UK Prison Overcrowding

The UK conservative government privatised the state probation service which rather screwed such hopes up.
Does that mean... the organization(s) that ensure you are in compliance with the terms of your probation is privatized? I can see how that could go wrong. Best case there aren't any perverse incentives and the reliability of it is likely to fall due to cost cutting. Worst case, it could incentivize reporting less compliance than there really is and increase incarceration rates and costs.

Edit: Other worst case, it could incentivize rubber-stamping compliance without actually verifying it, at least partially removing the incentive to stay clean after release, and thus also leading to potential increases in crime.
 
Does that mean... the organization(s) that ensure you are in compliance with the terms of your probation is privatized?

Yes
I can see how that could go wrong. Best case there aren't any perverse incentives and the reliability of it is likely to fall due to cost cutting. Worst case, it could incentivize reporting less compliance than there really is and increase incarceration rates and costs.
Quite so.That occurred.
Edit: Other worst case, it could incentivize rubber-stamping compliance without actually verifying it, at least partially removing the incentive to stay clean after release, and thus also leading to potential increases in crime.
Quite so. That occurred.

The performance of the various companies varied for different
categories and in different regions. It is a long complex story.

Even the conservatives realised that privatisation (about 2015) had
gone wrong and they instigated a partial reversal (in about 2020).
 
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