2012 Republican Nominee Poll IV

[NickyJ]

Note: This is not a question of who you want to win, but who you think will win. Please vote accordingly.

Previous threads:

First. Result: Mitt Romney with 37.11%
Second. Result: Mitt Romney with 42.40%
Third. Result: Mitt Romney with 56.34%

Caucus and Primary results:

Spoiler :

National polls:

Spoiler :

Delegate map:

Spoiler :

Much has happened since the last month and its poll: The first four elections occurred; Bachmann dropped out, Huntsman dropped out and endorsed Romney, and Perry dropped out, with both he and Herman Cain endorsing Newt Gingrich.

With all of that said, who do you think will win?

I myself think Romney will win, though it will be close. Additionally, if he wins, I expect him to pick either Marco Rubio or Tim Pawlenty.

 

[Frozen In Ice]

If Santorum drops out soon and endorses Newt I see him still having a chance. Otherwise Romney easily.

 

[amadeus]

The Duke Mitt of Chiseledjawshire has already been Chosen as the Not-Obama.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Another one?

 

[NickyJ]

Another one?

Last one until Santorum drops out, which would change the race. Then it's done.

 

[Antilogic]

I think I have picked Mitt as the eventual winner in the prior threads, and I think he's still in the best position to win now. However, I'm holding out hopes for a brokered convention.

I think the chances break down something like this: 80% Mitt wins, 19% brokered, 1% Gingrich. Santorum and Paul aren't getting any traction in the primaries, and unless something changes by [or on] Super Tuesday, they will be too far behind in delegates to win outright.

 

[rugbyLEAGUEfan]

Americans are by and large 1. Smart 2. Good people . No way a guy like Newt or Santorum is going to pass the test . Either too corrupt , divisive or exclusive .

However , Americans are also often whacky , God bless 'em . So Ron Paul remains in the hunt

 

[Ajidica]

Mittens is probably going to win.

 

[kochman]

Romney is the only one who could get my vote... the rest would potentially be worse than Obama, and that's bad

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Mittens is going to win, but because he's such a silver spoon elitist he will lose to lets-have-a-beer Obama, because if there is one thing conservatives hate, it's the elite.

Or so I've been told.

 

[kochman]

Mittens is going to win, but because he's such a silver spoon elitist he will lose to lets-have-a-beer Obama, because if there is one thing conservatives hate, it's the elite.

Or so I've been told.

Hahaha, don't fool yourself... Obama didn't fool anyone with the "let's have a beer" gambit... they're both elitists.

 

[Antilogic]

In this context, what does elitist even mean?

 

[kochman]

1%ers seems a good place to start...

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Hahaha, don't fool yourself...

Oh, don't you worry about that

 

[civver_764]

You know, if Romney wins he'll just do the same stuff as Obama, but at least influential "liberals" won't be reluctant to criticize it. Hypocrisy for the right cause!

 

[BSmith1068]

Outside Romney having a heart attack or something, he will be the nominee.

 

[Floating Pants]

Can't believe no one still thinks it'll be Newt. I mean, I hate the guy, but he's still a pretty serious candidate after winning South Carolina. This poll shows that we still have hope left.

 

[Antilogic]

1%ers seems a good place to start...

So is it exclusively income-determined, or is it cultural or upbringing, or is it just a pejorative applied to the other side like socialist?

Can't believe no one still thinks it'll be Newt. I mean, I hate the guy, but he's still a pretty serious candidate after winning South Carolina. This poll shows that we still have hope left.

I'd think he has the #2 probability of victory if we eliminate the chance of a brokered convention. I think he's staying in for at least Super Tuesday (actually, irrelevant of which candidate I was, I would stay in for Super Tuesday), and probably going further if he retains his solid base in the Southeast. I'd really like the two Ron Paul supporters to show us how he can win enough delegates in the remaining states to take the nomination. Maybe they forgot to read the OP for this poll.

 

[Camikaze]

Interesting how, despite South Carolina and all the buzz about Romney actually having a fight on his hands, this poll is completely one-sided. I agree that Romney is probably going to win, but surely it's no as much of a walkover as this poll would have you believe.

 

[Antilogic]

Interesting how, despite South Carolina and all the buzz about Romney actually having a fight on his hands, this poll is completely one-sided. I agree that Romney is probably going to win, but surely it's no as much of a walkover as this poll would have you believe.

What this poll indicates is that most people think Romney has between a 50% and 100% chance of winning.

Opinions vary as to how Romney gets the nomination, the difficulty, how long it will be, etc.