We might actually pull through here--even given our unlucky roll. I played 14 turns and had some good events.
I finish construction 200 BC and Shaka pops up immediately.
I obviously gave it to him. I'm not sure whether this was lucky or not for us but in my experience the AI has rarely decided to go to war if it asks for assistance. I don't think this is a 100% thing though--just a feeling I've been having, I should look into it for documentation. We were just barely at pleased though (mathematics gave only +2 boost) so this adds another 3 (+2 for fair deals and +1 for helping him).
The great news--Shaka has founded a religion
Now if only confucianism could spread to our cities we might actually get Shaka up to friendly. This would be truly huge as we'd be 100% safe from war and be able to trade for techs too.
A look at the tech screen shows that Shaka
does not have monarchy yet. Seeing as we only have 1 calendar resource and are running out of things to build (units next) I go for monarchy first. HR is much more important for us and if we can get Shaka to friendly we'll be able to trade for the other techs anyway making trading for monarchy less important.
[Unfortunately Shaka finished teching monarchy 2 turns before we have it meaning there's a chance we might've been able to trade for it. There was no way of knowing that though, and if he goes for calendar next we wouldn't have it in time for trading anyway.]
A barbarian galley pops up 75 BC. Fortunately I'm about to chop a forest so I do get a galley out in time to defend. I really wish there was a more effective counter to this though--this time we got lucky and defeated the galley, but there's a pretty big chance of losing the battle (even when defending) which means losing 80 hammers or more and the great tile temporarily. I feel implementing this was a mistake in the 3.17 patch--the spawn rate is too high compared to what you can do to counter it. When it comes to normal land barbarians you have counter units but that's not the case here until MC which comes too late and is too expensive to get for barb protection only.
I have a work boat scouting the south of Shaka's island for (war) galleys and a galley scouting the north for the same reason (you can see his SoD idling there).
Our peace treaty with Shaka ended this turn so there's another thing to discuss;
- We have him at pleased and he has gold in the bank meaning that we can try begging for something putting off any attack another 10 turns.
good = more time to get him to friendly assuming he hasn't decided to attack us yet.
bad = we can't get 10 turns to build a force of units if he does decide to attack us.
- not ask for gold and save it for later.
good = if he's already in WHEOOH we can get 10 turns to build up our defense by asking for a gift just before he crosses our borders.
bad = he might enter WHEOOH soon before we have a chance of getting him to friendly (which isn't that easy--we'll need more than immediate conversion to confucianism).
Calakmul is currently working the fur, but that's only for 2 turns so that Mayapan can grow. Re-assign the farm to Calakmul afterwards--there should be enough cottages to go around by then. Camp the other fur as well--if we have 2 of a resource Shaka might ask for it resulting in boosted diplomacy (the forested fur is also a great tile to work).
We'll have a very high happy and health cap right now so grow the cities as much as possible by working the tiles with a lot of food (even if that means coast imo).