TJS1 -- Going on the Pill-age

[choxorn]

Only Carthage and Aztecs had Writing. Only other tech Aztecs could of offered would of been Masonry. I did think about posting something during my turn set, but decided to keep going. I wasnt sure if I would receive any reply fast enough, and it wasnt too major of a decision.

Which is why you really should have, before taking your turnset, said a few things about your general plans so we could talk about them. You only posted once before your set and didn't say much in that post.

Anyway, I believe this is the current order:

• Tusker
• Choxorn
• speedbird
  
• Nathiri (Just Played)
  
• Lanzelot (up)
  
• Robbus (on deck)

Tjs, I guess we can put you back in the order whenever you're back from your trip or whenever is convenient for you?

 

[Toxicman007]

When my dad was teaching me to play civ3 waaaay back in 2001, even then he said temples were pretty useless. After Conquests came out, he said the only temple worth building is the Temple of Artemis.

 

[Elephantium]

@Elephantium: remember: we don't want peace, as long as we are enjoying war happiness... (Only in case of an emergency...)

Very true. We'd want to make peace if one of our cities was threatened, but we have forces to deal with the Warrior incursion.

Trondheim should build another Archer in 3 after that Spearman, because we will want to revolt immediately when Republic comes in, so we should have a few defenders at hand in case we get a longer anarchy period... (Nothing would be worse than being attacked by another 3-4 Arabian units, losing some of ours and then not being able to build replacements because of anarchy... )

Unfortunately, that Archer won't complete until we're in Republic: 5 turns until Philosophy comes in means only 4 turns of production available :\

We should still pre-road a 4th city, but up to next person if they want to improve a tile around Bergen or another place instead, unless you think only 1 turn saved for the settler is enough. So I personally disagree with irrigating a plains/improving a tile around Bergen at this stage, until another worker, or the worker nearby is freed up. Yes, Bergen needs terrain improvements, but I think we need a pre-road ready to go.

Hmm, if it were my set, I'd have Copenhagen's Worker road the BG N of Copenhagen, then road the Orange Dot tile. When the Settler comes in, it'll cross the river towards Copenhagen, then on T2 move onto the Orange Dot and build.

OTOH, I'm not sure if we all agree on the Orange Tile vs. Yellow or Green as the next city site...

For Green or Yellow Dot, I'd move Copenhagen's Worker across the river, then road the relevant forest tile (either S or SW of the forest furs). With this plan, Bergen's Worker is free to keep my plains improvement plan

When my dad was teaching me to play civ3 waaaay back in 2001, even then he said temples were pretty useless. After Conquests came out, he said the only temple worth building is the Temple of Artemis.

 

[Lanzelot]

My preference for the next town would be Yellow: it can immediately work two BGs, and it'll have a nice fish and another BG long term.

Am I really up already?! Due to busy Easter weekend, I could post my action plan tomorrow and play on Tuesday at the earliest, if that is fine with you?

 

[Nathiri]

My preference for the next town would be Yellow: it can immediately work two BGs, and it'll have a nice fish and another BG long term.

Am I really up already?! Due to busy Easter weekend, I could post my action plan tomorrow and play on Tuesday at the earliest, of that is fine with you?

Hmm, if it were my set, I'd have Copenhagen's Worker road the BG N of Copenhagen, then road the Orange Dot tile. When the Settler comes in, it'll cross the river towards Copenhagen, then on T2 move onto the Orange Dot and build.

OTOH, I'm not sure if we all agree on the Orange Tile vs. Yellow or Green as the next city site...

For Green or Yellow Dot, I'd move Copenhagen's Worker across the river, then road the relevant forest tile (either S or SW of the forest furs). With this plan, Bergen's Worker is free to keep my plains improvement plan

Well, I think the AI will expand faster than us, so we need to try and claim our north fairly quickly if we want it. Since Copenhagen is where it is, I think we can safely build up by the wheat and the AI wont attempt to build down there so its basically a spot we can save for a later settler. Yellow and Green is all currently within 2 turns walking distance, which is better than our trek for Copenhagen... pre-road always preferable of course.

 

[Lanzelot]

Tech situation: we have 90 beakers left on Philosophy, which is currently due in 5 turns. In order to do it in 4 turns, we would need 22.5 beakers per turn. If I raise science to 100% and also switch the unimproved BG in Bergen to a roaded river grassland, we can make 22 bpt...
Why, oh why did you run science at 90% instead of 100%?? We could easily have gotten Philo a turn earlier, whereas now I will have to take extreme measures in order to get it. (Why is Bergen using the unimproved BG anyway? It does not need all those shields for finishing the Granary. It could first have used the roaded river grassland a while and then switch to the BG, once the road on the BG is finished. This would have gained lots of extra commerce, while still finishing the Granary in the same time.)

So anyway, I will do this and then use a scientist in Copenhagen on the last turn. This wastes 2 food, but gets Philo one turn faster.

Military situation: as we can't afford to let units from Trondheim and Bergen leave their MP duty (we would have to raise lux tax, which would mean bye-bye to Philo in 4 turns), we have to try some desperate measures in combat: we should attack with all three Archers now, even if two Warriors are on forest. Hopefully we will win at least two fights, and the remaining damaged Warrior can then be killed by the two survivors next turn. The Archer that is going to complete in two turns, will have to take care of the lone Arab coming from the south.

Exploration: there is another contact to be obtained, where our Curragh passed by a while ago:

Unfortunately we would have to retrace our steps for 7 turns. So the question is: keep going where we are, or turn around to pickup that contact?
No idea, what will be better...

Research during anarchy: I suggest we go for Literature now. It's a tech that is usually neglected by the AI, so we can probably get a few good trades for it. Map Making is not necessary, as we know two seafaring civs (Netherlands and Carthage), which are probably researching Map Making right now, so we can get it from them. And I want 2-3 early Libraries anyway, to cash in on our extra commerce from Republic and speed up the path to Invention.

Trading: Hannibal is willing to give Wheel, Masonry and 50g for CoL, so I will take that deal. I could then get another 30g from the Aztecs for the Wheel, and 14g from Russia for Mysticism. All that would give us a treasury of 122g, which would be very handy to make some deficit research as Republic, or to rush another Archer in case the Arabian war becomes difficult...

Other than that there is probably not much to do for me, as most of my turnset will be spent in anarchy...

 

[Elephantium]

Tech: Tough situation. It's worth it to try to hit Phil in 4 turns; losing the slingshot wouldn't be fun.

Military: What do you think about delaying our attack for a couple of turns? If the Warriors move East, we're golden. If they move South onto the forest, it gets trickier. Either way, we could move the Spear onto the Furs forest to guarantee that we can attack them on grassland near T'heim -- but I'm not sure if Trondheim can afford the loss of one of the roaded BGs for a turn.

Exploration: Derp, I thought that was the Netherlands. I'd say retrace steps; the westward Curragh will end up roughly in that area in another dozen turns anyway. We should build another pair of Curraghs from Copenhagen soon, too.

Research: Lit is fine.

Trading: All of that sounds good to me.

 

[choxorn]

If the Westward Curragh will get there in a dozen or so turns anyway, doesn't that make retracing steps with the Eastward Curragh a little bit of a waste of time?

 

[Elephantium]

No, I meant Westward Curragh will likely get to the area Eastward Curragh is approaching. It's more like 20 turns or so from the border in the screenshot.

 

[Speedbird 95]

Military decisions:

I am using the combat calculator function in TechCalc 2.01, the (new) link to which is here: https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/utility-techcalc.38631/

Here is what it says about our forest archers attacking their forest warriors:

Spoiler Try to guess our winning chances :

And here is our veteran archer on the hill vs their warrior on the flat land:

Spoiler Guess again :

This calculator doesn't tell us whether we have a profitable attacking situation, because our archers are more valuable than their warriors. So we have to find the break-even winning percentage and compare it with our actual winning percentage.

The formula for finding the break-even percentage is the same formula used in poker for making a call or a bluff on the river:

Breakeven % = Amount we risk / (Amount we risk + Amount of reward)

Substitute the shield cost of an archer for amount we risk and the shield cost of the enemy warrior for amount of reward, and we get:

x = 20 / (20+8)
x = 71.4%

(Note the AI warrior is only worth 8 shields on emperor level)

We want to fight the enemy units if our attacking chances are greater than (or equal to-(?)) the break-even percentage, otherwise the enemy is going to wear us down by out-producing cheap warriors faster than we can replace our expected casualties.

Spoiler The battlefield in 1500 BC :

We have 5 battlefield options in 1500 BC:

1. Retreat, as discussed by Elephantium. This will get tricky and I haven't figured out how to use our best unit, the veteran archer on the hill.
2. Sit tight for one turn, expecting the first two warriors to move into the flat land. We attack one of them next turn without risking our forces, or attack both of them but one of our archers advances and may be vulnerable. Our veteran is out of the fight & don't forget about the Arab warrior in the south. Also I would not be happy if the two Arab warriors fortify in their forest & are joined by the third warrior.
3. Our two regular archers attack now (70% * 70% = 49%) . If both the regulars are successful, then the veteran picks off their tail-end Charlie (88%).
4. One of our regulars attacks first (70%). If successful, our veteran attacks the remaining warrior in the forest (84%) and will advance if it wins. Our 2nd regular archer moves into the same forest square to provide defense, albeit unfortified.
5. Our veteran attacks first, into the flat land (88%). If the veteran is wounded then the regulars MUST attack and finish off the remaining two warriors

Spoiler My vote :

Option 3
Edit: I agree with Lanzelot

 

[choxorn]

I agree, Option 3 seems like the best.

 

[Elephantium]

I'm also fine with attacking now. If there were Spearmen in the mix, though, I'd be pushing for the retreat option.

Lanz, are you planning to finish T'heim's Archer or switch to Spear?

 

[robbus]

option 3

 

[Lanzelot]

Ok, option three seems to have general consent. Waiting is not really an option, because if the three Warriors advance like in the below picture (which is to be expected), then we have no way to use our vet Archer on the hill anymore... The enemy will have bypassed him, and then it is only two Archers vs. three Warriors, while now we have a 3 vs. 3.

If the three Warriors get too close, they will step on our productive tiles, possibly pillage a bit and in any case mess up our Philo in 4.

Regarding scouting I think now that going back to pick up that contact is best: the Curagh can then continue scouting that continent (there is still lots of unexplored land left there...), while the other Curragh will reach the spot, where the first one turned around, a little bit later from the other side. So nothing really lost here.

Not yet sure whether we produce a Spear or another Archer now. It depends on the outcome of the first battle: if all three Archers survive, I will produce a Spearman. But if we have high losses (or even if the Archers are only red-lined after the battle), I'll produce another Archer, so that that southern Arabian Warrior can be greeted with two Archers. With only one, the risk would just be too high.

 

[Lanzelot]

Exploration: Derp, I thought that was the Netherlands.

Nope, it's too far away from Amsterdam. From what F10 tells us, it is more likely to be the Ottomans. (And it's always good to know the scientific tribes, because of their free tech. Just imagine, if Russia draws Feudalism and the Ottomans get Engineering... or vice versa... We would only have to do Invention ourselves after finishing the ancient age, and then would be ready to roll...!)

 

[Lanzelot]

Another thought just crossed my mind: we definitely don't want another war at the moment, especially not against the Dutch. How about I use all that cash I'm going to pick up, for establishing embassies in Amsterdam and Moscow? Will make them polite, we can see who knows whom (and consequently which trades are safe) and we even get the option to sign an alliance agaisnt Arabia, if necessary.
We can also see Amsterdam's productivity and judge, how long it will need for our Lighthouse...

 

[Speedbird 95]

Amsterdam is building the Colossus. There is no guarantee they will start the Lighthouse in Amsterdam, for example if they acquire map making before the Colossus is done, they might start the lighthouse in The Hague. Or someone else gets MM & starts the Lighthouse before Amsterdam is done with the Colossus.

The Dutch are not very aggressive. I recommend we don't need an embassy until they actually start the Lighthouse in Amsterdam.

Should we try to get the Russians into an alliance against Arabia?
Or how about Carthage? (more expensive embassy there)

P.S.: We don't need to revolt as soon as we get Republic; we can finish a granary and a unit or two. In my solo games I have waited until a settler is ready, then walk the settler to its new location during the anarchy.

Should we change Copenhagen from a warrior to a worker?

 

[Lanzelot]

Elephantium suggested Barracks for Copenhagen, and I think that's best: we finally need to get a town started on military.
For a Worker I'd rather recommend Bergen: we have a Granary there and finally need to get our irrigation done, or we'll never grow... Trondheim and Bergen both need 3 irrigated tiles, and then we'll have a 4-turn SF and a 2-turn WF!! Our "expansion" will be like an "explosion" then...
(I'll also try and squeeze another Worker out of Trondheim before the revolution. Otherwise we'll get happiness problems during anarchy there anyway.)

If we want an alliance, then probably with Russia: Carthage could be at the other end of the world, so can't really hit Arabia?! So I guess an embassy in Moscow is useful in any case. More opinions about an embassy in Amsterdam? In the long run, any embassy will be useful. (We could also build one in Carthage, just to see, where they are located, and how productive they are. BTW: does anyone remember, where we met Carthage?)

PS: current prices for embassies:

• Netherlands: 42
• Russia: 38
• Aztecs: 45
• Carthage: 71

Looks like Carthage is really far away, perhaps even on a different continent.

 

[Lanzelot]

Started playing now and opened an embassy in Moscow: they don't have contact with Arabia?!? So we can't sign a military alliance, even if we wanted to.
I strongly recommend to also open the embassy in Amsterdam now. They are only "cautious", and I would like to have them "polite". And better to use the money for something useful than to have them try and extort the money from us...
Waiting for more input.

PS: our military is weak compared to the Dutch, and remember that we can't open embassies during anarchy. I think it`'s safer to do it now. (Especially as we want to concentrate on peaceful infrastructure build-up for a while, when we become a Republic. One early war for some happiness is ok, but two at the same time, especially with the Dutch being so close, might throw us back for quite some time.)

 

[Speedbird 95]

Spoiler We met Carthage here in 1750 BC :

Thanks to your analysis of Arabia reducing its offer for writing, I think Arabia has met Carthage and they may be on the same continent.

It's a bit early for something expensive like an embassy/alliance with Carthage, but in general we want most of our neighbors fighting against each other to soften them up before we attack them.

I am OK with a Dutch embassy but I would really like to use our gold to cash rush some more granaries - in Bergen + Copenhagen + whatever new cities.