Alternate History Thread V

Hannover doesn't exist. :mischief:
 
An Alternate Ain Jalut

Chapter I : Fall of the Mamelukes

“And the Egyptians will I give over into the hand of a cruel lord; and a fierce king shall rule over them.”
Isaiah XIX, 4

1259: Julian of Sidon was born with a larger amount of intelligence, thus he did not raid Mongol ruled Syria. In this raid during our timeline, he killed the Mongol general Kitbuqa’s grandson. As a result of this the Lordship of Sidon was raided, considerably chilling relations between the Ilkhanate and Outremer.

1260: The Mameluk Sultan, Qutuz, demands free passage through Outremer and the realms of Acre, in order to attack the diminished army of Hulagu which is also missing its general. He also requests free victuals and water rights for his army. In addition he proposes a possible alliance between Acre and Egypt. A meeting of the barons of Outremer is quickly convened, and there were a few who proposed an outright alliance, and even more who said that the Mamelukes should be granted free passage. But eventually, due to the persuasive arguments of the master of the Teutonic Order Anno of Sangerhausen (who had learned the benefits of a pro-Mongol policy in Armenia from King Hethouem of Cilicia) he convinced them the Mamelukes were the far greater threat, and the Mongols even had many Christians in their ranks. The Mamelukes thus sent a large army through the lands of Outremer, which ravaged it quite badly. Acre was sacked to an extent, and many small holds were destroyed. In response to this awful perfidy, the Barons of Acre sent a small force of around 500 Knights, and 4000 Men at arms to assist the Mongols against the Mamelukes. Due to information brought by the Christians, the Mongols could not be ambushed, and their numerical inferiority abetted somewhat. The Christians fought with a vengeance against the Mamelukes with their equally vicious Mongol allies. Qutuz was captured and executed immediately on the battlefield, but not before mocking Kitbuqa with how fleeting his accomplishments would be (he thought). In the midst of an inglorious retreat, Baibars was crowned new caliph of Egypt in the absence of Qutuz. At the end of the year the remnants of Kitbuqa’s forces seize Damasccus and the rest of Syria.

1261: Kitbuqa launches an offensive into Egypt using the help of the Pisan and Genoese fleets. A combined Armenian-Mongol-Crusader-Cypriot force seizes Alexandria in February. Now using command of Egypt’s coastal ports, they attempt to starve out the Mameluke Caliphate. Egypt offers a conditional surrender to Kitbuqa, including surrender of Alexandria and the Sinai. He refuses, and offers Outremer extensive territorial incentives to them and Cilicia if they will stay in the war and aid him in his conquest of Egpyt. With the help of an additional two tumens from Hulagu, complemented with a 15,000 man force mustered from Cyprus, Cilicia and Acre he commences his campaign. Also, King James I of Aragon and a small force sent by Louis IX came with armies, with whom was brought young Conradin, heir to the throne of Jerusalem and claimant to Sicily, which had been usurped by his bastard uncle. In a massive battle for Egypt, both sides were assembled on the banks of the Nile. Baibars’ army, and the man himself, acquitted themselves honorably. Yet in the end the victor was Kitbuqa. Cairo was razed, and given much the same treatment as of Baghdad. Egypt had been largely conquered by the end of 1261, as well as Syria. The allied forces were momentarily stifled at Homs and Hama, yet their resistance did not last long, for large reinforcements arrived. To the Kingdom of Jerusalem/Acre, she was given all land north of the Sinai, south of Aintab, west of Druz, and to the Mediterranean Coast. The issue of Cypriot independence was set to be resolved at a later date.

1262: The Golden Horde, upon hearing of the sack of Cairo, declared war on the Ilkhanate. They did so because of on top of the intolerable treatment given to Cairo, was the awful treatment of Baghdad, after which the Golden Horde outright demanded the Ilkhanate cease its wars against the Muslim world. Hulagu’s armies outright ignored this ultimatum, and the Muslim Golden Horde, led by pious Berke Khan, was enraged. Unless all Mameluke territory was immediately returned (they demanded) it would be war. This was an impossible ultimatum for the Ilkhanate. It was truly war, and the disintegration of the Great Khanate was upon the world. At the start of the year Hulagu returned from the Kuriltay which crowned Kublai as the new Grand Khan, and crowned Kitbuqa Lord ofn Egypt. He recognized that while the Ilkhanate was mighty it couldn’t single-handedly rule all of the Middle East. His official title is “The High King of Egypt, under the grand Royal Ilkhan”. Also, under pressure from the Mongols to resolve their civil disputes and unite under the legitimate ruler, Conradin is crowned the new King of Jerusalem, at 12 years of age. The coronation takes place in a regal ceremony in the Holy Sepulchre, retaken for the first time in decades for Christendom. The Patriarch presides over ceremonies. This was done under the condition Kitbuqa serves as regent during Conradin’s four year minority. He is also given the title of “Co-Protector of the Levant and the Near East” along with Kitbuqa. Towards the end of this year, skirmishes began in the Caucasus between the Golden Horde under Berke Khan and the Ilkhanate and the forces of Hulagu Khan.
 
An Alternate Ain Jalut


Chapter II: Civil War

“No arts; no letters; no society; and which is worst of all, continual fear and danger of violent death; and the life of man, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.” – Thomas Hobbes




1263: At the beginning of the year most of the crusading forces returned home, some stayed, optimistic about the chances of this truly new Kingdom of Jerusalem. A few, though, were unhappy about her state of semi-vassalization to the Nestorian (and thusly apostate) Mongol Kitbuqa. Kitbuqa also had recently wed Euphrosyne Palaiologina, only legitimate daughter of the newly reinstated Michael VIII Palaiologos. She was a Christian, of course, and further added to the complex religious tableaux that was Egypt. In Outremer, tensions rose between the realm of Cyprus and the Kingdom of Jerusalem. By this point Cyprus had become a fairly sovereign kingdom in its own right, and was not going to yield all authority to the Kingdom of Jerusalem without protest just because the Mongols told them to do so the way Antioch had. They also were still somewhat powerful in the Kingdom of Jerusalem, as the current king’s aunt (Isabella of Lusignan) was serving as the regent of Jerusalem right up until the arrival of Conradin. The current regent of Cyprus, Hughues de Poitiers, was quite an influential and forceful man. For a short time, tensions rose, for Hulagu Khan disliked the thought of an entirely independent (and possibly defiant) state existed so closely to his somewhat tenuous empire and so insisted that Cyprus be incorporated into either Jerusalem or Egypt. All parties involved (except perhaps Hulagu, he cared little for the intricacies of small-state diplomacy) knew incorporation into Egypt would not work, because Cyprus was by now thoroughly European. Neither Hulagu nor Hugh de Poitiers were men much for compromise. Luckily though, the current King of Cyprus Hugh II and Conradin were of the same age, and were both –in effect- orphans. They sympathized with each other to a great deal and formed a fast friendship. This led to Cyprus pledging, if not fealty, allegiance to the Kingdom of Jerusalem, and defused a potentially sticky situation. The war between the Ilkhanate and the Golden Horde began in earnest this year, when Hulagu Khan advanced with a large force north into the Caucasus Mountains to punish Berke Khan for his awful transgressions against the Ilkhanate. He amassed a large force, supplemented with reinforcements from Kitbuqa. He marched north, up through the pass of Derbend to punish the impertinent Berke. Hulagu surrounds and smashes Berke’s forces on the Terek River. In this battle the commanding Golden Horde general, Nogai Khan (nephew of Berke Khan) was taken prisoner, and treated quite well by Hulagu, due to their common relations. Most of Berke’s forces had managed to escape and he had begun to regroup his army in the large plains of the Golden Horde, yet before he had prepared for another battle Hulagu continued his advance threatening with thrusts into the center of the empire. This forced Berke to escape and attempt to regroup around the capital, Sarai. His foes advance was proving very difficult to stop once it had gained momentum, and now forces called up from the native Christians of Egypt and Syria, eager to prove their loyalty to the might Ilkhan, enlarged its size. Also around this time, the Genoese fell out of favor with the Mongols because they refused to stop their thriving trade with the Golden Horde. In response to this Conradin (with some slight “encouragement” from Kitbuqa, a dominating presence over the young king to be sure) declared a nullification of all Genoese trading rights in the Kingdom of Jerusalem, and Kitbuqa also outlawed them from Alexandria. Most of these rights were either gone forever or given to the declining Pisans (Conradin and his advisors favored the Pisans, who were long-time Ghibellines, or supporters of the Holy Roman Emperor over the Papacy and his agents), but some had been to the hated Venetians. This made up somewhat for their recent loss in Constantinople, and escalated the already acute tensions between Venice and Genoa. The advance of the Ilkahanate’s armies continued largely unhindered, for Berke did not wish to risk another defeat, which could ruin him. By the end of the year Berke was ready for terms. His empire was collapsing around him, as the opportunistic Russians now were rebelling against his rule in their lands, a burden they had always held resentfully.We now may turn our eye to Europe. As was mentioned earlier, tensions between Venice and Genoa have risen to high levels, and a Genoan raid on the Venetian Crete now only increased this. The Venetians were furious over this blatant disrespect of Venetian sovereignty, and demanded an apology and reciprocation immediately. The Genoese earlier had even helped topple the Venetian puppet, the Latin Empire. Many of their ports had switched places, the Genoese moving in the north and the Venetians in the south. Venice declared war between the two Republics, both bitterly jealous over each other’s successes. Conflicts began in the Aegean this year, with a Genoese landing on Crete. The powers-that-be in the Levant have declared in favor of the Venetians, and thus the Pisans signed an alliance with the Venetians against the Genoese. King James I of Aragon also arrived home now from his adventures in the Levant, ready to resume his conquest of the hated Moors as soon as he and his armies could recuperate. Conradin now finally reluctantly gave his rights up to the Duchy of Swabia to his step-father Meinhard of Carinthia, yet Conradin still claimed himself as the true heir to the Kingdom of Sicily. He was unlikely to have such an unbelievable stroke of luck in claiming that title as he had his first one, for he was to have hard time of it between the powerful ruler ( and his uncle) Manfred of Sicily (who had stolen the title from Conradin five years prior), and the ruthlessly ambitious titular ruler Charles of Anjou.

1264: At then dawn of the New Year, a peace was negotiated (rather, wrung) from the Golden Horde. Berke Khan relinquished all of his territory in the Caucasus, issued a formal apology to the Ilkhanate, renounced any claims as the Protector of Islam and any alliance he had with the Mamelukes, and also denied the legitimacy of the dubiously honest Al-Hakim, claimed descendant of the deposed Caliphs. Though likely not a true descendant, he was nonetheless a rallying point for the Muslims, and denial by Berke hurt the cause of the few who continued to resist the domination of the Tatar Hordes. Finally, he ransomed back the genius general Nogai Khan (he had been overwhelmed by vastly superior numbers and arms in the battle of the Terek) from the Ilkhanate. Nogai Khan had been greatly ashamed by what had happened, and became occupied with an obsession to regain his former feared and glorious reputation. The Novgorod Republic had commenced an invasion of the Golden Horde, knowing it was in no proper position to respond with adequate force. Unfortunately for them, peace concluded between the Golden Horde and the Ilkhanate shortly after they begin their invasion of the Golden Horde. Several of the other small Russian feudal states also rose against the Golden Horde. Thus, the Golden Horde’s army was mobilized for a raid to teach this Russians a lesson for the impetuousness. They won a great victory, and forced new punishments and taxes upon the Duchies and Republics of Russia. Nogai Khan’s glory lust had been whetted, to an extent. Yet he still hungered for an exhibition against a more worthy opponent than the disunited and weak Russian vassal states. Also, the Armenians, Georgians, and Circassians rose in favor of the Ilkhanate, with its known high tolerance for Christians. Luckily for them, the Golden Horde was unable to strike back, for their lands were transferred to the Ilkhanate in the peace treaty. In Egypt, Kitbuqa secured many of the remaining Muslim possessions in Syria, and is now adding most of them to his growing kingdom in Egypt, or gifting them to the Kingdom of Jerusalem. He staged minor operations in the Sultanate of Rum, to remind them where their loyalties lay. In the rest of the Middle-East, large backlashes against the native Christians, now being appointed to power across the territory of the Ilkhanate, required increase Tatar military presence in several large Middle-Eastern cities. Many leading Islamists were imprisoned and punished, and their property confiscated for the Ilkhanate. The Ilkhan also staged minor scouting raids into the Nejd. In the Kingdom of Jerusalem, all of the final hold out barons recognized the ultimate authority of Conradin as the new true king, even the powerful Ibelin’s, yet he may have to bribe them further in the future (particularly a possible marriage alliance). Back in Italy, Pope Urban IV realized this was as good a chance as he would have in a long time to finally rid Sicily of the bothersome Manfred, and recruited Charles to retake the island for the Pope. This was despite the many protestations of Conradin’s supporters, and the increasingly capable boy himself. Unfortunately, not only was he not a strong enough military leader to do so at this point, but he also lacked the support of the Pope, who still held an immature grudge against the Hohenstaufen. Charles of Anjou’s armies began landing in Naples towards the end of this year after a lengthy mobilization period, while Manfred seemed to not take this actually quite serious threat as any real concern to him or his kingdom. A minor setback occurs for Charles of Anjou when Pope Urban IV dies (no divergence from our time line). The necessity for a Papal conclave and thus a temporary stoppage of immediate extra funds to his forces makes him temporarily slow his campaign to oust Manfred from Sicily. Elsewhere in the Mediterranean the Venetian-Genoese war continues with increased fury from both sides. The Genoese suffered a minor blow with the surrender of their benefactors, the Golden Horde, but fought on capturing several key Venetian possessions in the Aegean and even staging a handful of minor raiding expedition in the Dalmations and Adriatic Sea. The Venetians in turn launched some minor land expeditions against the Genoese in the peninsula itself (with the help of their allies the Pisans). They also responded in the Levant, encouraging punitive action by Conradin against the long-time ally of the Genoese, the Hospitallers. There was a minor shift in favor at the court of Jerusalem towards the Templars. Also, there were several major battles in the Aegean between the two mighty fleets, with several islands and colonies switching hands a few times. Despite attempts by several major Christian parties, such as the Pope and the Roman Emperor (the Eastern one, there still isn’t one in the West), their counter-productive and internecine war continued. Eventually they would force major players in the Mediterranean to take sides. Already the Pope, the Guelphs, and Charles of Anjou were showing small signs of support for the Genoese, if to just spite Conradin. Perhaps they were also motivated to prevent any one of the major merchant cities from gaining a dominant share in the power, as Venice was currently leading in the war by a good deal, and the Genoese were on their heels, reeling. Back on other side of the Mediterranean, at the start of the year James I of Aragon and his two sons had returned from their adventures in Outremer with much experience and a wish to give the Muslims as good a hiding as they had received in the East back home in the West. He captured a great deal of the petty Moorish sultanates and beydoms to the south of Aragon, considerably expanding his power base in the name of all Christendom. If we now turn farther north, in the Grand Principality of Vladimir Suzdal, the Golden Horde’s favored candidate for the throne Yaroslav of Tver falls out of favor, and instead his brother Andrey II of Vladimir takes power. He had a known record of opposing the Golden Horde, and with the Golden Horde’s power falling he became the stronger candidate. Finally, the ever pious Louis IX began preaching for a new crusade, this time to North Africa. He forever regretted he had been incapacitated, unable to be in attendance in person when Jerusalem had been readmitted into the gracious open arms of Western Christendom. He now wished to gain glory for God, and forever push the dreaded Muslims out of the Mediterranean. If no one would join him, a shame, but he would do it all by himself. Yet he wished to gather a great exhibition to forever retake the precious North coast of Africa for the Christ. He managed to somehow wring a vow out of Charles of Anjou, but only once his “affairs” in Sicily had been settled, and he was comfortably able to supply a large crusading force. Edward Longshanks had expressed interest in this adventure, yet was unfortunately preoccupied by the English Civil War. Aragon also was too warn out against the Moors and its previous expedition to Outremer to provide any meaningful assistance to Louis IX. Castile expressed tentative commitments, and yet thus far it looked as if it might be solely fellow Angevins on this war of God.


Note- I would really appreciate some feedback, or even expressions of interest. I will (in the next chapter) begin have to deal with butterflies, and that should be difficult. Any advice, suggestions, or ideas for improvement are greatly appreciated.
 
Sooooo. Here's a Guess-the-PoD map! The current year is 600, though in most of the Mediterranean world the year is reckoned at 912.

Link to map
Spoiler map :
 
The PoD does involve some Epigonic alterations, though it's not that far back.

'600' CE/AD in our world is the same as the 600 on the map, but that 600 isn't called anno Domini, no.
 
It would certainly help to spoil it. One might simply figure out what OTL calendar begins in 312 BC, though...
 
[23:42] <@Kraznaya> Antiochus never agrees to a truce to Rome and somehow Rome gets attacked by the Galatians?
[23:42] <@Dachs> damn
[23:42] <@Kraznaya> I WIN THE GAME?
[23:42] <@Dachs> yeah, more or less

War being the Roman-Syrian war between SPQR and Arche Seleukia. :D
 
Yes, the post-Magnesia truce never happened. Scipio's replacement in the Asian command for 189, C. Manlius Vulso, was frankly no great shakes as a commander, and was unable to defeat his opponents: Antiochos, with 50,000 men, and the local Galatians and Pisidians. His army was destroyed, vastly shrinking Rome's already attenuated manpower reserves. (It's been estimated that in the late 190s BC, Rome deployed more men than she had even during the Hannibalic War.) Over the next few years, Antiochos reconquered the Asiatic coast and annihilated Pergamon, while the Aitolians in Greece and Hannibal (dispatched with a fleet to Carthage) raised hell for the Romans elsewhere. By the time the war ended, in the mid-180s BC, the Romans had been driven out of Greece and Africa entirely. Things only got worse from there.

This might help in terms of figuring out what is where.
 
Hmm. Don't the internal Carthaginian politics preclude any return by Hannibal? Also it seems like Rome crumples pseudo-easily; the Republic as we well know can handle more than one military disaster, and I don't really see why Scipio (or a Scipio) can't return to save the Republic a la previously.
 
Hmm. Don't the internal Carthaginian politics preclude any return by Hannibal?
Politics don't mean much when you are backed with a large fleet. By the time Hannibal gets done killing or jailing his many political enemies he'll have little problem getting enough backing for a war of revenge on a Roman republic facing its worst example of overstretch in history and its Numidian allies. Whether he succeeds is semi-irrelevant.
Thlayli said:
Also it seems like Rome crumples pseudo-easily; the Republic as we well know can handle more than one military disaster, and I don't really see why Scipio (or a Scipio) can't return to save the Republic a la previously.
Relying on manpower studies in Grainger, Roman War of Antiochos the Great. Consider that, in 192 BC, the Roman state, which had just declared war on the only other Great Power in the Mediterranean world, only raised another 6,000 men to conduct that war, and even then was faced by riots in several of its military colonies in doing so. The loss of a 45-50,000 man army in Anatolia in such a context would be disastrous, as would the loss of a second army of similar size in Greece in the follow-up campaign. For a war on foreign soil, which had largely been begun by the machinations of Scipio Africanus and his political cronies anyway, that proved so disastrous, how much crap would the Senate take? No state, especially not Rome, can deal with so many heavy military defeats with equanimity, and the Roman republic's capacity to keep fighting on is considered unusually high because of its behavior during the Hannibalic War, won by a supreme military effort that in itself scraped the bottoms of the barrels; barely twenty years later, Rome cannot be expected to make an even greater effort successfully. Were Scipio to become sufficiently unpopular, were Antiochos to get his successive victories (the Anatolian one, at least one but probably two in Greece) and were Antiochos' demands sufficiently moderate (the dismantling of an already ineffective Roman alliance system and peace settlement in Greece, which had been his only discernible war aims from the start) I see no reason why the Senate to continue fighting for so long.

It's not really a question of "saving the Republic" as in the Hannibalic War, because Antiochos genuinely doesn't care about Italy or the survival of the Roman polity one way or the other. The (supposedly, according to Livy etc.) fanatical anti-Roman Hannibal was the killkillkill destroy Rome guy. And I don't expect the Roman state to die in the 180s; an extended, several-decade decline is much more reasonable, probably sped up by external problems in Spain and north Italy but ultimately reliant on the revival of that lovely Roman bugbear, internal social and political conflict. And eventually some Seleukid is going to decide that Italy is a good target.
 
Kraznaya said:
By guessing the PoD do I get the right to know whatever the hell happened in China? :3

No, God's time is reserved for Southeast Asia. :D
 
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