another doomsday thread - Nine meals from anarchy?

[scy12]

The thing is we will not wake one day and the world will be with no oil. Even if Peak oil is as scary as any one would think we would be waking up each day Knowing where we stand and be adjusting to the current oil supply of each different year.

 

[GinandTonic]

This is in Spain? Strange. No such problem here in the US....

Well Spain currently has it's truckers out on strike, thus providing something of an insight into what a world without truckers might be like. Aparently after almost three days people are closer to "a bit miffed" than they are to resorting to canibalism.

It would seem the truckers are unhappy about the price of fule, although what exactly they want the gov to do about it I'm not sure. Now, if they had stayed in Iraq they would have troops right next to some wells...

 

[DNK]

That has nothing, necessarily, to do with the economy. Some people (I wish I could say most) eventually wake up and see the cost of eating meat, decide the cost is too much for them to bear personally and stop.

It should, then, be no surprise when it happens on a mass scale via manifestation in the economy.

Simply, we cannot continue eating like cavemen unless we intend to return to that state.

Be the change. -Gandhi

No, not connected directly to the US economy, but to the global food market. So much land, so many people, such and such food intake per person, so much fuel per acre, etc, etc. I think we're in agreement here. I think...

Actually eating meat is what gave our brains the protein needed to stop being cavemen Eco.

And tofu and quinoa have just as much protein and require far less land and resources to produce than the equivalent amount of meat protein. Your point?

 

[Arwon]

This is in Spain? Strange. No such problem here in the US....

Yeah, it's a transport strike, it's crippled the country's supply chains for 3 or 4 days now. Unsettling for the reasons G&T said, a preview of a world without those supply chains. There hasn't been meat, vegetables or fish since yesterday, and no bread either now.

Apparently they're mostly small contractors and basically can't afford diesel now. They want a law putting a floor on their contracts and more flexibility so they better reflect the price of fuel. I suppose these sorts of shockwaves are exactly the sort of creeping economic problems high fuel prices bring... a bit of friction created by inflexible delivery contracts and suddenly the supply chain gets weak. When we talk about structural adjustments and crises rippling through the economy, this is probably the sort of thing we are talking about.

 

[aelf]

The thing is we will not wake one day and the world will be with no oil. Even if Peak oil is as scary as any one would think we would be waking up each day Knowing where we stand and be adjusting to the current oil supply of each different year.

Not at this rate no.

 

[Shylock]

tuesday? but that's when austria plays germany!

lol they are getting rolled by Poland right now.

EDIT: Holy . .. .. .. . Austria got a penalty kick in during stoppage time.

 

[Leonel]

We've survived without oil once before, I'm betting we can do so again but civilization might have to go back to a late-Victorian era lifestyle.

 

[innonimatu]

Aparently after almost three days people are closer to "a bit miffed" than they are to resorting to canibalism.

Well, it was the Daily Mail, you were not supposed to take the doomsday part seriously...
At least not as a real possibility - it won't disappear overnight. I posted it because the situation I watched in Spain and Portugal showed one thing, just how much dependent modern society is on oil. It is indeed "built into" nearly everything. Of course we won't have "anarchy within 3 days". But we should be thinking about just how much daily live will have to change if oil prices continue to rise.

 

[GinandTonic]

Well, it was the Daily Mail, you were not supposed to take the doomsday part seriously...
At least not as a real possibility - it won't disappear overnight. I posted it because the situation I watched in Spain and Portugal showed one thing, just how much dependent modern society is on oil. It is indeed "built into" nearly everything. Of course we won't have "anarchy within 3 days". But we should be thinking about just how much daily live will have to change if oil prices continue to rise.

There was a great interview with a stranded english trucker on radio 5. He was fine, but deply worried that "some of the fellas further on are stranded on the hard shoulder a good mile or two from a decent restaurant". At which point our correspondent just gave up trying to paint him as a plucky brit making good in the face of adversity, and accepted that really being stuck in the south of France for a couple of days is quite fun. If the biggest hassle you have is that the local bar only has table football not pool, well I guess you may just manage to make it through.

 

[Ansar]

Close, but no Havanah. Soz.

Pssh, I don't even like cigars.

 

[Grimz101]

Oh noes the trucksters run the nation, without them we are screwed !
ill have to live on my supply of baked beans for a month..

 

[aelf]

Surviving on baked beans is virtually chaos and anarchy for me. I hate that stuff. I can tolerate a bit of it at the side, but definitely nothing close to the amounts consumed in this country.

 

[Winner]

But the thing is, the oil isn't going to just suddenly stop for good. It's going to go into a gradual decline over several decades. Things will get more expensive, but civilization isn't going to collapse. Things'll be tight, but we have time to figure out alternatives.

But I guess a reasonable response is less interesting than possible anarchy, come Tuesday.

Plus, every Western nation has oil reserves worth of few months of normal usage. With proper rationing, these reserves would help until another solution would be found.

 

[DNK]

More strikes and threats of even greater strikes across Asia.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/14/world/asia/14korea.html?ref=world

So if gas prices lag oil prices, what are gas prices going to look like whenever the current spike hits? I don't know what the exact math and time gap is.

 

[Ansar]

We've survived without oil once before, I'm betting we can do so again but civilization might have to go back to a late-Victorian era lifestyle.

Just as long as we can bring back Free Love .

 

[Narz]

Expect this type of news story to be springing up more & more. And expect to see Narz less & less round these parts (y'all can PM me though).

 

[JerichoHill]

Two right-wing Americans fighting over who would be the best survivalist... man what a stereotype!!! this would be like me and a red haired leprechaun fighting an English bloke while drinking whiskey out of a potato

Umm, I am not right wing

 

[JerichoHill]

1) You are presuming that escape from one's immediate local is possible, but we can overlook that.

2) I think experience is most valuable. Two things are required: security and food production. I have extensive experience in both. I was a security guard and worked at Publix

We should make a thread and throw down the gauntlet to all.

]

For the fun of it

To get out of DC, all I would have to do is travel about 1 mile to the dock from my house, untether our boat, and we're out.

I see your publix experience and raise you that I maintained a full acre vegetable patch. Farmer > Clerk.

As for Security Guard...I picture guards like...in Friday, the Movie. I know Kung-Fu (and 10 other dangerous sounding words)

 

[JerichoHill]

I think this is a likely (but not by any means the only possible) scenario: The optimistic economists of the world continue talking about supply being infinitely elastic in the long run or about human ingenuity being an assured fact. Not enough people bother to actually do anything since there is so much optimistic feel-good talk, and countries don't generally feel very threatened. Things get really bad. People still believe it is a temporary thing that market forces would sort out. Things get even worse and start to affect developed countries quite nastily. People start thinking twice. People eventually decide it's time to do something. Not enough time to avert some catastrophic events. The world is not ended but is the worse for it. Profit???

Question: The oil crisis of 1979-1982 was much worse. Oil prices, adjusted for inflation, were much higher than they are today ( about 6 bucks per galloon adjusted). Long lines that stretched for maybe a mile in some cases. Double digit unemployment and inflation. No growth.

If everything today is so gloomy, how in the world did we bounce back from that to 20 years of insanely prosperous growth? To the doomsayers, why do you not have faith in the human mind?

 

[aelf]

Question: The oil crisis of 1979-1982 was much worse. Oil prices, adjusted for inflation, were much higher than they are today ( about 6 bucks per galloon adjusted). Long lines that stretched for maybe a mile in some cases. Double digit unemployment and inflation. No growth.

If everything today is so gloomy, how in the world did we bounce back from that to 20 years of insanely prosperous growth? To the doomsayers, why do you not have faith in the human mind?

Question: In World War 1, the Germans invaded France through Belgium. How come they didn't in World War 2?

I can ask a million ridiculous questions like that. Then and now, past and present - the difference is clear. So we bounced back before. But today the demand for oil is increasing rapidly while the finite supply has decreased in the meantime. Who can say that we wouldn't finally arrive at the situation where the supply cannot meet the demand?

You know, I don't revel in the fact that bad things might happen. I simply prefer to make some good adjustments just to be sure. Is that going to hurt your yearly bonus? Is that going to stop you from buying a new car? Yeah, I can so feel your pain If people are going to heed your advice and never give it a thought, chances are too little might have been done by the time we realise that something should be done. I just favour being prudent. The sort of attitude that leads to reckless lending by financial institutions just strikes me as really short-sighted.

Anyway, it doesn't really matter. My opinion isn't going to change anything. If things work out, I'd be happy. If things don't, then people like you would have shown yourselves as fools and charlatans. I wouldn't lose anything and, if something bad does happen, I'd probably be relatively unscathed. I've had enough of discussing this pointlessly. If the scientists who know more than me can't convince you lot, I wouldn't ever.