WAR: Israel Destroys Palestinian Foreign Ministry

[Symphony D.]

http://news.yahoo.com/fc/world/mideast_conflict

Looks like the leader of Hezbollah has just issued an "open war" with Israel.

Yeah, he also just demonstrated he's an idiot.

"You wanted an open war, you will have an open war," Nasrallah said. "You don't know who you are fighting today. You are fighting the children of Mohammed, ali Hassan and Hussein. You chose the war to fight against people who believe in their pride."

Yes. Hezbollah totally didn't want open war... when they kidnapped Israeli soldiers after seeing how Israel had reacted to similar in Gaza, tried to fly them to Iran for ransom, and then started shooting dozens of rockets into Israel. That's just how they say "Hi" in southern Lebannon. Israel just totally misinterpreted. Can't we all just be friends?

As for the Palestinian government... Hamas was the government. Hamas is a well-recognized terrorist group. Hamas's Foreign Ministry got blown up. Oh well. Apparently Israel takes the phrase "No negotiation with terrorists" quite seriously. Given Hamas carried out these attacks - by invading Israeli territory willingly - that was effectively an act of war. Israel already rounded up the senior leadership anyway, so oh well. Maybe they should've thought about it before letting some of their nutcase followers destroy the peace yet again.

 

[Sidhe]

Yeah, he also just demonstrated he's an idiot.


Yes. Hezbollah totally didn't want open war... when they kidnapped Israeli soldiers after seeing how Israel had reacted to similar in Gaza, tried to fly them to Iran for ransom, and then started shooting dozens of rockets into Israel. That's just how they say "Hi" in southern Lebannon. Israel just totally misinterpreted. Can't we all just be friends?

As for the Palestinian government... Hamas was the government. Hamas is a well-recognized terrorist group. Hamas's Foreign Ministry got blown up. Oh well. Apparently Israel takes the phrase "No negotiation with terrorists" quite seriously. Given Hamas carried out these attacks - by invading Israeli territory willingly - that was effectively an act of war. Israel already rounded up the senior leadership anyway, so oh well. Maybe they should've thought about it before letting some of their nutcase followers destroy the peace yet again.

Another knee jerk reaction, I never tire of these, Oh good lord, we are not in Kansas any more Toto.

 

[Little Raven]

What would change even if Iran is brought in?

Apologies, friend. Missed this post.

If Iran gets dragged in, then things really will change, because there's simply no way to bring Iran into this conflict without putting the global economy on the line. Oil is at almost $80 a barrel, and Iran is the world's forth largest producer. A lot of very powerful countries with some very vested interests are going to get very uncomfortable if bad things start happening in the Strait of Hormuz. How exactly that would shake out would depend on the particulars of the scenario, but it would almost certainly break the status quo, for better or worse. (very likely worse)

The world is changing.

 

[Symphony D.]

Another knee jerk reaction, I never tire of these, Oh good lord, we are not in Kansas any more Toto.

So, tell me, what is the sensible thing to do here? Allow yourself to be ceaselessly bombarded? Or how about give the terrorists what they want?

We'll give you 1500 prisoners for one Israeli soldier. Sure. Then guess what? All Hamas and Hezbollah have to do is kidnap a few more soldiers, and they get all their jailed friends back, ready to resume further attacks against Israel with embittered "heros" freed from captivity. These are not rational entities which can be negotiated with. They are organizations whose explicit purpose for existance is the destruction of Israel. Negotiations with them only demonstrate weakness on the part of the Israeli state; weakness which will be exploited, again and again. So, Israel can:

1.) Do nothing, let its citizens and soldiers die, be kidnapped, killed, held for ransom, et cetera.
2.) Give into demands, weakening its own position, and setting itself up for future attacks, in which case it will have to yield more and more.
3.) Retaliate against what constitute acts of war.

Now, generally, part of being an elected official in government is doing what's best for the people. When presented with the above options, tell me, what exactly makes the third option, which Israel has picked, a knee-jerk reaction, or poorly made? It is the only sensible recourse from both a logical and political viewpoint.

When a bully beats you up every day for your lunch money, you don't do nothing. He'll keep coming. You don't just give him the money, or he'll keep extorting you. You beat him so badly he'll never try it again.

Israel voluntarily withdrew from both Gaza and Lebanon. Hell, the Israeli-Lebanon border was settled by UN Resolutions. Entities within Lebanon (Hezbollah) not only breached this border, but attacked, killed, and captured Israeli military personnel. The Lebanese government is either incapable or unwilling to deal with these entities in a satisfactory measure to enable Israeli security, and it is therefore Israel's right to defend itself. Same deal with Gaza, except in that case, the entity which perpretated the attack (Hamas) is the government. There is no clearer definition of "act of war" than that.

Quite frankly, Israel has shown enormous restraint. It could be launching full ground invasions of both Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank right now, but isn't. I can't (and won't) support every little tactical choice they've made but there is nothing at all irrational, foolish or hasty with the strategic doctrine they have chosen to employ against enemies whose stated purpose is their destruction. The Hezbollah leader saying Israel has brought about Hezbollah's retaliation is nothing but a pathetic cover for the fact Hezbollah has started this latest round of attacks. Hence, the Hezbollah leader is dumb, and a very poor politician to boot.

 

[betazed]

Apologies, friend. Missed this post.

If Iran gets dragged in, then things really will change, because there's simply no way to bring Iran into this conflict without putting the global economy on the line. Oil is at almost $80 a barrel, and Iran is the world's forth largest producer. A lot of very powerful countries with some very vested interests are going to get very uncomfortable if bad things start happening in the Strait of Hormuz. How exactly that would shake out would depend on the particulars of the scenario, but it would almost certainly break the status quo, for better or worse. (very likely worse)

The world is changing.

LR, but just an upward trend (or even a spike) in the oil price does not change much specifically because the trend and the spike is inevitable and would have happened anyway. If not today then tomorrow. So bringing the spike closer to today does not change things much.

Frankly, is anything happenning that is completely unexpected?

btw, that is a nice site. Goes into my bookmarks. Thx for the link.

 

[Leonel]

Yes. Hezbollah totally didn't want open war... when they kidnapped Israeli soldiers after seeing how Israel had reacted to similar in Gaza, tried to fly them to Iran for ransom, and then started shooting dozens of rockets into Israel. That's just how they say "Hi" in southern Lebannon. Israel just totally misinterpreted. Can't we all just be friends?

Don't forget that Israel withdrew from Gaza and the West Bank (I think even gave the lands back to the Palestinians if I'm not mistaken) and the Israeli's still got rockets fired at them.

 

[Azadre]

Don't forget that Israel withdrew from Gaza and the West Bank (I think even gave the lands back to the Palestinians if I'm not mistaken) and the Israeli's still got rockets fired at them.

Have you compared them to the rockets used by Israel? They suck, suck bad.

For reference... Hamas' rockets' maximum payload

(Source Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qassam_rocket)

Israel's rockets' maximum? payload

(Source http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/missile/jericho-2.htm)

So your *****ing about a dumbells worth of weight and retaliating with a truck's worth of explosives.

Do I sense hypocracy?

 

[Oruc]

Have you compared them to the rockets used by Israel? They suck, suck bad.

Then shouldnt they realise its a good idea not to antagonise them?

 

[Azadre]

Then shouldnt they realise its a good idea not to antagonise them?

Because the Palestinians are sick of being trodden on?

 

[Oruc]

Because the Palestinians are sick of being trodden on?

Shooting rockets at Israel and kidnapping soldiers after it pulled out of Gaza will stop this? Israel will merely see it as a consequence of a perceived weakness on their part.

 

[Leonel]

Have you compared them to the rockets used by Israel? They suck, suck bad.

For reference... Hamas' rockets' maximum payload

(Source Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qassam_rocket)

Israel's rockets' maximum? payload

(Source http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/missile/jericho-2.htm)

So your *****ing about a dumbells worth of weight and retaliating with a truck's worth of explosives.

Do I sense hypocracy?

So the Israeli's should retaliate with the same amount of payload what?

A rocket of a decent payload can still kill and if I'm not mistaken, Hamas is lobbing rockets into residential neighborhoods not for a fireworks display. And I'm not excusing Israel's tactics either as even though they target Hamas targets, civilians do get hurt and killed in the process. Are there Israeli military assets in those residential neighborhoods? Should the Israeli's not retaliate?

 

[amadeus]

Do I sense hypocracy?

Waa! Israel isn't playing nice!

I'd also like to ask you the last time they even fired a Jericho II missile. Test launches don't count.

 

[Norlamand]

Because the Palestinians are sick of being trodden on?

If you don't like getting your @$$ kicked, don't pick fights with people that can and will kick it. Silly Palestinians, bringing rocks to a gun fight.

 

[Azadre]

If you don't like getting your @$$ kicked, don't pick fights with people that can and will kick it. Silly Palestinians, bringing rocks to a gun fight.

I think Israel will ultimately lose from this. Hamas, Hizbollah, they have nothing to lose. Israel will lose economic support from the west. Israel fails economically, they can't keep their warmachine running and they are forced to come to terms.

 

[Bungholio]

wow. most moderator actions I've ever seen in a single forum.

 

[Norlamand]

I predict the situation will result in further degradation and humiliation for the Palestinians. They just don't seem able to learn from their mistakes. Israel may suffer some in the short term, but they will come out on top in the end. Israel isn't going away and the Palestinians would do well to learn that and come to a peaceful solution so that they can begin to develope something approximating a normal society.

 

[Bungholio]

wow. this is the most moderator warning i've ever seen.

 

[Azash]

For the discerning gentleman, I bring CBS

And what happened? I would have expected rational discussion on an event that may affect the history of the Middle-East quite drastically. A flamefestival of this proportion this early must be a record. (Read page one only.)

 

[Little Raven]

Israel will lose economic support from the west.

Zuh?

Israel only gets meaningful support from one nation in the West, and that nation will continue to back Israel with few conditions for the foreseeable future. The EU could, I suppose, employ it's economic clout, but that too seems remote at this point.

 

[Little Raven]

LR, but just an upward trend (or even a spike) in the oil price does not change much specifically because the trend and the spike is inevitable and would have happened anyway. If not today then tomorrow. So bringing the spike closer to today does not change things much.

Nasrudin was caught in the act and sentenced to die. Hauled up before the king, he was asked by the Royal Presence: "Is there any reason at all why I shouldn't have your head off right now?" To which he replied: "Oh, King, live forever! Know that I, the mullah Nasrudin, am the greatest teacher in your kingdom, and it would surely be a waste to kill such a great teacher. So skilled am I that I could even teach your favorite horse to sing, given a year to work on it." The king was amused, and said: "Very well then, you move into the stable immediately, and if the horse isn't singing a year from now, we'll think of something interesting to do with you."

As he was returning to his cell to pick up his spare rags, his cellmate remonstrated with him: "Now that was really stupid. You know you can't teach that horse to sing, no matter how long you try." Nasrudin's response: "Not at all. I have a year now that I didn't have before. And a lot of things can happen in a year. The king might die. The horse might die. I might die.

"And, who knows? Maybe the horse will sing."

Time always matters, even when the outcome is certain.

Frankly, is anything happenning that is completely unexpected?

Quite a bit. God knows I've become a fatalistic bastard of late, but let's try to keep some perspective here.

For instance, I would not have expected Hezbullah to have the capacity to seriously damage an IDF warship, and yet they do. I would not have expected Egypt and Saudi Arabia to lean so hard on Hamas, and yet they are. (for all the good it is doing)

But probably most unexpected is Israel’s reaction. And I don't mean the bombing or the civilian casualties, I mean the plan, or lack thereof, behind them. Israel is often brutal, but generally calculating. She prides herself on her formidable intelligence and razor sharp ops. The image she projects and works so hard to maintain is one of a shrewd but restrained power, and even as her helicopter gunships rain death from the sky, there is always the unspoken assumption that she has 10 tricks up her sleeve that she hasn’t even hinted at. To the outside observer, Israel is always one step ahead of the game.

That is not what we’re seeing now. Israel appears to be several steps behind the game, and is lashing out in a desperate attempt to regain the initiative. It’s clear that the giant has stepped on a thorn it did not anticipate, and while it’s crushing plenty of ants with it’s thrashing, it no longer seems to know exactly where to swat. Unilateral disengagement has failed, as so many on the left predicted it would. The PA is dead, and the only options for the territories appear to be Hamas, anarchy, or reoccupation. None of these are palatable to Israel, and now Hezbullah has upped the ante. Olmert clearly recognizes the poison in the chalice that Nasrallah has set before him, but he is compelled to drink anyway.

To see Israel so soundly outmaneuvered is unexpected to me, at least.