Turn 138 - 190AD

[Rik Meleet]

Fanta: MDI
Zoi: barracks
Boro: horse

Klixus is the only city in danger of Riotting
We can get Chivalry in 8 turns (with lots of scientist at -7 gpt). We have 376 gold.

C3B has Monotheism (but no Feud) and still lacks horses and Ivory.
CDZ has Monotheism (also no Feud).

 

[Rik Meleet]

Immo's have landed.
Our AC's have a 78.8% chance of winning if they attack non-fortifed Immo's. I don't think the retreat option is reflected in that.
Horses have 44.8% chance of winning. The Elite JT has 58.3% chance of winning.

 

[Ankka]

Attack with fast AC's first... and hope they retreat if losing. We don't want to give them a free GA this way.

Or of course you can retreat and see what they do.

 

[Provolution]

I know they sent that galley marine outfit to kill away that JT scout.

I say do the attack on the Immos the following way:

1. Follow up with decisive Ancient Cavalry Strikes of 78.8 % to be certain to mop up enemy resistance. We got two of those in case the Elite JT attack fails.

2.
Elite JT (soon obsolete) to attack Immo, we need to gamble here anyways, and I say risk our slow infantry first. Additionally the Elite may or may not give us a Great Leader, and this is probably one of the last chances for a majority opportunity gamble.

58.3 % is moderate, but given GL opportunity/more hit points and obsoletion, do it.



3. Finalize with Western back-up Cavalry of 44.8 % chance of winning, this chance will increase as SS Raptor and Barclay will have lost hit points in previous battles if they survived. Aggregated, our chances to win these battles should be more than 95 %.

4. Surround surviving immortals with horse-army at 1 tile distance, and pick them off if the first four units fail. If the RNG Gods are against it

5. Retain promoted units for COG mission, replace losses of COG mission from Horse Army. Ensure we got a DMZ mobile defense line covering more tiles.

 

[Rik Meleet]

We have 3 AC's on the tile. And 1 more horse who can reach. And an elite JT as backup (or leader gainer).

 

[akots]

5hp AC vs 4 hp Imm - win 78%, retreat 10%, lose 12%.
4hp horse - win 43.5%, retreat 25%, lose 31%.
5hp JT - win 58%, lose 42%.

Kill them with AC and pray we win. Or better run away though they would probably fortify in place.

 

[magnusmarcus]

Attack with AC.... If one retreats.....finish off with Elite JT

 

[RegentMan]

Send in the cavalry.

 

[Provolution]

Second MM...

 

[rcoutme]

The CoMA thanks all the civilians for their advice.
I believe in giving the enemy what it wants, especially when it happens to coincide with what I want. They appear to want to lose units; coincidentally, I want to destroy their units...

From Command Headquarters, Fantazuma:
To: Eastern Army Command

The elimination of enemy forces is to be conducted as follows. The elite JT's are to begin the attack. After their attack, send in the Ancient Cavalry until no enemy units are present. If the enemy, by some fate of extraordinary ill luck, is still on the field after the Ancient Cavalry attacks, send for the horsemen in the northwest to attack. If, however, there are still two Immortals left after the Ancient Cavalry attacks, retreat.

Contingency Orders are as follows: Depending upon the damage sustained by the units ordered into battle, the invasion may have to be delayed for the recouping of their strength. If all units are intact (even if injured), load the infantry units onto the fleet before moving, move the fleet as originally planned. If >2 units are destroyed, wait for further instructions. If 1 or 2 units are destroyed, follow Plan A with one exception...have one horseman from the hills move towards the east coast for pickup.

 

[Rik Meleet]

CoMa: are you sure about the JT starting the attack ?
The chance of victory is not overwhelming. We have a 1/16th chance (if victorious) to spawn a Great Leader, (so 58,3 / 16 = 3.64% chance) but a 100% chance (if non-victorious) that it gives C3B their Golden age (41,7%).

Personally I find a 3,64 % chance of a MGL compared to 41,7 % chance of a worst case scenario of a C3B GA very bad.

You told me some weeks ago that if your advise was bad, I could overrule it. I am planning on doing so, unless you post again here why you want to start with the JT. If not; I'm going to attack with 2 AC's and if 1 AC retreats (with the Immo damaged) I'll attack with the JT (unless the Immos need a 3rd AC attack).

I am planning on playing in about 14 hours from now; I hope you have time to respond.

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BTW: C3B does not know yet of our invasion fleet, nor the SoD that just dropped off. I deducted this by tile counting; if the C3B galley would have moved to a position that our fleet was visible; it would now be on a tile where we could see it. The Immo's can see 1 tile; the invasion force is 2 tiles away.

 

[Provolution]

I fully support COMA, aware of the risks, in fact JT opening was my first proposal before I amended it.

 

[rcoutme]

@Rik: Overruled...this one I have thought about extensively. There are many other tactical reasons for ordering the attacks this way. Please make the attacks in the order I sent them.

 

[Rik Meleet]

OK. the attack will be as intstructed. I just wanted to be sure the risks were known. And they are.
Thanks for the reply.

 

[Provolution]

This will be exciting, as it is a real gamble, and could have severe ramifications.
Still , we got the upper hand in this conflict.

 

[Goonie]

Don't attack with the JT first!

Are we suppose to blindly trust rcoutme's "many other tactical reasons," even if he doesn't list them.

It seems folly to me to carry out the attacks in that way with the risk of loosing much higher.

 

[magnusmarcus]

Don't attack with the JT first!

Are we suppose to blindly trust rcoutme's "many other tactical reasons," even if he doesn't list them.

It seems folly to me to carry out the attacks in that way with the risk of loosing much higher.

I don't agree with Goonie often but I must concur. Please enlighten us why we should not try to minimize c3b's chances of getting a golden age. Its very obvious this is there intent. Otherwise they would have attacked in force. Rik please give us the play by play if you can. We could determine Which method would have yielded better results.

 

[RegentMan]

I must board the boat and say that I don't want the JT to attack first. Elite or not, it has a nearly 50% chance of losing, giving C3B their golden age without them losing any cities yet. Send in the ancient cavaly first, then a JT if one damages an immortal then retreats. I have tactical reasons too; please do my way.

 

[rcoutme]

@ RegentMan. You have your reasons, I have the office of CoMA. Here are just a few of the reasons for this order.
1. If the JT loses, it is less needed for the attack later on.
2. If the JT wins, it can more easily board a boat and begin healing if it is the first (not last) to attack.
3. If the AC wins afterwards (let's assume the JT wins), it would be closer to the ships for embarkation.
4. If the JT loses, the AC's will follow up, and still be able to board ships, as they have higher movement than the JT, but if the JT attacks in the end, it will likely sustain damage and be too far away from any ships to be picked up.
5. The JT has a chance of getting a slave (1 in 3 if it wins)
6. The JT has a chance (albeit small) of getting a GL if it wins.

If you want the job of CoMA, then run for it. I was originally drafted 2 weeks after joining the team. I ran again and was willing to put my time, knowledge and expertise into the game. This is at a cost (but one I considered worthwhile) to my energy level, which is a significant cost for a CFIDS patient.

As for the possibility of loss and the obtaining, by C3B, of a GA. This war is going to get them a Golden Age sooner or later (unless the whackiest rng in the world has been substituted for the game) so I am not worried as much about their getting a GA as I am about using the tactical movements to the best of my knowledge.

Anyone who wants to, can start a thread on removing me from office and filling it themselves. I will humbly bow to the majority if they want my resignation. I took the responsibility of running the military, and will continue to order things as I see them until such time that I am told that my services are no longer desired.

 

[Provolution]

Well point is, using the JT will let us have the momentum with the fleet, as well as using the soon obsolete Elite JT to the maximum. 33 % worker and 7 % Great Leader chances are bonuses there. If we did a different calculation besides the simple win and military loss ones, and added points to the relative values of 1. Mobility Momentum for Cavalry and Eastern Fleet. 2. Opportunity for Worker 3. Opportunity for Great Leader 4. relative loss of JT to Ancient Cavalry and 5. C3B will get GA sooner or later, we may consider the percentage value of doing this operation worth 55 % for doing it and 45 % for doing the AC attacks first.

I know this is a risk, and we had the attack turn when we got our GA.

COMA was right during the Surprise Naval Battle of the Jaguar Sea (2 galleys taken) and the Javelineer Ambush at Isthmus Hill, where in fact chances were lower for us getting a GA if people remember. So COMA was right one out of one turns now, and we can assess his skills on five various turns of battle, three more to go, if he was right.

I would say, great leader and worker gains opportunities, the risk of sacrifice, the non-upgradeability of Elite JTs, the lost mobility of our force if we risk our ACs needed in enemy territories as well as the better sacrifice of JT to AC. Except for this battle, JTs are only good for scouting, decoys and some defensive positions. In fact, it is soon time to disband for shields and saved upkeep or to sacrifice remaining JTs in battle. Remember, upgraded Elites lose their elite status and become veteran, and the Elite JT will never attack again on better odds, possibly its only chance to get its last worker and GL.


So all in all, this is the best analysis for the use of JT

Analysis

I guess the C3B sent these two to isolate the JT on that Isthmus, not knowing the AC locations. Likely they guessed that the JT could attack them and win over SS Raptor, but lose in the Immortal Barclay in the counteroffiensive, or escape SE and be trapped on that peninsula by two immortals. Whatever we do, we will face some risk, yet, operational mobility should have priority. Consider GL and Worker bonuses, and their GA a major risk.