[RD] War in Ukraine: Other topics

I am not against those as possible parallels. It doesn't change the point that a huge standing army means you will go to war; it's economics, you can't sustain war industry after you created your great army if you don't use it. Russia did (various cases), US did (not to conquer bordering regions, but did, various cases) and Germany also will. That this war including Germany will be against Russia (like the previous two ww), is also obvious.

Funny how you seem to be blind to the fact that this reasoning also means that Russian army WILL be used further, no matter what we do.

Which leaves only two options. Allow the annexation and building of "Russkiy Mir" on the corpses of our countries, or build an army and resist.
 
Funny how you seem to be blind to the fact that this reasoning also means that Russian army WILL be used further, no matter what we do.

Which leaves only two options. Allow the annexation and building of "Russkiy Mir" on the corpses of our countries, or build an army and resist.
It will be used further, yes. But if you haven't noticed, Russia is bordering 1.5 continents so even if it had excellent relations with the Eu its army would find other fronts - as it did prior to 2014. Are you non-blind to that? :)
A German army that Merz announced, on the other hand, is sort of one-directional and yet still needs war to sustain its industry.
 
To be a war ally, you need to first be in the war. Imo only part of the Eu will. A consequence of allying with enemies is distancing, and war alliance if anything requires not just neutrality but solidarity.

It's too bad that the critical point - about the German army being unable to be like the US or Russian and get its gigs elsewhere, thus make a great war almost inevitable - was so quickly passed by. The logic in it surely is very clear.
 
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It will be used further, yes. But if you haven't noticed, Russia is bordering 1.5 continents so even if it had excellent relations with the Eu its army would find other fronts - as it did prior to 2014. Are you non-blind to that? :)

Why don't you check the actual reality of what Russia borders?
We have: China, Mongolia and North Korea: No-go there, those are allies that could together kick Russia all the way back to Arctic.
Asian post-Soviet countries. The relationships are somewhere between uneasy alliance and outright vassalage, kept in check by soft power. Any military engagement would have to be forced by radical political changes there and on a small scale, more like proxy war.
Caucasus. More turbulent, but similar status to Asian countries.
Ukraine. Current conflict.
Belarus. Vassal.
And what's left is eastern wing of EU. Against which Putin already made threats, denied their sovereignty and is even building new military bases along their borders. Plus, Baltic states are strategically of utmost importance for him and the idea of "new Russian Empire".

So, where will the army be used? You can take a guess. Realistically, there aren't many options there.

And I'm not even talking about the fact that this "appeasement" approach by throwing small countries on aggressor is both utterly immoral and unviable. History has shown that. Russian political system, like any dictatorship, derives stability from the display of power. If you acquiesce to its demands, it'll only come back for more, because you're weak and only making yourself weaker. If you're weak, you're target for another display of power.

History, however, shows a third option. Cold war, arms race. As long as the potential aggressor is forced into excessive military spending in order to keep up with the neighbor, it'll slow down progress, development, and eventually collapse and change of regime.
EU and US are more than capable of forcing this, over a long term...but that requires, guess what, building army that'll have sufficient deterrent effect.
 
Why don't you check the actual reality of what Russia borders?
We have: China, Mongolia and North Korea: No-go there, those are allies that could together kick Russia all the way back to Arctic.
Asian post-Soviet countries. The relationships are somewhere between uneasy alliance and outright vassalage, kept in check by soft power. Any military engagement would have to be forced by radical political changes there and on a small scale, more like proxy war.
Caucasus. More turbulent, but similar status to Asian countries.
Ukraine. Current conflict.
Belarus. Vassal.
And what's left is eastern wing of EU. Against which Putin already made threats, denied their sovereignty and is even building new military bases along their borders. Plus, Baltic states are strategically of utmost importance for him and the idea of "new Russian Empire".

So, where will the army be used? You can take a guess. Realistically, there aren't many options there.

And I'm not even talking about the fact that this "appeasement" approach by throwing small countries on aggressor is both utterly immoral and unviable. History has shown that. Russian political system, like any dictatorship, derives stability from the display of power. If you acquiesce to its demands, it'll only come back for more, because you're weak and only making yourself weaker. If you're weak, you're target for another display of power.

History, however, shows a third option. Cold war, arms race. As long as the potential aggressor is forced into excessive military spending in order to keep up with the neighbor, it'll slow down progress, development, and eventually collapse and change of regime.
EU and US are more than capable of forcing this, over a long term...but that requires, guess what, building army that'll have sufficient deterrent effect.
I am sorry Sarin, but you yourself mentioned a host of different places - compare to the exactly one where a German army can march to war - and for dubious reasons hand-waved them. It's as if you think that history has ended in the regions Russia had wars and other operations (counter-insurrection or intervention). Based on...nothing? Great powers always can manufacture wars against such countries, and Russia has more than a continent to do that.
But even if we accept your summary (which would be unreasonable) surely you do agree that Germany, even if it wanted to, can't direct its army other than against Russia?
 
I am sorry Sarin, but you yourself mentioned a host of different places - compare to the one where a German army can march to war - and for dubious reasons hand-waved them. It's as if you think that history has ended in the regions Russia had wars and other operations (counter-insurrection or intervention). Based on...nothing?
But even if we accept all that (which would be unreasonable) surely you do agree that German, even if it wanted to, can't direct its army other than against Russia?

Ah, another strawman from you. Totally misrepresenting what I wrote, and ignoring half of it. Russia won't attack most of the countries along its borders for similar reasons why Germany won't attack, say, UK. Just because you call it dubious reasons and ignore what I wrote doesn't make your argument correct.

Your reasoning is fallacious from the beginning. Having a big army does not, inherently, mean you'll use it. Otherwise we wouldn't be here because Europe and Russia would have been turned to rubble during 50's and 60's.
Building a large army means new Cold War. Not building it means a very hot one, for the reasons I mentioned in that whole paragraph you ignored.
 
Having a big army is one thing, having a big army built and sustained by your industry is another, and having a big army built and sustained by your industry which is there to pivot from a collapse of the non-war industry is a third situation. Russia can always artificially cause depletion (and demand for the industry) by wars against much smaller powers. Germany can only go to war against Russia with its announced "biggest conventional army in Europe".
I get that you wish to never see what this is leading to - or focus on a fairytale ending where there is a cold war as if Eu is as powerful as the US militarily.
It's not like I expected to prevent war by posting on CFC. At best a point will stick out due to being logical.
 
Having a big army is one thing, having a big army built and sustained by your industry is another, and having a big army built and sustained by your industry which is there to pivot from a collapse of the non-war industry is a third situation. Russia can always artificially cause depletion (and demand for the industry) by wars against much smaller powers. Germany can only go to war against Russia with its announced "biggest conventional army in Europe".
I get that you wish to never see what this is leading to - or focus on a fairytale ending where there is a cold war as if Eu is as powerful as the US militarily.
It's not like I expected to prevent war by posting on CFC. At best a point will stick out due to being logical.

Fallacious reasoning that relies on the thought that once Germany builds an army, the expenditures involved in actually using it will be what will keep its economy afloat. That's a fallacy. Russia is in that state, yes, because its economy is in fact significantly smaller.than EU. Germany can, in fact, maintain a peace economy while devoting enough resources for military that'll, along with rest of EU, serve as sufficient deterrent against Russia.

And you are ignoring the main thing, and that is political reasons. Germany, barring a political revolution that would pit it against the rest of EU, can't go into offensive against Russia. That's the nature of democracy and EU alliance, as tenative as it is. Russia, on the other hand, as a dictatorship, has to use its army when the opportunity arises, due to factors I mentioned earlier and you ignored.
 
Having a big army to deter an even bigger army amounts to actively using said big army – and does not lead to any other form of escalation. Which is what the last Cold War showed us.

However, if one blinds oneself to where the bigger army actually is, who has it, and how it is being used, one can end up in all kinds of weird and contrived scenarios I suppose.
 
strangely the guy claims to have the bigger army


possibly one of those who are telling Trump that he is a coward and the victory is just around the corner .
 
strangely the guy claims to have the bigger army


possibly one of those who are telling Trump that he is a coward and the victory is just around the corner .
That's in bad faith and you know it.
 
essential thing here being creating consent and whatnot . To keep the fight on , despite the Ukranians are highly stressed and so on , as the Russians find their balance and gear into their traditional way of war . The ceasefire that would only be accepted would be one of where the Western armies can strut around as if they , yeah only they could have stopped the Red Army onslaught and keep the pot boiling for some second round . The Poles will not occupy Kaliningrad , the Russian Federation will not mount a rescue operation ? Oh , impossible , the Russians are to invade Civilization because that's what they do is good faith , no doubt . Are you in any form doubting the Ukranian head of State when he says he is facing some 600 000 Russians out of some 1,5 millions ? Are you denying NAFO and NATO told us the outnumbered Ukranians were beating unnumbered Russian hordes with much better technique at a time the war started something like 800 000 or a million Ukranians versus 200 000 or whatever and the Ukranians are not even allowed to rotate their troops in contact , in case 20 km deep Russian quadcopter operations allow that ? Is everything bad faith ? Or is it just those who don't fit with the task ? Unless there will be people to say Russian trolls ... do ... stuff ?
 
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One timeless consequence of having a huge standing army is that you are going to use it - whether the way USA does, with 'world-police' actions, or in the more German way.
Strongest? May I have the exact translation of the word(s)?

"Largest" can be achieved by conscription. "Strongest" needs real combat experience, right?
 
Strongest? May I have the exact translation of the word(s)?

"Largest" can be achieved by conscription. "Strongest" needs real combat experience, right?
Or doctrine, tech, motivation etc. Combat experience helps, but also is what tells you how well all the other things worked when you put it all together.
 

Russia is using its army to try and take more of Ukraine. It's using its passports to control the population​

Putin signed decree forcing Ukrainians to legalize their status in occupied territories

For more than three years, every time 67-year-old Iryna and her husband stepped beyond their front door, the Ukrainian couple feared for their lives.

They could be caught up in shelling or in a drone strike — or end up being interrogated by security agents at gunpoint as they tried to cross a checkpoint in the southern part of Kherson region, an area still under Russian control.

The couple, who had been living under occupation since the early days of Russia's invasion, initially refused to get a Russian passport even as Moscow made it increasingly difficult to survive without them.

"Everything was becoming harder and harder," said Iryna during an interview with CBC News last month. "You felt like you were in a cage."

Iryna, who CBC News agreed to identify only by her first name due to her concerns about retribution from Russia, said she and her husband felt they had no choice but to get Russian passports last year. That was when the local stores closed and it became impossible to get groceries without going through a Russian checkpoint.

Like many other Ukrainians, she and her husband accepted Russian citizenship because they feared what would happen if they didn't.

Mass distribution of passports

It is part of what human rights experts see as a widespread campaign of coercion that's designed to extend Moscow's influence over the occupied territories, areas it demands Ukraine relinquish as part of any potential peace deal.

At the same time, the Kremlin has refused to implement a 30-day ceasefire, and Russian forces have recently launched a new offensive to try and take more Ukrainian land.

According to Moscow, 3.5 million residents living in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson have received passports.

While Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the country had "virtually completed" the mass issuance of passports in these areas, he signed a presidential decree in March to target the few Ukrainians still holding out.

Ukrainians who live in Russia, or the areas it purports to control, have to legalize their status by Sept. 10 — or leave their homes.

Though these Ukrainian regions aren't fully controlled by Russia, Moscow attempted to justify its claim to them by staging "sham" referendums in September 2022 that were condemned by world leaders.

Its passport policy is an extension of that strategy, considered an attempt to weaken Ukrainian sovereignty and a clear sign that Moscow has no intention of giving up the territory it now occupies.

Russia has previously used its fast-track passport scheme as a geopolitical tool in other areas, including in the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia and in Moldova's separatist Transdniestria region.

After Russia illegally annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014, it distributed Russian passports in a widespread campaign.

Life under occupation

At the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, Iryna and her husband were living in a cottage on an island in the Dnipro River Delta in the Kherson region.

The area was seized by Russia during the first week of the war.

When Ukrainian forces retook part of Kherson, including Kherson City in November 2022, Iryna said Russia's soldiers ordered her and other residents to evacuate further south.

She and her husband ended up living in someone else's house in the village of Stara Zbur'ivka, located along the south side of the Dnipro river.

They tried to avoid interacting with the Russian soldiers, Iryna told CBC News, but having to cross a Russian checkpoint each time they needed groceries or supplies meant they would be grilled by those manning it.

"They kept asking 'Why are you not taking a passport, are you waiting for the Ukrainian military to return?'" said Iryna.

On one occasion, she said, a soldier pointed a gun at her husband's head while questioning him.

"It was no longer possible without them," she said of getting a Russian passport. "It was just dangerous."

When Iryna and her husband decided to leave Kherson in March, they used their Russian passports as they travelled into Crimea and then Russia. At that point, she said, a local underground network of volunteers helped them get back to Ukraine by going through Belarus.

Now living in Dnipro, the couple said they have no use for the passports Russia imposed on them.

Passport policy

Even before Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Moscow was trying to entice Ukrainians with citizenship.

Putin signed a decree speeding up the process for those living in the self-proclaimed regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which were then controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

By July 2022, the Kremlin announced that all Ukrainian citizens were eligible to receive passports under the fast-track scheme.

According to Human Rights Watch, the passports were distributed through an illegal pressure campaign, in which Russian authorities threatened to detain Ukrainian citizens or confiscate property if they didn't accept a passport.

Russia has made it increasingly impossible to live without the document in the territory it occupies, requiring it to access state services, including pension payments, education and health care.

During a six-month period in 2023, the international organization Physicians for Human Rights documented at least 15 cases of people being denied medical care, because they lived in the occupied territories and didn't have a Russian passport.

The group said some hospitals even set up a desk so desperate patients could fill out the necessary paperwork right there.

Advising Ukrainian citizens

Ivan, a co-ordinator with the Yellow Ribbon resistance campaign that's active in the occupied territories, told CBC News that through the first few years of the Russian invasion, he and other volunteers advised residents about how to avoid accepting a Russian passport.

CBC News agreed not to identify him by his last name, given his work in the occupied territories and the possibility of retribution by Russian authorities.

In 2023, the resistance group ran an information campaign about steps Ukrainian citizens could take to prevent their flats or other real estate from being confiscated if they didn't have Russian citizenship.

But he said as Russia ramped up restrictions, the messaging changed.

"We are recommending that people take a Russian passport because you basically need it if you want to survive," he said during a Zoom interview in April. "You could be arrested or detained ... just because you don't have it."

While he and others try to reassure residents that getting a passport is "no big deal" and they can later relinquish their Russian citizenship, he acknowledges that it could mean that men who are new citizens could be drafted into the country's military.

Ivan, who graduated from university in information technology in 2021, was living in Kherson City when it was invaded by Russia. At the time, he had lost his Ukrainian passport, so he ended up being issued a Russian legal document.

After the liberation of Kherson City, Ivan went to the northern part of the country, before later taking a route through Russia to enter the Russian-occupied part of the Ukrainian territory of Zaporizhzhia.

He told CBC News he had relatives living in the area that he needed to bring passports to, and he helped a few local activists there stage non-violent resistance campaigns by tying yellow ribbons to trees and distributing information pamphlets.

But he acknowledges he only knows of a few people in the occupied areas who haven't yet taken a Russian passport.

"Even they know that they will have to accept a passport if the occupation continues."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russian-passports-ukraine-1.7547901
 
A compatriot of mine paid the ultimate price for being unable of just witnessing, from afar, the horrors going on in Ukraine. RIP.
(google translate)

Jerónimo Guerreiro, the young Portuguese who always dreamed of being a soldier, served in the firefighters and died in combat in Ukraine​


“I just want my son back. I want to ask Ukraine to help rescue my son’s body, because I have to see and hug my son,” says Cristina Jesus, mother of Jerónimo Guerreiro, the Portuguese soldier who died this Thursday in combat in the war in Ukraine, in the Kupiansk region, in an area controlled by the Russians.

Through tears, Cristina Jesus tells Observador that Jerónimo, just 23 years old, was sent on a mission in that region on Thursday and that he was the target of “an ambush by the Russians”.

The young Portuguese man was part of the International Legion of Ukraine, a group made up of foreign soldiers who fight under the aegis of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the war effort against Russia. “I will do everything I can to rescue the body. If I could, I would go there personally to collect my son’s body, but I can’t because he was on the front line ,” he says.

Jerônimo Guerreiro took a parachutist course and then became a firefighter, until he had the opportunity to fight in the war in Ukraine against Russian forces, where he finally fulfilled his military calling.

From the volunteer firefighters of Sacavém to the front line of the war​


It was at the beginning of 2024 that Jerônimo headed to Ukraine to fight. Until then, he was one of the members of the Sacavém volunteer firefighters' corporation, where he had been since 2023, when he received the proposal to do what he always wanted to be: a soldier.

“The memory that remains is that of a man of causes and super-disciplined . He had been in the paratroopers and always had a very straight posture”, recalls the commander of the Sacavém fire brigade. Also trained in the Army, Commander Armando Batista describes the “military closeness” he had with Jerónimo Guerreiro, a “volunteering” young man who was appointed as his leader and who was “a trustworthy man” in command.
Despite the distance and the difficulties of communication on the front line, Jerônimo's former commander said that the young man sought to maintain contact with him and other former colleagues in the corporation. “We spoke via WhatsApp and about a month ago he sent me a message saying that things were complicated, but that he felt fine. I told him to go away, I told him ‘you’ve done what you had to do’… But he said he was serious,” he stressed.

In a corporation where graduations are still held and military principles are observed in everyday life, Armando Batista says that Jerônimo found what he wanted after leaving the paratroopers.

“He came here because he was very disciplined. He came to Sacavém in search of what he had in the troops”, he describes, remembering his dedication to the service, with a Christmas and New Year's Eve in 2023 with “his firefighter family”.

Former instructor remembers “the kid” who passed through his hands and who was happy in the war​


Fernando Santos, 40 years old, has been a firefighter for 23 years and has been working in the Sacavém fire department since 2022. It was he who was responsible for training Jerónimo Guerreiro when he joined the fire department, a mission that proved to be “easy”, as the young man “had ambition to comply” and responded to the orders and instructions given.

“I miss him. I used to talk to them a lot… He was a kid who passed through my hands, and then, from one moment to the next, goodbye. It’s a shock for everyone,” he admits.

Describing Jerónimo as a person who is “very militaristic, very straightforward and always ready to help”, Fernando Santos admits that he was not completely surprised when the former paratrooper told him that he was going to war in Ukraine and that he did not even try to dissuade him, given his profile.
“I was the one who instructed him when he said he wanted to go to war. He asked for help to understand how to make tourniquets and other things. He always wanted to know more and learn… I tried to show him the risks he was going to take. I didn’t discourage him, but I warned him about the dangers, ” he notes, adding: “He never showed any intention of going back. I also didn’t tell him to go back, because he liked fighting. He was happy with what he was doing supporting Ukraine. He really had a military vocation.”

Although he remembers Jerónimo as a reserved person, Fernando Santos mentions that he kept in touch with his former student during the months he was fighting on Ukrainian soil. The last message, according to the former instructor, was exchanged on May 13th. “I talked to him and we talked about drones, he asked for help on how to maneuver them,” he says.

“He told me that it was complicated. He only sent single-view photos because he couldn’t share too much information .”

The information about Jerônimo Guerreiro's death reached him through social media. He then passed the message on to the corporation commander. Now, there remains concern about the return of the Portuguese soldier's remains. “Let’s see if it’s not an impossible mission,” he acknowledges.

A son “fallen in the bush” controlled by the Russians​


Kupiansk marked the last chapter in the story of Jerônimo Guerreiro in the war in Ukraine. The area belongs to the Kharkiv oblast, but is surrounded by Russian forces, which, according to the latest information on the conflict, are controlling that part of Ukrainian territory. For the soldier's mother, not knowing if she can recover her only son's body is the worst doubt.

“Right now I just want aid to focus on finding my son, because he died in the war fighting to help the Ukrainians. He is lying in the forest controlled by the Russians. It will be very difficult to recover his body. I have been told that it could take weeks or months… There are bodies there that have been there for two or three months that have not yet been recovered,” he says.
Contact with Jerônimo on the war front was difficult and rare, because he also did not talk much about his professional life and information about the evolution of the war. When her son returned to Portugal at the end of last year, Cristina Jesus, 48, tried to convince him to stay for good and leave the conflict in Ukraine, but ended up returning in January of this year and never returning again.

“I always told him, ‘Jerônimo, don’t go, don’t go.’ I told him I would find work here, but he came back. She died honoring his profession and what she loved to do. A mother telling her son not to go… they also follow their path,” she says.

And Jerônimo Guerreiro’s path has always been in this direction. He grew up in the Lisbon region, started out parachuting in the commandos and his mother emphasizes that “he always wanted that life and that his “ dream was to join the military ”. A dream that truly came true a little over a year ago, when he left for Ukraine. “He is a hero and that is how he will always be remembered. A good man and a good son,” he confesses.

Government admits difficulties in recovering the body​


The Secretary of State for Communities, José Cesário, confirmed this Sunday the death of Jerónimo Guerreiro unofficially and acknowledged that the Government will try to help the family recover the body of the Portuguese soldier, who had been fighting on Ukrainian soil since February 2024.
“I have received information that a Portuguese citizen died fighting in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. He belonged to the International Legion and was killed in Kupiansk, an area controlled by the Russians,” he told Observador, not forgetting that, due to this geographical and military circumstance, “ the recovery of the body is currently very difficult .”

According to the governor, the Portuguese embassy in Kiev is making contacts and efforts to ensure the recovery of the body.

Speaking to Lusa, José Cesário revealed that he had no information about any more Portuguese citizens fighting in Ukraine. “We know that there are cases there, but we don’t have full confirmation because these are people who are there and then stop being there and they don’t inform us. They don’t even need to inform us, because they are there in a purely personal capacity,” he said.
 
34 is the licence plate number of Istanbul , with each province having its own , issued by the Police when buy a new car . 34% is the ratio of semi/fully strategic bombers hit but not destroyed , as the distinction is kinda sorta important because Trump doesn't want to push his luck with the Russian rhetoric that stresses nuclear balance thing so much . Now we also have evidence the Westerners are suffering too . Putin should accept Trump's offer of re-arming Ukraine for a second round , stopping his summer offensive thing , too . Am not sure this is the correct reading the Western leaders should get , but yeah celebrate the victory , it will be remembered for quite a while .
 
somewhere else on the forum where Russian trolls are heavily mentioned and some usual suspects are mentioned because trolls and bots are operated only by Russia , you know , because , the talk goes on about the need for observation and identification of nuclear vectors . Sea Harriers in the UK were declared as nuclear delivery systems and they had to carry the relevant pylons and stuff at all times ; was odd when ı read about that decades ago . But , if one is going to accuse others of parroting talking points of one side , one should be be prepared and have the idea is that A-50 is the AWACS thing with the saucer on top , while the one seen in the linked video is like the Bear incidentally directly linked to the B-29 of WW 2 fame . Like change the link please or something .
 
Alex Jones getting lectured by Musk's Grok. A sight to behold.

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