[RD] Ukraine War Speculation Thread

[EnglishEdward]

@ Verbose

Your discussion is interesting but it assumes that one or both sides
exercise intelligent leadership and that is IMO open to doubt.

Thing is politicians adopt stances and then issue instructions
in accordance with their stances rather than strategic realities.

 

[Farm Boy]

Excpet lots of people the other side of the Atlantic also seem to choke on their peanuts these days, when Macron says what most sorta kinda think on the matter re European politics...

It is sort of what the Americans are for, if you've decided to pay attention for 30 years of politics. The aging need to chew thier food more carefully.

Republican opposition is sort of weak. It'll get stronger as the election wears on, but only because for the most part there isn't much to fight Biden on. Thier big donors are the same interests.

 

[Verbose]

@ Verbose

Your discussion is interesting but it assumes that one or both sides
exercise intelligent leadership and that is IMO open to doubt.

Thing is politicians adopt stances and then issue instructions
in accordance with their stances rather than strategic realities.

Not entirely sure how it is a relevant counterpoint? The leadership that manages to be most "intelligent" probably wins in the end. But which one that turns out to be also remains to be seen. This is an emerging situation still. Everyone has to speculate until we can look at the actual returns of the actions chosen.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I don't think I am counter pointing you, agree reasonable to speculate on the
basis of intelligent leadership, but I am not optimistic enough to believe in it.

 

[saamohod]

(maybe @saamohod ?)

Idk really, maybe he's just tired and confused

 

[Birdjaguar]

Moderator Action: Split from the War News thread

 

[E.man]

Looking at the long view of history, we could be seeing the continued decline from the Russian Empire.

USSR inherited the empire, which was expanded after WW2 over eastern Europe.
Influence declined with Soviet collapse, and now Russian Federation is losing influence in Central Asia already.

Putin's move into Ukraine was meant to be a quick armed coup, but has shown their army and society to be corrupt and ineffective.

 

[FriendlyFire]

The change in domestic economy is thus far peanuts. Not sure about Europe, but major players there were welching on obligations for ages. One of Biden's Putin's achievements is getting Europeans to think about thier own defense, which was the orange man's stance, a subject of much ridicule and derision. Sometimes it's who says something rather than what gets said. Putin seems highly effective at shifting industries to deathmaking.

EU dose have a substantial arms industry, only the EU countries close to Russia were the ones to understand the danger and quickly started up the militarizing
While the main powers have acted very slowly, just only now starting on ramping up munitions productions for a long war, and new weapon system

Russian do have advantages as its authoritarian regime is quickly able to order its military industry to go into full production
plus its been able to draw on old stockpiles for a good while

I would say that Ukraine and Russia are rather evenly matched right now,