MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
It's to early to tell.
The surge worked far better than I thought it would, but a big part of its success is down to bribes given to people to stop attacking the US military, when those bribes stop coming in and the US withdraws, I think we'll be right back to 2006 again, but thats not certain. The thing about it is, the US will go home eventually, Iran will always be next door.
RRW, afaik, those type payments have already stopped. The budget under the new admin just isnt there to support it anymore and the well has run dry. One of my friends over there right now is doing that type of work, being a liaison officer to some local government types. He said they still talk to them in regards to the situation, but since the cash has dried up they arent nearly as happy to see them coming as they used to be. Heh. But so far it hasnt resulted in increased violence or anything so thats a positive sign so far.
I agree with you that its probably too early to tell.