2014 US Midterm Election Results & Discussion Thread

[Timsup2nothin]

The polls being further off than usual is probably a function of turnout. The biggest point where error enters into polling is that there is really no way to distinguish 'I would vote this way if I actually voted' from 'I will vote this way'. So the more non voters there are the more error the polls are going to have.

 

[onejayhawk]

The polls being further off than usual is probably a function of turnout. The biggest point where error enters into polling is that there is really no way to distinguish 'I would vote this way if I actually voted' from 'I will vote this way'. So the more non voters there are the more error the polls are going to have.

To refine this a bit, Democrats over stated their intent to vote. They get counted as likely voters instead of omitted. It would cause a small shift in the numbers. Something similar may have happened in the 2012 Presidential election on the Republican side.

J

 

[Timsup2nothin]

To refine this a bit, Democrats over stated their intent to vote. They get counted as likely voters instead of omitted. It would cause a small shift in the numbers. Something similar may have happened in the 2012 Presidential election on the Republican side.

J

Absolutely. It's a lot easier to say 'yeah I'm gonna do that' when someone calls and asks than it is to actually haul yourself out and do it when the time comes. It's also in the nature of political polling that saying 'I probably won't bother' to someone who is so into the process that they are involved in polling is an issue.