World Cup 2019

[Akka]

Obviously I follow it, we're both host and one of the favourites. We're even the only side who managed a win against the USA in the past two years.

Though I really don't see anyone able to prevent the US juggernaut to grab this one, honestly.

For a moment i thought i accidentally crossed a wormhole door and was in a parallel universe (again).

Dont know anything about women soccer. Is USA the n°1 as in men basketball?

Women football world is a sort of anime version of reality where Japan, Germany and the USA are the top dogs and there is scorelines on the sort of 10-0 sometimes.

 

[Arwon]

And Canada and Australia are like top 5

 

[Ironsided]

In your dreams bros. Canada is America’s ugly hat and Australia is somewhere else. Where is Australia anyway, somewhere around Indonesia I think? Sweden kicked the USA out in the Quarter finals in the last Olympics. Who cares about training matches Akka, get real!

 

[Arwon]

Right that's literally the rankings hey. Not sure why you're being like that.

 

[Ironsided]

Just upping the stakes to make it more exciting. Women’s football needs a bit of banter too. Sweden is ranked 9th. But we are better than both Canada and Australia for sure it’s just we’re in a generational change so underrated. (Hopefully)

 

[EnglishEdward]

I crept out and saw the tail end of the Brazil v italy game in the
nearby pub last night, but I missed out on the exchange of shirts.

 

[Morty]

Think the French have to be favourites - having bribed the VAR officials enough to give them another go at a penalty having missed it the first time!

 

[Akka]

Just upping the stakes to make it more exciting. Women’s football needs a bit of banter too. Sweden is ranked 9th. But we are better than both Canada and Australia for sure it’s just we’re in a generational change so underrated. (Hopefully)

Nah, it's just FIFA ranking being comically off. Just need to have a look at team ranking in the previous WC to notice it was just having only a very tenuous link with reality.

Think the French have to be favourites - having bribed the VAR officials enough to give them another go at a penalty having missed it the first time!

TBH, even the very coach of the France team was supportive of Nigeria there, and from what I've seen, readers of French sport magazine were pretty annoyed that the team won the match like this.

 

[Zelig]

Though I really don't see anyone able to prevent the US juggernaut to grab this one, honestly.

USA has by far and away the best attack[1], but winning four in a row against other top-ish teams still isn't a given, even if they're the favourites in any individual match.

538 places their per-round bracket odds at 76%, 59% (likely to play France here), 76% and 68% - with their odds of winning every one of those matches at 23%.

[1]538 rates the difference between the attack of the Americans and second-rated France as equivalent to the difference between France and 10th/11th-rated Spain/Norway.

 

[Akka]

Maybe, but USA are being pretty regular in their play, stomping easily all opposition each match, while everyone else is having up and down (France had a hell of a time against Nigeria, which is hardly a top team, for instance).
Not that I actually want the USA to win (at least not if there is a Euro team left), but it would take a pretty big upset to change that.

 

[Zelig]

Sure, but play enough games (in this particular case, three or four is enough), and a big upset is likely in at least one of them.

 

[EgonSpengler]

Before the tournament started, American analysts were saying the USA defense might be their Achilles' Heel. Thailand and Chile simply aren't up to testing that hypothesis.

 

[Arwon]

Nah, it's just FIFA ranking being comically off. Just need to have a look at team ranking in the previous WC to notice it was just having only a very tenuous link with reality.

538 currently have Canada 4th in SPI and Australia 6th, and pre-tournament had Australia 4th and Canada 8th, so my statement appears to stand on non-FIFA, statistical model style rankings as well.

So yeah I originally highlighted it as a major difference from men's soccer and was right.

(It's actually the same difference as the US being good. All the colonial anglo non-soccer dominant countries are much better at women's soccer than men's for the same reasons. The US just makes it more visible because they have 330 million people where Canada has 30 and Australia 20)

 

[Marla_Singer]

Think the French have to be favourites - having bribed the VAR officials enough to give them another go at a penalty having missed it the first time!

That would have been the stupidest bribe in History considering we were still 1st of the group even if the game ended as a draw (and the Nigerians didn't shoot a single time on target so it's not as if they could win that game).

As a matter of fact, I'm not even sure the French coach was really looking for a victory. Our top forwards were put to rest. The game however has shown strong weaknesses among our bench players, even Cascarino (Asseyi played a great game though).

 

[Akka]

Seems that Scotland has been hit by the "twice-taken penalty" issue too. That's the third time during this WC I think ? Seems that everyone agrees it's a bad rule, but that this Cup is going to have to live with it.

 

[Ironsided]

538 currently have Canada 4th in SPI and Australia 6th, and pre-tournament had Australia 4th and Canada 8th, so my statement appears to stand on non-FIFA, statistical model style rankings as well.

Bah, you just don't seem to understand sports. Supporting a team, national or not has nothing to do with statistics or rational - it's all emotions and that’s why it's fun and popular.

 

[Arwon]

Bah, you just don't seem to understand sports. Supporting a team, national or not has nothing to do with statistics or rational - it's all emotions and that’s why it's fun and popular.

Lol sport analysis is kinda my jam. I was a contributor to this book and articles like this and this. Hell I was even once on the TV news talking about data and proposed football rule changes!

 

[MaryKB]

USA!

Instead of asking "can anyone beat the US?" maybe we should be asking "can anyone score on the US?"

 

[Arwon]

I mean if they play Australia it'll probably end up with a USWNT win like 7-3 or something

 

[Ironsided]

Not the best game I’ve seen last night. Sweden fielded six international debutants, which in all honesty were not any worse than the ordinary players on the night. Probably not too concerned if we got the hat or Spain in the round of sixteen. I’ll miss the hat game unless I remember to tune in on the radio. I’m off into the Swedish wilderness for a week.