will grant that America is more right wing than most European countries, but Obama is nowhere near being right wing even by European standards.
 
It is really quite moot, as it never had anywhere near the votes to pass, because most republicans didn't even support it... Just because a handful of repubs or dems comes up with an idea, doesn't give the entire party ownership.
So you bring up a point and when challenged, you say it is irrelavent? Why even bring it up in the first place then?
If we look outside of the mandate, the individual parts of the ACA are pretty well liked, notably the restrictions on insurance companies dropping patients, lifetime caps, and the whole issue with 'pre existing conditions'.
(still blaming Bush for his economy of over 2 years).
If someone borrows my car and drives it into a tree, is it okay for me to blame him for driving it into a tree two years later?
The economy is like a supertanker: it doesn't turn on a dime. When the country is still suffering from the effects of policies implemented by the previous president or problems that went unfixed, it is still fine to blame him. Just look at how much blame Carter still gets, when most of the issues weren't his fault and beyond his control.

Carney said they are working on it.
"Working on it" and "serious proposal" are two very, very, different things. Besides, basic gun enforcement such as permits (much in the same way driving licenses work) is hardly an unreasonable requirement.
 
He didn't cut taxes for the rich.
He most certainly did. The Bush plan set the rates for 2011 and 2012. Obama signed into law changes to those rates. And that is just income tax. He also signed off on estate tax cuts and raises in exemptions that were far better for the rich than where things stood when Bush left office.
 
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