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2010 World Cup Prediction Competition

Discussion in 'Sports Talk' started by Locutus, Jun 8, 2010.

  1. Locutus

    Locutus King of the Collective

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2001
    Messages:
    365
    Location:
    Hengelo/Enschede, the Netherlands
    Azzaman and Dauphin won the day yesterday with 19 points each, but warpus with his exact score managed to stay just ahead of azzaman and wins the overall competition with a 2-point lead. Congratulations, warpus!

    North King and chegel both came in third just 1 point behind azzaman and Dauphin and SuperBeaverInc share 5th place another 2 points behind that with Imran rounding out the top 7 just 6 points behind warpus. This was probably the closest finish we've ever had, congrats to all!

    Overall final ranking (Google doc):

    Code:
     1. warpus    		168 (+12)
     2. azzaman333    	166 (+19)
     3. North King    	165 (+13)
     3. chegel    		165 (+3)
     5. Dauphin     	163 (+19)
     5. SuperBeaverInc.    	163 (+10)
     7. Imran Siddiqui     	162 (+13)
     8. Arwon    		157 (+13)
     9. siron     		150 (+13)
    10. Solver   		149 (+10)
    11. RobWorham   	147
    12. Loppan Torkel    	145
    13. Locutus   		142 (+6)
    13. Robert Plomp     	142 (+3)
    15. MikeH     		138 (+16)
    16. C0ckney     	134
    16. Darth_Pugwash    	134
    16. Wernazuma III     	134 (+10)
    19. Echse    		133 (+10)
    20. Kitschum     	132 (+3)
    21. joncha     		127
    22. sonorakitch    	126 (+10)
    23. Weik    		125 (+3)
    23. Red Door    	125 (+6)
    25. BirraImperial    	124
    25. Bantams   		124
    27. OneFootInTheGrave	123
    27. Serb     		123
    29. Maquiladora   	116
    30. Victor Galis     	114
    31. Zoid   		113 (+3)
    31. classical_hero    	113
    33. OzzyKP     		 92 (+10)
    34. Dudemeister    	 71 (+13)
    35. Proviisori   	 62 (+10)
    36. Infantry#14    	 45
    37. Rashiminos    	 32
    38. El_Cid   		 31
    39. Dragonlord    	  5
    40. Barnabas     	  0
    
    CFC final ranking:
    Code:
     1. warpus    		168
     2. azzaman333    	166
     3. North King    	165
     3. chegel    		165
     5. SuperBeaverInc.    	163
     6. Arwon    		157
     7. Loppan Torkel    	145
     8. Darth_Pugwash    	134
     9. Echse    		133
    10. sonorakitch    	126
    11. Weik    		125
    11. Red Door    	125
    13. BirraImperial    	124
    14. classical_hero    	113
    15. Dudemeister    	 71
    16. Infantry#14    	 45
    17. Rashiminos    	 32
    18. Dragonlord    	  5
    Comparing the different sites, CFC had 6 of the top 10 players but also 5 of the bottom 10 (of course, most of those were just late joiners). WPC players did really well early on with at one point all but one of the active players (i.e. not counting provisorii and El_Cid) in the top 15, but Maquiladora and Zoid started to slide downwards in the knock-out stage and as a result lost interest and quit playing, sending them to the bottom end of the ranking in the final standing. For the longest time almost all Apolytoners hovered around the middle of the pack but in the end 3 of them still mananaged to claw their way into the top 10. It's a shame Ozzy missed the first round of matches and the group predictions as percentage-wise he's pretty close to top 10 material as well.

    Average total score by site:
    ACS: 124
    CFC: 120
    WPC: 111

    WPC had the lowest average total score as they simply had 2 guys not posting any match predictions (or not until very late anyway), which is a quarter of their total players. ACS had the highest average total score because they had fewer late entrants than CFC: discounting Barnabas and Dragonlord, only OzzyKP missed a significant number of matches and even then he only missed 10 (and had the good fortune that Spain was in group H allowing him to still tip them as champions) while CivFanatics had 3 players miss out on 20-30 matches each, which really dragged down their average. So this whole statistic unfortunately isn't very meaningful (as I noted at the start when Robert asked me to track it).

    Average score per match prediction:
    WPC: 2.15
    ACS: 2.11
    CFC: 2.10

    Average points per match prediction is a better statistic for cross-site comparison, although still not perfect as I had no way of including group winner, top scorer and world champion predictions in the denominator (at least not without major rewriting of the Google doc), so it still skews somewhat in favour of Apolyton who had the lowest percentage of missed predictions here. Because of this issue I'd say the difference between ACS and CFC is statistically negligible. Note that I manually discounted proviisori from WPC's score as he was REALLY padding it with 52 points from 0 match predictions, but even then WPC did better than the other two sites. To be fair, with a much smaller number of players it's easier to do either really well or really poorly, had we had a few more participants the scores no doubt would've been closer.

    Thanks to everyone for playing, it was fun!
     

    Attached Files:

  2. Darth_Pugwash

    Darth_Pugwash wobble wobble

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2003
    Messages:
    2,873
    Really good work, Locutus! :)
     
  3. azzaman333

    azzaman333 meh

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2005
    Messages:
    22,877
    Location:
    Melbourne, AUS Reputation:131^(9/2)
    Dammit Villa, you cost me this and my multi-bet. I shall never forgive you [pissed]
     
  4. classical_hero

    classical_hero In whom I trust

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2003
    Messages:
    33,262
    Location:
    Perth,Western Australia
    I think I came last out of those who started right from the start. I am certainly no octopus, that is for certain.
     
  5. chegel

    chegel Warlord

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2009
    Messages:
    246
    Well, congratulations, warpus, for winning and thank you, Locutus, for organizing this.
     
  6. warpus

    warpus In pork I trust

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2005
    Messages:
    50,848
    Location:
    Stamford Bridge
    Man, was that ever tight! Congrats to all in the top 10!

    I would like to thank my beautiful wife Melanie, for putting up with me during the tournament and showing me so much support and being so understanding, my coach and all the support staff - I couldn't have done this without you, Brian - THIS IS FOR YOU, and of course Xenu, who watches over us all, and Locutus, of doing such a good job organizing this whole thing.
     

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