Airliner shot down over disputed part of Ukraine

[Agent327]

It was regarded as safe, because rebels don't often shoot at plans at heihts over 10 km.

Actually, until last evening, it was considered safe at that specific altitude, which is cruising altitude for commercial airliners. Technically, had it flown lower (at 320 instead of 330, where it was) it would not have been considered safe.

I read this as thousands of CNN executives' nipples exploding with delight.

Seriously?

There were two Ukrainian fighters behind the plane.

(...)

And somehow the authorities changed the course of the plane to go throw the conflict zone.

And how have you come by of this specific bit of unconfirmed information?

The ones which need NATO intervention, for example.

That's not going to happen. Even Putin considers this an internal matter of Ukraine.

 

[Aleksey_aka_al]

Oh the irony...

https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/489802664264212480/photo/1

You may post this stupid image million times, it won't chage these two facts:

1. AN-26 is mentioned in it, not Boeing.

2. AN-26 was downed in the Lugansk oblast, and Boeing was flying over the Donetsk oblast never crossing the Lugansk oblast.

Not to mention the altitude.

 

[Evie]

Even if this were an Ukrainian "plot" as our usual Russian conspiracy theorist insists (reality and the Russian right having restraining orders on each other), the sheer level of incompetence involved in using fighter jets (which the rebels don't have) to carry out the plot would make this one of the most laughably bad conspiracy in the history of all conspiracies.

Realistically, the only explanation that make sense is that this plane was shot down by accident. And if an accident, it is more likely to originate from the rebels (who have no planes, don't have access to international flight information, etc) than the Ukrainians (but could still be them: see Iranair).

 

[Aleksey_aka_al]

Of course the authorities in Kiev have no plots. They are the good guys! Mr. Putin and the rebels do any kind of plots, however. They are the antagonist, they ought to!

 

[Agent327]

Mr Putin has issued a statement that this is an internal Ukrainian affair and Ukraine is responsible. Please don't associate the Russian president with Ukrainian separatists.

Realistically, the only explanation that make sense is that this plane was shot down by accident.

Shooting down a plane at 10 km altitude is not an 'accident': it is typical commercial airliner cruising altitude.

 

[Loppan Torkel]

Of course the authorities in Kiev have no plots. They are the good guys! Mr. Putin and the rebels do any kind of plots, however. They are the antagonist, they ought to!

What do you consider the most likely cause for this crash?
Could be an accident that just happened to be over Ukraine.
Accidental down shooting by either rebels, Ukraine or Russia. If this - which one is most likely to have shot the plane down?
Purposeful down shooting by either rebels, Ukraine or Russia. If this - which one is most likely to have shot the plane down?
Other scenario?

 

[Aleksey_aka_al]

Mr Putin has issued a statement that this is an internal Ukrainian affair and Ukraine is responsible. Please don't associate the Russian president with Ukrainian separatists.

How dare you! He arms them! He gave them the anti-air systems (from his personal collection in a garage of one of his palaces in Siberia) and ordered to shoot a plane (or he would shoot Donetsk with a nuke)!

What do you consider the most likely cause for this crash?
Could be an accident that just happened to be over Ukraine.
Accidental down shooting by either rebels, Ukraine or Russia. If this - which one is most likely to have shot the plane down?
Purposeful down shooting by either rebels, Ukraine or Russia. If this - which one is most likely to have shot the plane down?
Other scenario?

As everyone here I know little to consider anything yet.

 

[r16]

was Putin in the air yesterday ? For on an aviation site ı have read some Russian guy claiming the Ukranians missed the Russian Air Force One by an hour . They also apparently claim on the day Malaysian airliner moved miles off-course . American posters have reasonably explained this as bad weather avoidance .

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Shooting down a plane at 10 km altitude is not an 'accident': it is typical commercial airliner cruising altitude.

So you are saying that no military targets ever fly at that altitude?

Just out of curiosity is there some sort of 10km interlock on most SAM units to prevent shooting at 10km altitude targets, or are we counting on people operating a captured SAM unit to just happen to know better?

I get it. People died. That's upsetting. But I'm not in favor of painting the darkest picture imaginable in order to bang the war drums louder...especially since it is a historically demonstrated reality that the loudest beaters of the drums never seem to be the actual soldiers who will fight the war.

 

[Loppan Torkel]

was Putin in the air yesterday ? For on an aviation site ı have read some Russian guy claiming the Ukranians missed the Russian Air Force One by an hour . They also apparently claim on the day Malaysian airliner moved miles off-course . American posters have reasonably explained this as bad weather avoidance .

So the Ukrainians were trying to shoot Putin? That would have stirred it up a bit.

 

[Evie]

IF it was some kind of plot by the Ukrainian - IF - then they wouldn't be using jet fighters for it. So your constant reference to some ludicrous story of a jetfighter you probably picked up on the Russian equivalent to Stormfront is really, really, really, really unlikely to be relevant.

That's because IF you're trying to carry out a false flag operation, you use weapons that the side you're false flagging *actually has*. Not a weapon type they don't have at all.

As for it being an accident: obviously the actual shooting wasn't an accident, but unless one buy into consiracy nutjobbyness, then there is no reason to shoot at the plane other than mistaking it for something else.

And even with conspiracy theories, for pretty much everyone involved, it the risks are way too high and the rewards way too low to make sense.

Realistically, if we want to blame Ukraine, the theory that they mistook it for the Russian Air Force one makes more sense. It's still incredibly weak, mind (because it would be a suicide move for Ukraine), but at least there's osme small kind of sense to it)

 

[r16]

the aviation site is famous for quarrels between posters but the source guy is a treasure trove of Russian aircraft designs ; you would find hundreds of people who would talk in favour of him . That's exactly why ı have asked whether Russians are talking about it . And he seems to suggest Ukranian SAMs .

as for dumbness ı have a particular desire for a detailed description of the Delta wing plane that was "airliner hopping" when the Italians or the Libyans or the French Navy or the USN shot down an Italian DC-9 . Or they didn't .

sorry for the edit ; was not aiming to sound harsh . Before the edit was asking whether there was any ideas to find such a description .

 

[Arwon]

This thread turned awful

 

[Agent327]

The subject is awful.

So you are saying that no military targets ever fly at that altitude?

Just out of curiosity is there some sort of 10km interlock on most SAM units to prevent shooting at 10km altitude targets, or are we counting on people operating a captured SAM unit to just happen to know better?

I get it. People died. That's upsetting. But I'm not in favor of painting the darkest picture imaginable in order to bang the war drums louder...especially since it is a historically demonstrated reality that the loudest beaters of the drums never seem to be the actual soldiers who will fight the war.

Actually, the BUK anti-air systems captured by Ukrainian separatists can target up to 25 km. That, however, is irrelevant. According to Ukraine no Ukrainian aircraft (civilian or military) were flying over separatist-held territory. It would appear someone decided to show they can actually shoot down a plane - no matter what type of plane.

How dare you! He arms them! He gave them the anti-air systems (from his personal collection in a garage of one of his palaces in Siberia) and ordered to shoot a plane (or he would shoot Donetsk with a nuke)!

See above: Ukrainian separatists proudly announced capture of the Ukrainian BUK anti-air systems. Mr Putin was not involved.

 

[Aleksey_aka_al]

then there is no reason to shoot at the plane other than mistaking it for something else.

Like when it comes in a group of hostile jets.

And even with conspiracy theories

Why conspiracy? Just some warranty you won't be shot too early while on a bombing or recon mission.

Just saying...

See above: Ukrainian separatists proudly announced capture of the Ukrainian BUK anti-air systems. Mr Putin was not involved.

But... but... He backed them! With his evil Kremlin power!

 

[r16]

the BUK anti-air systems captured by Ukrainian separatists can target up to 2.5 km. That, however, is irrelevant. According to Ukraine no Ukrainian aircraft (civilian or military) were flying over separatist-held territory. It would appear someone decided to show they can actually shoot down a plane - no matter what type of plane.

the number must be 25 ? And ukranians already know their planes can be shot down , considering they are already blaming the Russians using a S-300 or something to get an An-26 at 6500 m altitude .

 

[Timsup2nothin]

That's because IF you're trying to carry out a false flag operation, you use weapons that the side you're false flagging *actually has*. Not a weapon type they don't have at all.

Russia and the Ukraine both have the same SAM system that was apparently used, so whether it was Russians, Ukrainians, separatists using a Russian supplied weapon, or separatists using a captured Ukrainian system it would all look the same. (I agree using an air to air missile would limit the options, thus be stupid beyond belief)

That's one of many problems encountered when you stick your nose in a civil war...impossible to be sure who punched you in it.

Another problem that should be familiar is that when someone outside starts trying to 'straighten things out' they will surely succeed...because ALL of the Ukrainians will agree that kicking out the invaders is a higher priority than whatever they are squabbling about.

 

[Evie]

Ahhhhh, so now your claim is that they were trying to hit the jet fighters and hit the big plane instead.

A reasonable theory, but not one that excuses murder (whether it was intentional or not). Though in that case of course the jet fighter pilots would be war criminals as well.

Tims - that was in answer to what I understood as claims that Ukrainian jets following the plane had shot it down. Which would have been especially daft, when the Ukrainians, if they were really going the false flag way, could have used their ground to air missiles for the same reason you said.

 

[Masada]

So you are saying that no military targets ever fly at that altitude?

That's an interesting question. I wouldn't be that surprised if the Ukrainians did operate their aircraft at that height because it was safe up until the separatists got better SAMs. But I'm not so sure: AN-24's like the one that was downed on 14 July only have a ceiling height of 7500m and was operating at 6500m when it was downed. The Ilyushin Il-76 that was downed on 14 June was coming in to land when it was hit by MANPADs. In fact, of the ten aircraft the separatists have downed only the Il-76 can attain the sort of ceiling height that civilian jets were using. Of course there's other Ukranian planes that can hit that height, including all of their fighters (e.g. the Su-24s/Su-25s/Su-27s and MiG29s) and some of their other transport planes (e.g. the An-70/Tu-134). But I'm not sure if those have been operating in the area and if they were whether or not they were flying at those heights.

According to Ukraine no Ukrainian aircraft (civilian or military) were flying over separatist-held territory. It would appear someone decided to show they can actually shoot down a plane - no matter what type of plane.

It's quite possible that they couldn't tell what kind of plane they were shooting down. I think that's rather more likely than them shooting down a random plane as a show of force. In any case, they'd already downed at least one Ukrainian transport operating at relatively high altitude a few days before. I'm also not inclined to take the Ukrainians claims as gospel truth at this stage.

 

[Agent327]

Seeing as the separatists control the ground-to-air missile systems that they do, Ukraine would wisely not use planes over their territory - which is exactly what they stated.

Like when it comes in a group of hostile jets.

So if you spot hostile jets (nobody claimed there were any) you target the one plane that isn't?