The last time i checked you were the one accussing a qualified scholar and historian as mentally ill. Your sensitivity is incomprehensible, but not surprising.
The problem, mghani, is that the "qualified scholar" you mention is disagreeing with
every single other qualified scholar on the subject. If there are multiple authorities on a subject, it is more likely that the majority will be correct than the majority. This is obviously subject to new information, bias, etc., but the more outlandish and extreme the theory - especially when it flies in the face of both established historical precedent, and simple common sense (as tk said, why would helping a bunch of reformers who wanted to strengthen the Empire, and succeeded for a time, assist the French and British in breaking it up?) as the hypothesis you've presented does - the more likely it is to be incorrect. Dachs can back up his assertions with far more than one single source. Hell, even I could, though I'd need to do more research since I haven't been a uni student in a long, long time, and I never really studied this subject.
I disagree with just about everything that you have said here. I maintain that the French and british had soft power influence over the Young Turks, based on the fact that a vast majority of their leaders were educated in the West. And I repeat again if that soft power took the form of Masonic societies inspired by French models so be it.( yes I said it again, Free Masons)
Mentioning the Freemasons in a thread in which you are illustrating a wildly outlandish, not to mention disproven, conspiracy theory is not a good idea. Many conspiracy theories involve Masons, almost as many as involve Jews, and they're all crap. The very mention of Freemasonry as a force behind a conspiracy makes you far less believable.
If you do not recognise the might of this soft power, the same thing certainly cannot be said of the sultan Abdul Hamid. I have given you the citation of the lengths taken by the Ottomman authorities to shield young students sent to Western Eurpe to study from this soft power--- in my edited post.
Paranoia on Abdulhamid's part, little more. Compare it with Stalin's treatment of German Communists, even Jews, who fled to the USSR from Nazi Germany.
Also, as tk said, simply because someone was educated in the West does not necessarily mean they would adopt Western ideals - and no, democracy is not exclusively Western in nature, as Japan, Mozambique and India, among others, have proven - nor does adopting those ideals necesssarily mean that they would favour the West. In the Russian constitutional crisis of 1993, where Boris Yeltsin launched an extra-constitutional coup against the democratically-elected Duma, Yeltsin was backed by the US, and pursued a very pro-Western policy, whereas the Duma, which had adopted Western ideals such as democracy, liberalism and Scandinavian-style social welfare (with several members of the Duma even openly stating that they wished to emulate Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal in Russia) was anti-Western in nature. In Iraq, currently, democracy has led directly to religious division and violent civil strife, a full-blown civil war that will probably result in an Iranian client-state led by Moqtada al-Badr shortly after the Americans pull out. Simply being a democrat doesn't necessarily make one liable to follow a Western nation's advice, pressure or leadership.
Also the Young Turk Revolution and its preceding incitement was associated with secret lodges which the Sultan Abdul Hamid passed laws to ban or restrict. These are recorded facts, not insane conspiracy theories. It would be much more conspiratorial to suggest that the Young Turks had almost nothing to do with the Young Turk Revolution as Dachs has done, one of those persons you suggest as being smarter thann you.
Except that it's an established historical fact that the Young Turks only showed up
after the revolution had taken place. It would be like saying that the French Revolution was the work of Napoleon; he certainly benefited from it and ended up in power, but he didn't start it.
And on the question of soft power, here is what it means:
Soft power is the ability to obtain what one wants through co-option and attraction. It can be contrasted with 'hard power', that is the use of coercion and payment. Soft power can be wielded not just by states, but by all actors in international politics, such as NGOs or international institutions.
Soft Power
Soft power also includes bribery, which would seem to be forbidden under the definition above. That's how Japan wins votes on whaling and tuna-fishing in the UN and the International Whaling Commission. For that matter, it's how Australia does as well, which essentially makes the IWC a bidding war between the two nations.
Be honest with yourself. Are you seriously not able to imagine Young Turks most of whom simply adored French and British Culture, and who studied in French universities, who while in these universities joined secret societies based on French models to create the seeds of a movement which tranformed into a revolution that ousted a decademnt regime, being coopted, even partially by French and British soft power.
Of course I can imagine it. I can also read an exciting Robet Ludlum novel based on that premise - it sounds like the plot to several of his books, except with 'Turks' replaced by 'Americans' and 'French and British' replaced by 'Russian or German.' But imagining it doesn't make it true. John Lennon's "Imagine" certainly isn't the case, and he certainly imagined it. The onus is on you, or your source, to prove or at least provide compelling evidence of this fact. Instead, the only evidence provided is that there was 'unseen influence' and 'back-room deals' which is code for 'we have no evidence any of this actually took place, but there's also no evidence that it DIDN'T take place, therefore, my rock keeps tiger's away.'
Unfortunately, in this case, even that isn't effective, since there actually is ample evidence that the British and French were not involved in the Young Turk revolution, that they were
alarmed by it, and that they had nothing to gain from it at the time. They certainly weren't planning on WWI that many years ahead. The British hadn't decided on WWI a week before it broke out, let alone six years.
And to your last point. No one had to be a genius to know that the inevitable political chaos of a revolution would bring about the dissolution of the Sick Man of Europe.
That's funny, since revolutions led to the strengthening of several other nations prior to this - Japan, China, America,
France (as I'll get to later) and England, just to name a few - and that in the immediate aftermath of the Young Turk revolution the Ottoman Empire actually got much, much stronger than it had been previously. It took the Balkan Wars to really illustrate its weakness to outsiders, and Turkey was basically gang-raped by every other nation in the area during the first of those wars.
For Christ Sake at the time of the French Revolution, France was one of the most powerful regimes of Europe. And yet the chaos of the revolution led eventually to the loss of Haiti--the Crown Jewel of French empire at the time.
Haiti became independent, not a dependency of any other nation, and even that was mostly through Napoleon's bumbling in trying to reinstitute slavery after the success of the Haitian Revolution, when he should have simply granted them autonomy and self-rule. Also, in case you didn't notice, the French Revolution led to a decade of French domination in Europe. Things like that tend to look pretty good on a nation's resume, especially since France still ended up more powerful in 1815 than it had been in 1789, despite its defeat by the Fifth Coalition.
Am sure the imperialist elites of France did not study history at their elite universities for nothing. Even in the modern Era is it that difficult to imagine that the invasion of Syria and the toppling of the Assad regime would lead to a sectarian break up of that country. Why would peoople call Syria the Yugoslavia of the middle East, then.
I've never heard it referred to in that way before this thread. And my family's Palestinian, so we know a little something of the region. I think Iraq, Iran and Israel have far more ethnic divisions than Syria, though it certainly has them. Every nation in the Middle East does, even Palestine itself (and that's ignoring the Jews).
In the case of Iraq, how many people knowledgeable of the region were not able to predict that the Kurds would get their own semiautonomous state, which in the future may well be fully independent, after the fall of Saddam. Even now as we speak the Turkish government has troops in the Kurdish parts of Iraq, desperately trying to stave off what many see as inevitable--- an independent Kurdish state.
I've never once heard anyone describe that as inevitable. In fact, considering the brutality of Turkish reprisals and the preponderance of Turkish military power - they are the military powerhouse of both the Middle and Near East - it seems highly unlikely that an independent Kurdistan will happen anytime soon. Especially since none of the three states which hold large numbers of Kurds - Iraq, Iran and Turkey - are supportive of such a move.
its not mindboggling genius, just the predictive power of intelligently studying history and real politik.
Unfortunately, that predictive power seems very misdirected in your case. Not only that, but I don't really understand why you're wandering off on this tangent anyway. Tk mentions nothing of this nature.
And would you think me a prophet to predict that the toppling of the Gaddafi regime may lead eventually to a political break up of Libya to its three historic regions. Tripolitania; Cyrenaica and the Fezzan:
No, I'd think you ill-informed and not at all well-versed in either history or
realpolitik. Libya is not breaking up anytime soon. The power in Libya right now is the rebel militias, which the government is attempting to incorporate into the army. Much as when Gaddafi was in charge, the army will be the power in the new Libya. The army has a vested interest in keeping the nation stable and whole, and therefore will do everything in its power to keep the nation from splitting up into two or three different independent states. Also, after a century of being one nation, there are very few Libyans who feel the need for independence these days. I've never come across a single article from a Libyan or about a Libyan where they have expressed a desire for a return to the three states of the past. Libya is actually far less likely to break apart than, say, Iraq.