Will this be the electoral map in 2004?
- Thread starter mazzz
- Start date
SeleucusNicator
Diadoch
No. New Mexico will go for Bush this year. So will New Hampshire. Kerry has no chance in Missouri or Nevada. The other two are at least close.
As for Ohio and Florida, those are going to be the toss-up states that determine the election. Iowa and Wisconsin are leaning Kerry but need to be secured to give the Democrats any chance of winning.
As for Ohio and Florida, those are going to be the toss-up states that determine the election. Iowa and Wisconsin are leaning Kerry but need to be secured to give the Democrats any chance of winning.
mazzz
Emperor
New Mexico to Bush? Gore won it in 2000 and kerry is winning 48.4 to 43.3, thats out side the margin of error
Kerry had a ten percent lead in NH
49 to 39
in Ohio 49 to 44
51 to 43 in Wisconsin
and even if he loses Flordia and Iowa he will still win if he keeps the states above
Kerry had a ten percent lead in NH
49 to 39
in Ohio 49 to 44
51 to 43 in Wisconsin
and even if he loses Flordia and Iowa he will still win if he keeps the states above
SeleucusNicator
Diadoch
Okay, after looking at that link, my reaction is mixed. It is the Wall Street Journal, which usually has a Republican bias, but it is also online polling, which is a lot less accurate and much more untested than traditional polling methods, which are not showing the same results.
Plus, its still early. Regan's death and the increase in Reagan worship and nostaglia will create a huge bump in Bush's poll numbers and Bush will have a lot of things in his favor come September, from the convention boost to greater funding to a much better political organization on the ground and, most likely, an improved economy.
Plus, its still early. Regan's death and the increase in Reagan worship and nostaglia will create a huge bump in Bush's poll numbers and Bush will have a lot of things in his favor come September, from the convention boost to greater funding to a much better political organization on the ground and, most likely, an improved economy.
Gogf
Indescribable
No way! Missouri to Kerry? Ha! No way!
shadowdude
cynic in training
I don't know, Michigan is still a battleground state,either could win
Duddha
His Dudeness
Perhaps, but things will probably change by november. Here is another electoral map done by someone else using polls. http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
Attachments
Free Enterprise
The return stroke.
Godwynn said:
Exactly correct. Recently I have read that around 15% of the Alaskan population voted for the libertarian party so there is some chance one state might eventually vote libertarian.
Desmond Hawkins
Deity
- Joined
- Aug 8, 2002
- Messages
- 9,922
Are you trying to say Idaho ain't important?
JohnRM
Don't make me destroy you
As a Libertarian Party Member, I must say that I concur with your hopes.
Are the two of you (Free Enterprise & Godwynn) party members?
Are the two of you (Free Enterprise & Godwynn) party members?
aaminion00
Stoned
I'm not sure if I want that to happen, even though I share much of the Libertarians beliefs. If the libertarian party does become the third party America is looking for, I can only see it taking away from the Democrats base while getting no Republicans whatsoever to it's side..
JohnRM
Don't make me destroy you
Republicans are traditionally more sympathetic to Libertarian positions.
Sims2789
Fool me once...
SeleucusNicator said:
So what really matters is if Catherine O'Harris is the election commisioner again?
SeleucusNicator
Diadoch
Sims2789 said:
If Kerry wins all of the Gore states (except New Mexico, which I'm still classifying as safe for Bush) plus Ohio, he can win the election without Florida.
However, if Bush takes Iowa or Wisconsin, Kerry needs both Florida and Ohio. If Bush takes Ohio or Pennslyvania, the election is over.
JohnRM
Don't make me destroy you
Pennsylvania is tight...
aaminion00
Stoned
Michigan has a strong number of Republicans, but it is a Democratic lock no matter how many analysts label it a "battle-ground" state. So many large cities here have universities and are otherwise very liberal places... Detroit's mayor is a Democrat... and Bush's ad campaign has been anything but convincing... Kerry shouldn't waste much money on us.
Plus Michigan has been hard hit with job losses.
While mazzz's map is on the fringes of some kind of possibility, I don't think it would be very possible for Kerry to get BOTH Ohio and Florida as well as pick up Missouri and New Hampshire while only losing Iowa. I think it's much more likely that Kerry will pick up either Ohio or Florida (and I'm leaning Ohio) and perhaps forgo the other states while retaining Pennsylvania.
While mazzz's map is on the fringes of some kind of possibility, I don't think it would be very possible for Kerry to get BOTH Ohio and Florida as well as pick up Missouri and New Hampshire while only losing Iowa. I think it's much more likely that Kerry will pick up either Ohio or Florida (and I'm leaning Ohio) and perhaps forgo the other states while retaining Pennsylvania.
