warpus
Sommerswerd asked me to change this
Yeah you are def. in a good position to take this whole thing, azzaman333
2010 World Cup Prediction Competition
- Thread starter Locutus
- Start date
North King
blech
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2004
- Messages
- 18,165
Ah screw it. I think the above will happen but I'll go for max points:
Netherlands 1-2 Spain
BirraImperial
Pura Vida!
Uruguay 1 -0 Germany
Netherlands 1 - 2 Spain
Netherlands 1 - 2 Spain
Weik
Warlord
Uruguay 1 - 1 Germany
Netherlands 0 - 3 Spain
Netherlands 0 - 3 Spain
classical_hero
In whom I trust
Uruguay 1 - 4 Germany
Netherlands 0 - 1 Spain
Netherlands 0 - 1 Spain
Loppan Torkel
Deity
- Joined
- Feb 21, 2004
- Messages
- 4,756
Holding out until Paul has made his prediction?! 
warpus
Sommerswerd asked me to change this
Uruguay vs Germany 0:1
Hey Locutus, what happens if two or more players tie for the golden boot?
Hey Locutus, what happens if two or more players tie for the golden boot?
Darth_Pugwash
wobble wobble
- Joined
- Apr 6, 2003
- Messages
- 2,873
Uruguay 2-4 Germany
Netherlands 0-1 Spain
Netherlands 0-1 Spain
Locutus
King of the Collective
Going strictly by the definition of the rules we go by Fifa's official rankings, which breaks ties by assists and minutes played, but in the past we've always been pretty lenient about it and basically tried to award as many points as possible. Unless there are major objections, I'd say that if the current ranking doesn't change after tomorrow's game, anyone who predicted David Villa should get the full 10 points, even though technically Villa ranks only second after Müller (who got 2 more assists) and Sneijder could still pass him based on minutes played (the difference is only 3 minutes ATM).
Of course, if Sneijder outscores Villa tomorrow the latter is only worth 3 points. But barring a miracle (Robben scoring 4 goals?
) the 9 or 10 folks who predicted Villa as top scorer will get at least 3 points for their prediction...Locutus
King of the Collective
Okay, long and somewhat confusing post but bear with me especially if you're in the top 10.
No one got a top score today so no real winner and other than azzaman dropping a few spots no changes in the top of the overall rankings.
For the overall win of this prediction competition it's almost certain that chegel will win if the Netherlands win the World Cup, as he was one of the few who predicted that at the start -- that would net him 10 points on top of the 6-point lead he already has. Only North King could theoretically beat that if Villa becomes(/stays) top scorer AND he predicts a tie after 90 minutes and gets an exact score on it (pretty slim odds as it is, and on top of it he's predicting 1-2 win for Spain right now).
If Spain wins the Cup instead it'll be a race between North King, azzaman and Arwon who all predicted Spain as champions and Villa as top scorer so they will earn either 13 or 20 points for those predictions alone -- the match result will determine which one of them will win.
Imran and Dauphin could still win as well but they'd have to change their current predictions as they have the exact same one as North King who's already above them in the current ranking. For Imran, basically any prediction other than 1-2 still gives him a chance to win. Dauphin will have to predict a tie other than 1-1 and get an exact score on it to outscore everyone above him. Even chegel still has a chance here if he changes his prediction to a tie or win for Spain and gets an exact score for it -- providing Sneijder outscores Villa tomorrow.
Note that if Imran decides to change his current prediction, azzaman, Arwon and Dauphin will have to make sure their prediction doesn't match Imran's if they still want to have a chance of winning (if they care to, they should monitor this Apolyton thread where Imran will post any updates: http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?t=191669 -- if it happens I will repost Imran's change here as well but there may be some delay in that).
Furthermore, SuperBeaverInc may also need to consider changing his match prediction. He predicted Spain as the champions but not Villa as top scorer so he'll only be able to earn 10 points there, in which case with his current 1-2 match prediction North King will almost certainly pass him (barring a miracle like Robben scoring 4 times and Sneijder at least once with no goals for Villa). An exact score with anything other than 1-2 will win SuperBeaverInc the prediction competition if Spain wins the Cup but Sneijder outscores Villa.
Warpus, I now see why asked about the top scorer earlier. To win this competition, you need Spain to raise the Cup, have no one earn ANY points from David Villa AND predict a tie for tomorrow yourself that ends up being an exact score. Unless of course SuperBeaverInc changes his prediction to a tie, in which case you need to predict a win for Spain that doesn't match North King's prediction (1-2) and get an exact score on that -- in which case you and North King would share the win. That's pretty tough, not to mention confusing (so I hope I got my math straight)...
You know what, if it ends up being the difference between chegel, warpus or SuperBeaverInc (or anyone I might've overlooked) winning this competition or not, I would like to interpret the rules in their literal sense and use Fifa's tie-breaker rules for the top scorer ranking -- fair is fair, that's what the rules currently state and it maximises the number of potential winners. If anyone else will win regardless though, I'd still like to be lenient as has been done in the past and try to give out as many points as possible, which means a lot more people earn more points overall but warpus and SuperBeaverInc (and possibly chegel and some folks outside of the top 10) likely end up dropping a few places in the ranking at their expense. (In this case SuperBeaverInc doesn't need to change his prediction, but warpus might want consider changing his to a tie if he wants a chance at winning this.) Does anyone object to that?
Unless I screwed up my math no one else can win anymore, but with 40 participants even a mid-table position is not unimpressive and everyone at the bottom of the table missed a lot of games so they need not be ashamed either. And with at least 12 points still on the table (more for those who predicted Spain or the Netherlands to win the Cup and/or Villa to become top scorer), there's still plenty of room to move up the ranks.
No one from WPC has a chance to win this competition anymore, though 3 folks are still in the running to become best WPCer. Rob will get it with a Dutch win within 90 minutes, I will get it if after 90 minutes it's a tie but the Dutch win in the end and Solver will win if Spain end up being the ones lifting the Cup.
Ranking after day 24 (Google doc):
No one got a top score today so no real winner and other than azzaman dropping a few spots no changes in the top of the overall rankings.
For the overall win of this prediction competition it's almost certain that chegel will win if the Netherlands win the World Cup, as he was one of the few who predicted that at the start -- that would net him 10 points on top of the 6-point lead he already has. Only North King could theoretically beat that if Villa becomes(/stays) top scorer AND he predicts a tie after 90 minutes and gets an exact score on it (pretty slim odds as it is, and on top of it he's predicting 1-2 win for Spain right now).
If Spain wins the Cup instead it'll be a race between North King, azzaman and Arwon who all predicted Spain as champions and Villa as top scorer so they will earn either 13 or 20 points for those predictions alone -- the match result will determine which one of them will win.
Imran and Dauphin could still win as well but they'd have to change their current predictions as they have the exact same one as North King who's already above them in the current ranking. For Imran, basically any prediction other than 1-2 still gives him a chance to win. Dauphin will have to predict a tie other than 1-1 and get an exact score on it to outscore everyone above him. Even chegel still has a chance here if he changes his prediction to a tie or win for Spain and gets an exact score for it -- providing Sneijder outscores Villa tomorrow.
Note that if Imran decides to change his current prediction, azzaman, Arwon and Dauphin will have to make sure their prediction doesn't match Imran's if they still want to have a chance of winning (if they care to, they should monitor this Apolyton thread where Imran will post any updates: http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?t=191669 -- if it happens I will repost Imran's change here as well but there may be some delay in that).
Furthermore, SuperBeaverInc may also need to consider changing his match prediction. He predicted Spain as the champions but not Villa as top scorer so he'll only be able to earn 10 points there, in which case with his current 1-2 match prediction North King will almost certainly pass him (barring a miracle like Robben scoring 4 times and Sneijder at least once with no goals for Villa). An exact score with anything other than 1-2 will win SuperBeaverInc the prediction competition if Spain wins the Cup but Sneijder outscores Villa.
Warpus, I now see why asked about the top scorer earlier. To win this competition, you need Spain to raise the Cup, have no one earn ANY points from David Villa AND predict a tie for tomorrow yourself that ends up being an exact score. Unless of course SuperBeaverInc changes his prediction to a tie, in which case you need to predict a win for Spain that doesn't match North King's prediction (1-2) and get an exact score on that -- in which case you and North King would share the win. That's pretty tough, not to mention confusing (so I hope I got my math straight)...
You know what, if it ends up being the difference between chegel, warpus or SuperBeaverInc (or anyone I might've overlooked) winning this competition or not, I would like to interpret the rules in their literal sense and use Fifa's tie-breaker rules for the top scorer ranking -- fair is fair, that's what the rules currently state and it maximises the number of potential winners. If anyone else will win regardless though, I'd still like to be lenient as has been done in the past and try to give out as many points as possible, which means a lot more people earn more points overall but warpus and SuperBeaverInc (and possibly chegel and some folks outside of the top 10) likely end up dropping a few places in the ranking at their expense. (In this case SuperBeaverInc doesn't need to change his prediction, but warpus might want consider changing his to a tie if he wants a chance at winning this.) Does anyone object to that?
Unless I screwed up my math no one else can win anymore, but with 40 participants even a mid-table position is not unimpressive and everyone at the bottom of the table missed a lot of games so they need not be ashamed either. And with at least 12 points still on the table (more for those who predicted Spain or the Netherlands to win the Cup and/or Villa to become top scorer), there's still plenty of room to move up the ranks.
No one from WPC has a chance to win this competition anymore, though 3 folks are still in the running to become best WPCer. Rob will get it with a Dutch win within 90 minutes, I will get it if after 90 minutes it's a tie but the Dutch win in the end and Solver will win if Spain end up being the ones lifting the Cup.
Ranking after day 24 (Google doc):
Code:
1. chegel 162 (+6)
2. warpus 156 (+6)
3. SuperBeaverInc. 153 (+6)
4. North King 152 (+6)
5. Imran Siddiqui 149 (+6)
6. azzaman333 147
6. RobWorham 147 (+6)
8. Loppan Torkel 145 (+6)
9. Arwon 144 (+6)
9. Dauphin 144 (+6)
11. Solver 139 (+6)
11. Robert Plomp 139 (+6)
13. siron 137 (+6)
14. Locutus 136 (+6)
15. C0ckney 134 (+6)
15. Darth_Pugwash 134 (+6)
17. Kitschum 129 (+6)
18. joncha 127 (+6)
19. BirraImperial 124
19. Wernazuma III 124
19. Bantams 124 (+6)
22. Echse 123 (+6)
22. OneFootInTheGrave 123
22. Serb 123 (+6)
25. Weik 122
25. MikeH 122 (+6)
27. Red Door 119 (+6)
28. Maquiladora 116
28. sonorakitch 116
30. Victor Galis 114 (+6)
31. classical_hero 113 (+6)
32. Zoid 110
33. OzzyKP 82 (+6)
34. Dudemeister 58
35. Proviisori 52
36. Infantry#14 45
37. Rashiminos 32
38. El_Cid 31 (+6)
39. Dragonlord 5
40. Barnabas 0Attachments
warpus
Sommerswerd asked me to change this
I think that's fair.. and I thank you for all your analysis and fairness and stuff!
I haven't posted my prediction for the final yet. We have right until kickoff time to get it in, right? I probably won't wait that long but I have a lot of confusing stuff to think about..
azzaman333
meh
In hindsight, going for a Uruguay upset win was a bad idea.
SuperBeaverInc.
Groucho
Not sure if I will change my prediction. I've been cheering for the Dutch the entire tournament, though I didn't expect to be in this position when I predicted Spain to win it. 
I take it that if I predicted the score in the event of a Spanish win, I could win the tournament, correct? If so, I might consider it, though I hate to go against the team I've been bandwagoning the entire tournament, even if it means I can't win that way.
I take it that if I predicted the score in the event of a Spanish win, I could win the tournament, correct? If so, I might consider it, though I hate to go against the team I've been bandwagoning the entire tournament, even if it means I can't win that way.
Locutus
King of the Collective
Edit: I made a mistake with my math yesterday and assigned Arwon a chance to still win the competition with his prediction of a Spanish win. This actually isn't accurate, as he's too far behind North King who also predicted a win. Arwon still has a chance to win the competition, but only if he predicts a tie for today's game, and avoid azzaman's 1-1. Note that if he predicts 2-2 he'll always end up getting the same number of points as Apolyton's Dauphin, so if that ends up being the actual result today they'd both share the win. With any other tie (0-0, 3-3) he'd be the sole winner -- IF that is indeed the actual match outcome, Spain wins after extra time/penalties and Villa either scores or Sneijder fails to outperform him in goals, assists or minutes played.
SuperBeaverInc,
Heh, I actually misread the spreadsheet, I thought you predicted a Spanish win. By predicting a Dutch win today you have zero chance of winning the competition, only North King will be able to catch up with chegel if he gets his 10 points for predicting the champions correctly (and even then he'd need to change his current match prediction). By predicting a tie or Spanish win you still have a chance of winning -- but only if Villa doesn't score and Sneijder outperforms him (in goals, assists or minutes played).
If you don't want to go against the Dutch, do what I did and predict a tie
Best of both worlds: you don't betray the team you've been rooting for but you could still win the competition in case you get an exact score and the Spanish end up winning after extra time/penalties...
SuperBeaverInc,
Heh, I actually misread the spreadsheet, I thought you predicted a Spanish win. By predicting a Dutch win today you have zero chance of winning the competition, only North King will be able to catch up with chegel if he gets his 10 points for predicting the champions correctly (and even then he'd need to change his current match prediction). By predicting a tie or Spanish win you still have a chance of winning -- but only if Villa doesn't score and Sneijder outperforms him (in goals, assists or minutes played).
If you don't want to go against the Dutch, do what I did and predict a tie
Best of both worlds: you don't betray the team you've been rooting for but you could still win the competition in case you get an exact score and the Spanish end up winning after extra time/penalties...
warpus
Sommerswerd asked me to change this
Netherlands Spain 0-0
warpus
Sommerswerd asked me to change this
warpus
Sommerswerd asked me to change this
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