Today I Learned #4: Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known.

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The phrase "correlation does not imply causation" bothers me. It bloody does imply causation. It doesn't prove causation. Imply means to suggest without proof or direct statement, and that is exactly what correlation does.
 
I completely disagree. That logical fallacy led to so many of our mistaken beliefs.
 
I completely disagree. That logical fallacy led to so many of our mistaken beliefs.
It has also lead to some of our greatest achievements, not least the water pump that "proved" germ theory.
Spoiler The original map that showed corelation between cholera and location :
1092px-Snow-cholera-map-1.jpg
 
It has also lead to some of our greatest achievements, not least the water pump that "proved" germ theory.
Spoiler The original map that showed corelation between cholera and location :
1092px-Snow-cholera-map-1.jpg
Sometimes there is a link. No one says otherwise.

But the fallacy is if you assume there's a link as a rule.
 
Sometimes there is a link. No one says otherwise.

But the fallacy is if you assume there's a link as a rule.

Thats the difference between imply and evidence. Correlation implies causation. A correlation is worthy of investigation to see if there is a causal link.
 
The phrase "correlation does not imply causation" bothers me. It bloody does imply causation. It doesn't prove causation. Imply means to suggest without proof or direct statement, and that is exactly what correlation does.

I think it does sort of imply causation, but it's quite important to remember it can imply that a different variable is causing the correlation between the variables you're observing.
 
Yes, there can be a 3rd factor causing 2 things, which are therefore correlated.
But the examples in Mary's link show that it's not the case for everything.
Other famous examples are the very strong anti-correlation between climate change and pirates, or the also strong correlation between Nicolas Cage movies and suicides. They are not related. A false positive, because if you just check enough data against each other, something will just fit at the end.
 
More examples of correlation implying causation. Imply does not mean offer any evidence for, rather suggest.
Not at all. Correlation simply means that two things are happening at the same time. That does not in any way imply that one is causing the other.
 
I think this is a difference in perception of what "does imply" means, frequency-wise.
If I say "implies causation", this would mean 100% of the time.
Certainly it might imply it sometimes, but not 100%, therefore you can't say "implies causation", because you'd need to tone that down with a "sometimes", or another indicator of frequency (or at least making it not 100%).
 
I think this is a difference in perception of what "does imply" means, frequency-wise.
I would say it is saying less about the frequency, as what it does to the reader. If something "implies" something to someone it suggests to them that the thing may be true. It makes no claim about the strength of that suggestion.

If I say "Look at all the tax breaks BoJo is giving his mates, I wonder what he is getting?" I am implying that BoJo is corrupt. I make no claim about the strength of that implication.
 
I think it does sort of imply causation, but it's quite important to remember it can imply that a different variable is causing the correlation between the variables you're observing.

There was an interesting article in Quorum magazine a couple of years ago describing the work of a
medical researcher who was using large amounts of "dirty" data to mine it for possible fruitful
avenues of research into new drugs and treatments. Most medical researchers want "very clean" data
(free of multiple factors like smoking, alcohol consumption, diet etc), but he has developed
statistical techniques to compensate for the fuzziness of the data.

One nice discovery was that there was a correlation between use of statins and the survival rate of
patients who had received certain organ transplants. It would not have been discovered anywhere as
quickly, if at all, if he had waited to get data where multiple factors were accounted for.
(Apparently, the best medical data in Europe at that time came from Belgium IIRC, but there was not
large amounts of it, and it took a long time to prepare, i.e "clean").

Of course, using "dirty data" requires very careful analysis. Matters like the "95% levels of
confidence" as measures of significance still plague some research fields. There are many who continue
to believe it automatically and magically provides statistical safety (and attracts grants and investors),
despite its complete arbitrariness.
 
"Correlation is not causation" is a cleaner way to say it.
 
a long standing thing and it has to mercilessly removed from the internet and whatever .
 
Despite their large size, Australian Bird-dropping Spiders sit on leaves or branches during daylight hours,
often in exposed positions.
birdpoospider.png
 
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