What is going on in the UK?

How would voting intentions translate to seats in the current climate?

I am posting this more about the lunacy of FPTP rather than the actual results of this one poll.

Some highlights:

- A quarter of the population voting for the far right gives them power.
- The Lib Dem get to be the official opposition despite being the 5th most popular party
- The SNP get more seats than both the Conservatives and Greens with 3% of the vote UK wide

PartyYouGov PollElections Maps Projection (MPs)
Reform UK27%49.8% (324)
Labour17%11.4% (74)
Conservative17%5.8% (38)
Green16%6.5% (42)
Liberal Democrats15%13.5% (88)
SNP3%7% (46)

Spoiler As a map :
1762004482280.png

Source
 
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The Tories finishing behind the Greens despite a larger vote share is immensely funny, given how FPTP typically screws the Greens.
 
@ Samson

I do not regard Reform as far right.

Greens and Liberals seem to be competing to replace Labour.

A lot can happen in three years.
 
I do not regard Reform as far right.
I would be interested in your reasoning, and if you would class the National Rally (aka Front National) or Alternative for Germany as far right.

I had a bit of a google, and DW and Le Monde seem to agree with me. This gives some reasons:

While “far-right” is a contested term, most academics and experts generally agree that it includes certain key beliefs and themes, such as racist and xenophobic rhetoric, the undermining of democratic process, attacks on human rights and the principle that all human beings are equal, and a populist, conspiratorial belief in a sinister “elite”.

Reform UK fits all of the above.

The historians David Renton and Neil Davidson essentially divide the right of the political spectrum into conservatives, the non-fascist far-right, and fascism. In these definitions, Reform UK sits comfortably in the “non-fascist far-right” category.

Similarly, Mudde breaks down the term far-right further into the following:
  • The radical right which “accepts the essence of democracy, but opposes fundamental elements of liberal democracy”. This describes Nigel Farage and Reform UK, as the party rejects key elements of liberal democracy, most notably the concept that every human being has inherent dignity and universal rights.
  • The extreme far-right which “rejects the essence of democracy, that is, popular sovereignty and majority rule”.
While leader of UKIP and as an MEP, Farage worked closely with a range of far-right parties as part of the Europe of Freedom and Democracy group which included Lega Nord, the Danish People’s Party, Finns Party and the Slovak National Party.

In 2014, Farage was widely criticised for joining forces with the Sweden Democrats, a far-right party with Nazi roots. Farage is friendly with and openly admires far-right leaders like Donald Trump, Georgia Meloni, Marie Le Pen and Victor Orban.

Reform UK and its leader Farage fit comfortably within the definition of the far-right.

Key reasons include:
  • Undermining democracy: Farage has repeatedly questioned election results in Peterborough (2019), Rochdale (2024) and Oldham (2015), where he said that the electoral process was “dead” due to “ethnic changes in the way people are voting”.
  • Attacks on human rights: Farage has called for the UK to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, rejecting key principles of liberal democracy.
  • Racist and xenophobic rhetoric: Farage has a history of racism, xenophobia, and misogyny, with Reform UK’s current focus being on portraying asylum seekers and Muslims as threats to the nation.
  • Populism and elite conspiracy: Farage frames himself as a defender of “the people” against a sinister “elite,” fuelling distrust in politicians and institutions.
We must not shy away from calling Reform UK what they are – far-right.

Reform UK has repeatedly used racist and xenophobic rhetoric, attacking human rights and rejecting key principles of liberal democracy.
 
The onus is on those who claim that Reform are far right to justify that claim,
not for me to justify not believing that claim when presented to me as a fact.

But I will make just three points:

(1) The political nature of Farage's allies is irrelevant.
For instance Churchill allied with Stalin and the soviets, but Churchill was not a communist.

(2) Nigel Farage is just one man, and is not the same as the political party Reform UK.

(3) I do not believe that 49.8% of the population are far right.
 
The onus is on those who claim that Reform are far right to justify that claim,
not for me to justify not believing that claim when presented to me as a fact.

But I will make just three points:

(1) The political nature of Farage's allies is irrelevant.
For instance Churchill allied with Stalin and the soviets, but Churchill was not a communist.
It is certainly not absolute, but when he had a choice to make political allies with the whole political spectrum available in the European Parliament it is relevant that he chose to make allies with those who are widely considered far right.
(2) Nigel Farage is just one man, and is not the same as the political party Reform UK.
He has close to absolute power over it in a way no other single person has over a major political party. The ownership by Reform 2025 Limited means that between him and Ziauddin Yusuf control is highly centralised.
(3) I do not believe that 49.8% of the population are far right.
Neither do I, nor do I believe that 33% of Germans in 1933 were Nazis, but they voted for a Nazi and they gave the Nazis basically complete power. That is the problem.
 
For instance Churchill allied with Stalin and the soviets, but Churchill was not a communist.
A war time alliance of convenience is a rather odd comparison.
Nigel Farage is just one man, and is not the same as the political party Reform UK.
Before Samson mentioned Farage's level of control, I was going to say that it would be rather strange for a party to have a leader rather that doesn't reflect it's values.
(3) I do not believe that 49.8% of the population are far right.
People tactically vote for candidates they do not 100% agree with all the time.
 
@ Samson

I live in the present. And the present is not the past.

Historians' definitions of left and right are of questionable relevance today.

It seem to me that UK politicians are more divided into those trying to preserve the "status quo"
and those apparently trying to change the "status quo", than by the old definitions of left or right.

The Conservative and Labour parties are correctly seen as being for the status quo.

However the public mood is swinging away from that.

And the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Reform, and Jeremy Corbyn etc are trying to run with the changing mood.

I am extremely sceptical of how genuine the first three listed parties claiming to seek change actually are.

But what is clear is that the supporters of the status quo are worried and therefore trying to paint Reform as far right.

The underlying dog whistles they are using are that a vote for Reform is a vote for fascism and a vote for Farage is a vote for Hitler.
 
@ Samson

The opinion poll you cited explains why the Labour party is worried.

Sir Keir Starmer's "Island of strangers" speech, and talk about
changing the settlement rules demonstrates that he is worried.

As for "far right" and the labour conference, a quick search finds.


Now to my mind there is a clear distinction between the far
right as in Stephen Yaxley-Lennon; and the Reform party.
 
The onus is on those who claim that Reform are far right to justify that claim,
You said, and I quote: "I do not regard Reform as far right". That is your claim. That is your stated belief. It isn't contingent on anyone elses' claims.

Also, hi!
 
Is the Corbyn party gaining any ground, or is it dead in the water?
It seems to me that the Greens are taking all the attention on the left of Labour. They did not even get a named category in the latest yougov poll.
 
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