Alternate History Thread III

[Disenfrancised]

You can't change DNA by crowning a king, and people usually have a reason for marrying someone; I think, given the not too long divergence, Jan Hus could easily still be born.

Marrying the same person would not result in the same child, a change in circumstances could delay/change the timing of conjugal moments...even a day difference would have a different egg meet a different sperm. Of course this is ignored in a lot of timelines .

 

[jeps]

I've been thinking about this ever since I read Kite Runner (a while ago), but just started thinking about the implications of it now.

What if Zahir Shah didn't go to Italy for eye surgery?

The Monarchy might have continued on - Khan only got the courage for a coup because Shah was going to be away for a while

Reduced communist power - the communists gained power because of Daoud Khan using them to achieve power of his own, which they then killed him for.

No Soviet Invasion - the Soviets finally got the will to invade because the communists ASKED for help. With a firm monarchy still in place, the soviets wouldnt invade.

No taliban - the taliban formed as a mujahedin group. Even if they still formed, they would not have weapons or training to ever take over Afghanistan and fund terrorist attacks.

No 9/11.

No Iraq War

Isolation of the USSR (full encirclement, as Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, NATO, China, and Japan would all be allied against the USSR) - Article on Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan and the Soviet fears of encirclement

Delayed fall of USSR (they would fall because of isolation) - *** Quite possibly Finland, Central Asian Republics and Baltic States would declare independance but Soviet Russia might still exist *** need help on this one, not my area of expertise

Any comments?

 

[Israelite9191]

Here is the second instalation. It does not cover quite as many years, but they are more eventful years and thus take up more space per capita (the length is about the same, five pages in Word). Changes to the original portion are highlighted in green. The PoD is still highlighted in blue. There is a dashed line divding the two installments. Please, comment, criticise, and question as much as you can.
​

The Age of Elisabeth – Timeline​

1343 –
1.) Robert the Wise Angevine, King of Naples, King of Jerusalem, Count of Provence-Forcalquier becomes seriously ill.
2.) Elisabeth, Queen Mother of Hungary, arrives in Italy campaigning on behalf of her elder son, Louis I the Great Angevine, King of Hungary, Croatia, and Dalmatia to take the throne in place of her younger son Andrew, Duke of Calabria, heir to the Neapolitan throne.
3.) Robert dies.
4.) Pope Clement VI takes the side of Louis and Elisabeth over Andrew.
1344 –
1.) Louis I the Great Angevine, King of Hungary, is crowned King of Naples, King of Jerusalem, and Count of Provence-Forcalquier.
2.) Louis I and Stefan II Kotromanić, Ban of Bosnia, invade Zara declaring war on Venice. Zara is conquered and the Banate of Dalmatia is united with that of Bosnia as a reward to Kotromanić. The Republic of Ragusa is founded under Hungarian hegemony.
1345-1347 –
1.) Louis I, with significant aide from Kotromanić, campaign in the Herzegovinan principalities and Cumania (Wallachia and Moldavia) with significant success.
1347 –
1.) Kotromanić invades Serbia on pretenses of aiding dynastic relatives in Montenegro gain independence. Louis I joins and the War of Montenegrin Independence begins officially on May 20.
2.) Albania rises in revolt under Charles Angevine, Duke of Durazzo, cousin to Louis I of Hungary, and legal claimant to the Albanian throne.
3.) The Battle of the Zeta takes place on July 3. Combined Hungarian, Bosniak, Montenegran, and Albanian forces crush the Serb military.
4.) The Treaty of Belgrade is signed ending the war. The treaty is signed by a collective of Serb lords in place of Stefan Dušan, who has fled to exile in Bulgaria. Serbia becomes a Banate of Hungary under Charles, who also becomes the Prince of Albania.
5.) Balša I is crowned king of the newly independent Montenegro.
6.) Balša I and his three sons and heirs die under mysterious contexts. Kotromanić becomes the logical heir and is crowned king of Montenegro.
1349 –
1.) An assassination attempt organized by Charles I, Prince of Albania on the life of Louis I, who had only female heirs which would have allowed Charles to place a claim to the throne, is uncovered by Kotromanić. Charles is seized and executed by Hungarian forces and Louis I, the logical heir, takes the Albanian throne.
1351 –
1.) Louis I re-releases the Golden Bull of 1222, guaranteeing the rights of Hungarian nobility.
1352 –
1.) The Moldavian Voivodeship is founded out of Cummania by Louis I. Dragoş of Béltek Maramureş is sent by Louis I to establish a line of boundary against the Golden Horde. Dragoş continues the campaign extending Moldavia to the Dneister River.
1353 –
1.) Tvrtko I becomes Ban of Bosnia and King of Montenegro.
1354 –
1.) Byzantine Emperor John V Palaeologos appeals to Hungary for aide against the Ottomans. Louis I responds by sending a moderate force under Tvrtko, marking Hungarian entrance into the War of Adrianople.
1355 –
1.) Kazimierz Wielki III, King of Poland names Louis I, his nephew, as his successor.
2.) The War of Adrianople stalls and John V appeals for more help. Louis responds by sending another small army followed by a second soon there after.
1356 –
2.) The War of Ardrianople turns in favor of the Byzantines with The Fourth Battle of Adrianople. Most of the Hungarian forces, including Tvrtko, return home.
1358 –
1.) The War of Adrianople turns again, this time in favor of the Ottomans, with The Sixth Battle of Adrianople. John V does not request aide.
1359 –
1.) The Ottomans win the seemingly decisive Battle of Pentikion. John V seeks aide from Louis I but is denied.
2.) John V seeks aide again, pledging to hand over all Byzantine territory as far south as Kavala in Greece excepting the Golden Horn and Gallipoli. Louis I responds by personally leading a large force.
3.) Bâlc Maramureş assumes the Voivodeship of Moldavia.
4.) Bogdan of Cuhea raises a revolt in Moldavia. Bâlc flees into Transylvania and requests help from Esztergom, which sends a small force to prevent Bogdan from entering Transylvania, but nothing more.
5.) Proclamation of the first Orthodox Romanian Metropolitan Church in Wallachia.
1359-1360 –
1.) A series of decisive battles takes place between the Magyaro-Byzantine forces and the Ottomans culminating in The Eighth Battle of Adrianople. The Ottomans return to Anatolia.
1360 –
1.) Louis I redirects his attention and leads a large number of troops into Moldavia, crushing the fledgling rule of Bogdan and reinstating Bâlc as Vovoid. Bogdan flees to Walachia.
1361 –
1.) The Hungarian capital is moved by Louis I to Buda from Esztergom (Gran).
2.) Louis I invades Bulgaria.
1362 –
1.) Louis I defeats and captures Ivan Sratsimir, Tsar of Bulgaria, securing northern Bulgaria.
2.) Pope Urban V succeeds Pope Innocent VI in Avignon.
1363 –
1.) Byzantium wins the naval Battle of Megara against the Ottoman Turks.
2.) Epirus revolts against Byzantium, establishing a level of independence while the Byzantines are distracted defending against the Ottomans.
3.) Tvrtko invades and conquers Epirus, crowning himself Despot of Epirus.
1365 – 1370 –
1.) Louis I initiates a series of successful wars against Wallachia and Bulgaria. Wallachia is conquered in 1368, Bulgaria remains independent.
1366 –
1.) Decree of Turda negates nobility rights of the Orthodox Romanians in Transylvania, Hungary.
1369 –
1.) Jan Huss is born in Bohemia.
1370 –
1.) Kazimierz Wielki III, King of Poland, dies and Louis I the Great Angevine, King of Hungary, Croatia, and Dalmatia is crowned King of Poland.
2.) Pope Gregory XI succeeds Pope Urban V in Avignon.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

1371 –
1.) Tsar Ivan Shishman is crowned as co-emperor with his brother Ivan Stratsimir by their father Tsar Ivan Alexander, the supreme emperor. Bulgaria is significantly weakened by the split.
1372 –
1.) Louis I invades a weakened Bulgaria.
1373 –
1.) Ottomans defeat the Byzantines decisively at the naval Battle of Lesbos.
2.) Ottomans begin the invasion of Greece, landing forces on the mainland.
3.) Siege of Thesaloniki, John V Palaeologos requests aide from Louis I of Hungary, the request is denied as Hungary is tied up in Bulgaria.
1374 –
1.) Philip II of Taranto passes, leaving the Principality of Taranto and the Principality of Achaea to James of Baux.
2.) Mária of Hungary Angevine is betrothed to Sigismund of Luxembourg despite the wishes of Elisabeth of Bosnia Kotromanic, Queen Consort of Hungary and mother of Mária.
1374 – 1376
1.) Magyaro-Bulgarian War stalls with Hungary controlling the inner half of Bulgaria.
2.) The Ottoman invasion of Greece carries on with minimal Byzantine resistance but significant peasant uprising. John V requests help from Hungary several times but is denied. He also requests help from the West but is likewise denied.
1376 –
1.) Adronicus IV Palaeologos seizes the Byzantine throne, with the aide of Genoese merchants, from John V Palaeologos. Murad I Osman, Bey of the Ottoman Empire, intervenes restoring his ally John V to the throne.
1377 –
1.) The Avignon Papacy returns to Rome under the leadership of Pope Gregory XI at the behest of Catherine of Sienna.
2.) Treaty of Santorini signed ending the war between the Ottomans and Byzantines. Greece is handed over to the Ottomans and the Ottomans pledge to guarantee the independence of Constantinople under Byzantine rule.
3.) Pope Gregory XI condemns John Wycliffe.
4.) Władysław II Jagiello succeeds to the Lithuanian throne and becomes sole ruler.
5.) Polvdiv falls in late November. Bulgaria incorporated into the Hungarian Empire.
1378 –
1.) Johh Wyclif attempts to defend his theses before the English public.
2.) Holy Roman Emperor Charles IV of Luxembourg dies. His son Wenceslaus IV the Drunkard, Elector of Brandenburg, succeeds him as King of Bohemia and King of Germany. He is elected King of the Romans.
3.) Papacy permanently moved to Rome.
4.) Pope Urban VI elected Pope under pressure from the Roman mob.
5.) Antipope Clement VII elected at Fondi, establishes himself in Avignon. Western Schism begins.
6.) Louis I intervenes on behalf of Urban VI. He leads a large force into Italy while sending Tvrtko to lead a force in Provence, a holding of the Hungarian crown since merger with the Neapolitan crown, to besiege Avignon.
7.) France intervenes, sending a force to clash with the Hungarian one.
1379 –
1.) War of the Papal Schism continues with Hungarian and French forces clashing in Italy and Provence. Both sides make advances but neither is able to gain the upper hand.
2.) Radu I, titular Prince of Wallachia, and his son Dan I, titular heir to the Princedom of Wallachia, raise a revolt against Hungary. Forces under the loyal Bâlc Maramureş, Voivode of Modavia, are sent to suppress the rebellion. They meet moderate success before being forced to retreat by lack of supplies.
1380 –
1.) Battle of Milan takes place between Hungarian lead pro-Urban forces and French led pro-Clement forces. The battle ends in a draw with both sides retreating from Northern Italy to lick their wounds.
2.) The War of the Papal Schism continues in Provence with minor gains by Tvrtko.
1381 –
1.) The Peasants’ Revolt takes place in England. As a result Wyclif grows more unpopular among the elite.
2.) Kęstutis Alexander seizes the Grand Dukeship of Lithuania.
3.) The War of Chioggia comes to an end with Venice defeating Genoa.
4.) France launches a new offensive in Northern Italy. They are opposed by a weakened Venice.
5.) England enters the War of the Papal Schism in Northern France with a large invasion.
6.) Brittany revolts, siding with Pope Urban VI and joining England and Hungary.
7.) Second Battle of Milan takes place. French forces are soundly defeated by a Venice-lead alliance of pro-Urban Italian city states supported by Hungarian florins. France retreats from Italy.
8.) Battle of Kermartin takes place. Anglo-Breton forces defeat French forces.
9.) Battle of Évreux is fought between the English and French. French win a crushing victory through superior tactics. English retreat to stronger positions west of the Orne.
1382 –
1.) Battle of Orange is fought in Provence. Forces under the leadership of Tvrtko decisively crush French troops. Tvrtko marches on and lays siege to Avignon.
2.) Avignon falls. Clement VII and the rebel cardinals are executed en masse.
3.) Synod of London condemns the teaching of Wycliff.
4.) Treaty of Genoa signed by all involved parties. Provence is made a duchy independent of France, Brittany is made fully independent, and England takes control of much of northern France (but not Aquitaine).
5.) Trieste donates itself to Hungary out of fear of being conquered by Venice.
6.) Louis I the Great Angevine, King of Hungary, Croatia, and Dalmatia, King of Naples, King of Jerusalem, Duke of Provence-Forcalquier, Prince of Albania, King of Poland, dies. His eldest daughter Mária inherits the throne. At the behest of her mother, Elisabeth of Bosnia, she immediately dismisses her betrothal to Sigismund. Elisabeth organizes Tvrtko’s placement as co-regent.
7.) Kęstutis Alexander, Grand Duke of Lithuania is taken prisoner and executed by the former Grand Duke, Władysław II Jagiełło, who regains the crown.
1383 –
1.) James Baux, Prince of Taranto and Prince of Achaea, dies. Mária seizes the principality of Taranto, a fief of Hungary. Charles II of Durazzo the Short Angevine inherits Achea.
2.) Stefan Tvrtko I of Bosnia Kotromanić, Ban of Bosnia and King of Montenegro and Mária wed at the urging of Elisabeth of Bosnia. Tvrtko receives the kingships of Louis I.
3.) The Teutonic Crusades against Lithuania recommence.
4.) The Orthodox Romanian nobles in Transylvania are restored to their positions by Trvrtko.

 

[Israelite9191]

Marrying the same person would not result in the same child, a change in circumstances could delay/change the timing of conjugal moments...even a day difference would have a different egg meet a different sperm. Of course this is ignored in a lot of timelines .

That is true, but I highly doubt that the events that occur in Hungary will have any effect on the conceiving of Jan Huss.

 

[North King]

Marrying the same person would not result in the same child, a change in circumstances could delay/change the timing of conjugal moments...even a day difference would have a different egg meet a different sperm. Of course this is ignored in a lot of timelines .

The likelihood of a radically different genetic makeup is unlikely, and one must not forget the nurturing aspect. This Jan Hus, at least, should still have the character traits that made OTL Hus a leader, and he'll still be in a chaotic situation with the Catholic Church not so pure.

 

[ThomAnder]

The likelihood of a radically different genetic makeup is unlikely, and one must not forget the nurturing aspect. This Jan Hus, at least, should still have the character traits that made OTL Hus a leader, and he'll still be in a chaotic situation with the Catholic Church not so pure.

What if a daughter was born? 50/50 chance.. you tell me if that's likely or not

 

[North King]

What if a daughter was born? 50/50 chance.. you tell me if that's likely or not

*shrugs* It could happen, but in this timeline, it doesn't.



BTW, great timeline, Israel.

 

[Israelite9191]

Thanks NK!

 

[Swissempire]

Issy, this really is a spectacular timeline. Bravo.

I beleive i represent the masses when i demand more. Also, if someone could make a small map showing the changes in Europe, that would be awesome.

I'm a bit confused. So the Ottomans rule everything but Constantinople, which is ruled by a Turkish Puppet?

 

[Israelite9191]

Thank you. I'm finding that it is actually not nearly as hard as I though it would be. A lot of research, though.

The Ottomans rule Anatolia and Greece north of Athens, which is still a Crusader dukedom. Everything else in the Balkans is either Hungarian or part of rebel Wallachia.

I am currently working on a map of Europe, but given my lack of resources and skill at from-scratch maps it is taking forever. Now, if someone ()would be kind enough to make the 1340 map I had requested, I could have that map for you all in a jiffy.

 

[das]

No Iraq War

Why not? It was effectively a continuation of the Gulf War and the subsequent sporadic bombing campaign. The War of Terror and such merely sped up the American efforts. Not sure, I suppose they might try and overthrow Saddam by less conventional means, but that is such a bother.

(full encirclement, as Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, NATO, China, and Japan would all be allied against the USSR)

Not really. Iran was also hostile towards the USA (moreso than towards the USSR, in fact), and Afghanistan was never particularily anti-Soviet - or important, for that matter.

they would fall because of isolation

When has isolation alone ever killed anyone (especially a proper totalitarian state, such as North Korea which has tons of problems but is still alive)? Plus there won't be all that much isolation. There still is South Asia, for instance.

Quite possibly Finland, Central Asian Republics and Baltic States would declare independance but Soviet Russia might still exist

Firstly, Finland was already independent. Secondly, I doubt that the Communists had any chances without the USSR, but the USSR did have some chances of surviving. Basically things will either go roughly as in OTL or the USSR will survive, either through hardline measures or through intricate and fortunate reforms. The former is the more likely option for its survival; in that case, there would be no concessions by definition. The latter might lead to the loss of the Baltic states, but the Central Asian Republics didn't really have any serious separatist movements; the local leaders only decided to broke away when it became clear that the centre wasn't keen on continuing the union.

One problem I have with the new portion of the timeline is that it seems to ignore the Hundred Years War already in progress. France won't really be in position to invade Italy at present, so if such a war does occur it would likely be more within France itself. At the same time, England by 1380 was already exhausted and generally unable to prosecute the war, so I don't think that it would be able to really take advantage of the French reversals (which are in themselves doubtable). You yourself have mentioned the peasant uprisings; won't stabilising the situation at home usually take precedent in the order of priorities?

Other qualms:
- Execution of opposing cardinals sounds a bit too radical; but there might have been some precedent, so not really sure.
- The succession in Hungarian realms sounds unnaturally smooth, especially considering its irregularity and the legal disparity between the realms. Are you sure that it would go that way? Especially in Poland.

 

[Israelite9191]

One problem I have with the new portion of the timeline is that it seems to ignore the Hundred Years War already in progress. France won't really be in position to invade Italy at present, so if such a war does occur it would likely be more within France itself. At the same time, England by 1380 was already exhausted and generally unable to prosecute the war, so I don't think that it would be able to really take advantage of the French reversals (which are in themselves doubtable). You yourself have mentioned the peasant uprisings; won't stabilising the situation at home usually take precedent in the order of priorities?

Firstly, the war was in a period of peace. Both sides really were capable of coninuing fighting, especially after several years of rebuilding. The peace was more because France was winning and wanted to hold there gains and England was scared of Wyclif and possible peasent uprisings. As for the peasent uprisings, as in OTL, they had already been put down. They weren't really anything special in terms of rebellions, the only thing memorable about them is that they used Wyclif's theology as part of their backing, getting Wyclif, who did not actually support the rebellion, in deep trouble.

- Execution of opposing cardinals sounds a bit too radical; but there might have been some precedent, so not really sure.

After a major war caused by the dissention of those same cardinals, I wouldn't consider just about anything radical. And besides, execution of your opponents within the Church has always been a rather proud European tradition. And, of course, one should note that Urban was a rather insecure man, and quite radical, making him capable of just about anything.

- The succession in Hungarian realms sounds unnaturally smooth, especially considering its irregularity and the legal disparity between the realms. Are you sure that it would go that way? Especially in Poland.

Yes, I considered this for a long time actually. In OTL Maria was accepted by all the Hungarian realms readily, there were no qualms because of her being a woman. Her only problem was that she was betrothed to Sigismund, which would cause a minor rebellion of southern Hungarian nobles and the seperattion of Poland through the election of Jadwiga, Maria's younger sister. In TTL these problems are fixed with Maria and Elisabeth simply forcing Sigismund away (she has the power here) in favor of Tvrtko, a member of Elisabeth's house, a long time personal friend of Maria's, and a very popular man overall in the Hungarian Empire (even more so in TTL with his leadership roles in the campaigns, in particular the ones in Provence during the War of the Papal Schism). In fact, in OTL Maria and Elisabeth had expressed their desire to have Tvrtko become regent or king, something which sat so well with the southern Hungarian nobles and the Polish nobility that the former temporarily abandoned plans of revolt and the latter temporarily considered conintuing union with Hungary. Of course, in OTL Sigismund managed to have Tvrtko wacked off and live hatefully ever after with Maria, leading to the OTL collapse of Hungary.

 

[das]

Firstly, the war was in a period of peace. Both sides really were capable of coninuing fighting, especially after several years of rebuilding. The peace was more because France was winning and wanted to hold there gains and England was scared of Wyclif and possible peasent uprisings. As for the peasent uprisings, as in OTL, they had already been put down. They weren't really anything special in terms of rebellions, the only thing memorable about them is that they used Wyclif's theology as part of their backing, getting Wyclif, who did not actually support the rebellion, in deep trouble.

England also had suffered grievous losses in France. For one thing, its naval supremacy was reversed. For another, the domestic situation did detiriorate significantly (the economy was strained, and so the social tensions increased as well). The English were simply in no position to launch a major campaign in northern France.

In TTL these problems are fixed with Maria and Elisabeth simply forcing Sigismund away

Won't that alone be a bit scandalous?

Also, Sigismund did have a measure of influence in Hungary Proper. I'd imagine that he would try to undermine things.

 

[Israelite9191]

England also had suffered grievous losses in France. For one thing, its naval supremacy was reversed. For another, the domestic situation did detiriorate significantly (the economy was strained, and so the social tensions increased as well). The English were simply in no position to launch a major campaign in northern France.

And, if you notice, this isn't a major invasion. The English merely took advantage of a distracted and weak France by invading the north of France with significant aide from Brittany. As soon as they lost a major battle, they turned back and merely secured their gains.

Won't that alone be a bit scandalous?

Also, Sigismund did have a measure of influence in Hungary Proper. I'd imagine that he would try to undermine things.

Maybe a bit scandalous, but not unprescedented. Maria and Elisabeth were vastly popular throughout the realm, neither really had enemies (Maria because there was nothing for people to dislike her about and Elisabeth because she was a keen politician), and as such could do what they pleased, as long as they had the power, and unlike in OTL in TTL they do. As for Sigismund, he actually really didn't have much support. The northern and central Hungarian nobles weren't overly bothered by him, but they were closer allies to Maria and especially Elisabeth, and with a vastly powerful and popular Tvrtko supporting them they shouldn't have any problems. Sigismund in OTL got his power in Hungary not because he was liked, but because of luck, the weakness of Maria and Elisabeth, and the vulnerability of Tvrtko to assassination.

 

[das]

Sigismund in OTL got his power in Hungary not because he was liked, but because of luck, the weakness of Maria and Elisabeth, and the vulnerability of Tvrtko to assassination.

Sounds a bit too easy. Firstly, he does seem to be good at intrigue, which alone would allow him to cause trouble. Secondly, he DID have support amongst the Hungarian nobility outside of the southern periphery. The powerful Garay family in particular seems to be pro-Luxembourg.

 

[Israelite9191]

Actually, Sigismund gained Garay loyalty following his ascension to the crown. It should also be noted that while the Garays had power in the interrior, such as in Bratislava, their greatest concerns were in the south, such as in Croatia (where they were known as the Gorjanskis).

 

[das]

their greatest concerns were in the south, such as in Croatia (where they were known as the Gorjanskis).

So? Play them against the crown and its traditional southern supporters, who competed with the Garays/Gorjankis for the preeminence in the southern region. Incite a feudal war and arrive just in time to lead it, with some help from the wealthy relatives.

 

[North King]

So? Play them against the crown and its traditional southern supporters, who competed with the Garays/Gorjankis for the preeminence in the southern region. Incite a feudal war and arrive just in time to lead it, with some help from the wealthy relatives.

It's not that easy; if it were, then there would never be a country larger than the area around a castle.

 

[das]

I never said that it would succeed - or that it would be a separatist war, though the rebelling feudals would ofcourse request more priveleges. What I'm saying is that Sigismund is not to be discounted this easily. There is a lot of things that could go wrong (both in this case and for the Hungarian "empire" in general ITTL), and it is best to assume, when writing an althist, that at least a few of them do.

 

[North King]

It's not entirely rosy for his Hungarian Empire, but why would Sigismund expend so much effort for an all too uncertain war? Seems unlikely to me.