Time to build the bomb shelter? WW3 discussion thread

[red_elk]

Here's one of the differences between North Korea and South Korea
http://theoatmeal.com/comics/north_south_korea

There's another difference, with "Nuclear launch detected".

 

[Akka]

It's a parting blow. Consider it a suicide bombing performed by an entire country. Its stupid and pointless (as you said, only the threat is useful). But that doesn't mean it won't happen.

It might very well happen if NK feels cornered and, as you say, want to go with a blow.
It won't happen as an offensive preparation for invasion (though if there is an invasion, it's certain they WOULD shell Seoul, if only for the psychological effect, but it would be secondary to shelling the military and not really a focused strike).

Unless the guys in NK are completely bonker, which is not something we can dismiss out of hand considering their past, of course.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The question of whether DPRK could break through the DMZ is missing the point entirely.

Their long range artillery would wreck hundreds of thousands of casualties in Seoul before it could be destroyed. Even if the war is won afterwards, that's a cost that few want to pay.

There's an "insanity assumption" here. I'm not saying it is invalid, though I generally think that if Kim were really just stupid insane he wouldn't be in charge of NK in the first place. Anyway, this is the insanity assumption that has to be made here:

Focusing their artillery on Seoul rather than military targets invites retaliation in kind. While South Korea may not be able to protect Seoul against NK artillery, North Korea is incapable of protecting any civilian population center from retaliation by South Korean air power. So this artillery barrage on Seoul is basically "attempted murder/suicide." It isn't even murder/suicide, because South Korea is left with basically all the rest of their population centers while North Korea would be completely decimated.

It would solve the "what to do with the 25 million North Korean refugees" problem though, so there's that.

Bottom line, North Korea is in no position to open the "civilian targets are acceptable" level of warfare because they would get the short end of that stick.

 

[Lexicus]

Bottom line, North Korea is in no position to open the "civilian targets are acceptable" level of warfare because they would get the short end of that stick.

Yeah, but I don't think there's anything to suggest that the leadership of DPRK cares about its own civilians. The whole point of this exercise for them is to do as much damage as they can on the way out.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Yeah, but I don't think there's anything to suggest that the leadership of DPRK cares about its own civilians. The whole point of this exercise for them is to do as much damage as they can on the way out.

The point of the exercise for them is to not go out. Starting a war they can't win runs counter to that objective. Starting a war that involves mass civilian casualties would be starting a war they can't win, which runs counter to that objective.

 

[Lexicus]

The point of the exercise for them is to not go out. Starting a war they can't win runs counter to that objective. Starting a war that involves mass civilian casualties would be starting a war they can't win, which runs counter to that objective.

Oh, who's talking about them opening fire on Seoul pre-emptively? That is silly.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Oh, who's talking about them opening fire on Seoul pre-emptively? That is silly.

Point is that any "NK starts a war" conversation is inherently silly. They'll be provocative jerks and do missile tests and bomb tests when everyone tells them they shouldn't, but as long as they won't start a war they can't win then they won't start a war at all. There is no war they could win, so there is no war that they will start.

 

[EgonSpengler]

So it turns out that USS Carl Vinson & Co. aren't heading for the Sea of Japan, and they never were. They're actually going to do some wargaming with the Aussies. Axis & Allies, I think. I swear this administration is an even bigger fustercluck than I worried it might be. No two people are on the same page about anything.

EDIT: No, wait, it actually has been turned around now. From The New York Times, a couple of hours ago:

The saga of the wayward carrier might never have come to light, had the Navy not posted a photograph on Monday of the Carl Vinson sailing through the Sunda Strait, which separates the Indonesian islands of Java and Sumatra. The picture was taken on Saturday, four days after the White House press secretary, Sean Spicer, described its mission in the Sea of Japan.

The Carl Vinson is now on a northerly course for the Korean Peninsula and is expected to arrive in the region sometime next week, Defense Department officials said. The White House declined to comment on the misunderstanding, referring all questions to the Pentagon. “Sean discussed it once when asked, and it was all about process,” said a spokesman, Michael Short.

Privately, however, other officials expressed bewilderment that the Pentagon did not correct its timeline, particularly given the tensions surging in the region and the fact that Mr. Spicer, as well as the national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, were publicly answering questions about it.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Don't be surprised if it changes course again and ends up in San Diego.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

That carrier has changed course because Trump's secret plan is to send it to Himalaya region to liberate Tibet.

 

[red_elk]

The carrier has changed course, because Ivanka watched another TV program.
Someone should take remote control away from her.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Soon it will go to it's final destination off the coast of Mexico and conduct airstrikes until Mexico agrees to pay for the wall.

 

[VicRatlhead5199]

Soon it will go to it's final destination off the coast of Mexico and conduct airstrikes until Mexico agrees to pay for the wall.

All joking aside, that thought probably has crossed Dump's mind.

 

[Commodore]

Have logistics been mentioned?

I mentioned it briefly in one sentence. Basically, North Korea, under current peacetime conditions, suffers from constant critical supply shortages including fuel and food. So it is reasonable to assume those supply shortages would only get worse under wartime conditions which would lead to any North Korean offensive grinding to a halt pretty fast.

 

[Broken_Erika]

They could always use horses to pull their tanks into battle....How many horses would it take to pull a T-62?

 

[Commodore]

They could always use horses to pull their tanks into battle....How many horses would it take to pull a T-62?

25 if you go by the two horse rule. So North Korea would need around 45,000 horses to pull their entire force of T-62s.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Trying to solve the fuel shortage by making the food shortage even worse sounds inefficient.

 

[Kozmos]

A long 2012 report on state of NK artillery threat.

http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/

 

[FriendlyFire]

A long 2012 report on state of NK artillery threat.
http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/

North Korea would have to initiate a nuclear barrage to crack open the DMZ to have any real chance of winning another Korean war.
And with each year North Korea economic and military is slowly eroding away any chance of a conventional war while costly would be won by the South, short of massive Chinese assistance again. North Korea airforces, navy and much of its armour is obsolete I seriously question the real state of Armored forces since it is expensive to maintain, I suspect many of them will be non-operational.

Besides NK got out of control, China stepped in and cut its aid for a month, NK got the message straight away and backed down