The new "Ochi" ("No") is looming

[kramerfan86]

Hm, do you know how many years it took for this debt to become a reality? Since 1831. And systemic corruption is not only happening here, but elsewhere in the EU. It is (sorry) naive to think the EU wanted to play tough loving parent to Greece. The Greek debt is 2% of the EU GNP... It is nothing compared to the debt of France or other such countries. And for the last year you see it presented as if Greece is responsible for the global economy going to hell, which is simply laughable.

No naive is thinking Greece is some how the victim of Germanic bullying and just deserves to have its debt magicked away with no effort to balance the budget.

I mean look at how your debt is spiking, it doesnt matter that it took you since the 1800s to get here, what matters is how utterly unsustainable of a path you were on. They arent and shouldnt give you a bailout unless the spike is forcibly hammered back down.

 

[Kyriakos]

Our efforts are like those of the Trojans. We succeed in something, small, and now think we are over the hurdle. But Achilles is always there to shout fearfully at us (to paraphrase Cavafy).

The tax increase is simply too much, already was, and more was asked, along with the cutting of wages= deeper depression. It does not matter if you write off 70& of the debt, since if you kill the economy or zombiefy it you will have ensured it will again reach the previous debt. It is a vicious circle. Instead if the EU wanted to help it could have given us 2% of its gnp, and asked us to repay it 10 years later or with a yearly installment taxed at reasonable terms (asuch as 2 %)Not a ruthless loan, but not a gift either.

 

[kramerfan86]

At the same time had they just given you money with no demands as you can see from the chart you quickly would have mounted debt again and not only would you not have been able to pay back the loans in 10 years, you likely would have needed more loans to cover the newest debt.

 

[wilycoyote]

Fixed that. What, did you expect reasonable discussion after that:

If you really think it's a good idea to invoke Godwin in your opening post, you should reconsider the Red Diamond there. It's ridiculous.


And this should convince us to throw more money into your particular mess?

Getting upset at a nation that is basically paying off all of your debt... I have tried and tried, but I apparently just can't comprehend Greek politics or society.

 

[Kyriakos]

Getting upset at a nation that is basically paying off all of your debt... I have tried and tried, but I apparently just can't comprehend Greek politics or society.

Sorry but you lose, the debt has risen 50% by the time Germany announced its help to us last year. In what way did it actually pay off our debt? By increasing it through making a profit out of lending us with higher rate than it is getting the money itself?
Even in these forums (which are hardly the economists paradise ) this is known by now to those who actually follow the story. The deals up to now were secured just so as to buy time for western banks to buy insurances against the greek default. Nothing else was achieved, and certainly nothing in favor of Greece.

 

[kramerfan86]

By preventing your drunken pirate spending from causing you to default.

 

[Kyriakos]

And what exactly would have been worse than what has been going on the last year?

Iceland defaulted and no one really made much noise. Why would it have been a bad move for Greece to default on its own, writing off ALL its debt, last year, or even now? Russia and China offered to lend anyway, but were turned down.

 

[anandus]

Sorry but you lose, the debt has risen 50% by the time Germany announced its help to us last year. In what way did it actually pay off our debt? By increasing it through making a profit out of lending us with higher rate than it is getting the money itself?

If Greece had to lend on the market (if it would be at all possible, which I doubt) the rates would've been much higher and the debt rise would've been a multitude of 50%.
Also don't forget that because Germany is lending money to Greece Germany itself has a lower lender rating and needs to pay higher interest rates.

It's easy to try to point the finger (and don't forget there are 16 countries lending Greece money, not just Germany), but it'd be better if Greece would face the fact and focus on a renewed future instead of clinging to impossible wishes of old.

 

[Kyriakos]

I am not suggesting that Greece goes to the free market to get cash. Like i already said both Russia and China offered to lend. In fact China even offered to buy the whole of the greek debt.

 

[kramerfan86]

lol because history shows Russia and China have purely noble goals and just wanted to be nice. Funny you will complain about the germans loaning for influence but bemoan that noble China/Russia arent getting the chance.

Secondly, you are rather different from Iceland. First off you are a rather bit larger population and money wise. Secondly, multiple countries have the misfortune of sharing a currency with you so if you wet the bed you wet their beds too.

 

[anandus]

I am not suggesting that Greece goes to the free market to get cash. Like i already said both Russia and China offered to lend. In fact China even offered to buy the whole of the greek debt.

A source?
China did buy Greek government bonds, in 2010, just like about every other country in the world.

 

[Kyriakos]

Well, lets just say that they could not possibly have worse intentions than our good friends in the northern EU.

Still, the urological joke was nice.

 

[Leoreth]

The problem quite simply put was never Greece to begin with.

That's an interesting proposition especially considering how you argue in the rest of your post, because it mainly consists of statements like this:

Do the math: if they had given money as a 'marshal plan' they would have given as much as they already have, and this would be over by now, with Greece having zero debt.

All you're saying is that the rest of Europe is responsible for Greece's situation simply because they aren't willing to spend their own money to solve its problems. Greece is not entitled to foreign help, simple as that. It has nothing to do with the "brotherhood of nations" if one nation irresponsibly racks up more debt than it can handle (and please don't do cheap tricks like comparing your absolute numbers to France's ) and then expects the others to take the responsibility for your sovereign decision. It's also not a problem that started in 1831 or something like that. Things only started to spiral out of control after the convergence of interest rates (which in Greece's case meant lower interests) when Greece joined the Eurozone, which created an illusion of sudden affluence that wasn't really there.

The point: making debt was Greece's sovereign decision. How can its situation not be its own fault?

 

[Kyriakos]

http://www.tanea.gr/oikonomia/article/?aid=4638303

Dating from the 28th of June 2011. China claims that if needed it can buy the debt of some of the EU countries.

Also the chinese pm in his trip to Greece even before that had said he was willing to do that in our case.

But my point is that things could not have been worse than they are now no matter what machinations China had in mind, because the current deal is simply killing this country.

 

[wilycoyote]

Sorry but you lose, the debt has risen 50% by the time Germany announced its help to us last year. In what way did it actually pay off our debt? By increasing it through making a profit out of lending us with higher rate than it is getting the money itself?
Even in these forums (which are hardly the economists paradise ) this is known by now to those who actually follow the story. The deals up to now were secured just so as to buy time for western banks to buy insurances against the greek default. Nothing else was achieved, and certainly nothing in favor of Greece.

Fine, let me put it another way. Germany isn't FORCING Greece to do anything. Leave the EU, deal with this yourself. It just seems unjustified to attack a nation that is trying to fix YOUR problem.

 

[kramerfan86]

Well, lets just say that they could not possibly have worse intentions than our good friends in the northern EU.

Still, the urological joke was nice.

Actually based upon their behavior on the world stage they could quite easily have worse intentions. And even if their intentions are on par with Germany's how exactly is being under the thumb of a dictatorship and a quazi democracy better than being under the thumb of democracies like Germany and France? How, under what logic does it make sense to wish you could be under China's thumb than the EU's?

 

[Kyriakos]

Actually based upon their behavior on the world stage they could quite easily have worse intentions. And even if their intentions are on par with Germany's how exactly is being under the thumb of a dictatorship and a quazi democracy better than being under the thumb of democracies like Germany and France? How, under what logic does it make sense to wish you could be under China's thumb than the EU's?

There are other balances. For example most of the greek mercantile fleet (the largest in the world) is doing business with China. Russia, on the other hand, if for no other reason, has amicable relations to Greece due to history (not that this means they would help us out of the goodness of their heart, but at least there is some basis for amicable relations, unlike with most of the current lenders).

Also, i just do not see how things could have been worse, nomatter what kind of default was put in place. Surely never before had the debt spiraled that much than in the last year, precisely as a result of the supposed help we got.

 

[wilycoyote]

Actually based upon their behavior on the world stage they could quite easily have worse intentions. And even if their intentions are on par with Germany's how exactly is being under the thumb of a dictatorship and a quazi democracy better than being under the thumb of democracies like Germany and France? How, under what logic does it make sense to wish you could be under China's thumb than the EU's?

I really hate it when people suggest that, for example, life after the Cold War would have been better if the USSR would have won. Attacking the US or Germany and instead dreaming of the USSR or Russia/China is so incredibly poorly thought out and naive. Even in the worst case scenario. Being dominated by a democracy is far better than being dominated by authoritarian governments that silence their press and brutally oppress their own people.

 

[Leoreth]

Well it's not as if the other EU countries don't have a stake in Greece's well-being.

And if Kyriakos really prefers the Chinese as creditors, I would be happy if they're their problem then. But I guess it will be a pretty rude awakening for him.

Because opposed to everything the Greek media says, Germany would prefer not to "rule" Greece because it's really not an asset anyway, just a huge millstone tied to our necks.

 

[Kyriakos]

Well it's not as if the other EU countries don't have a stake in Greece's well-being.

And if Kyriakos really prefers the Chinese as creditors, I would be happy if they're their problem then. But I guess it will be a pretty rude awakening for him.

Because opposed to everything the Greek media says, Germany would prefer not to "rule" Greece because it's really not an asset anyway, just a huge millstone tied to our necks.

I suppose that is why Germany is buying assets of energy and water in ALL troubled med euro countries?

That Germany, so misunderstood