Ask an Economist (Post #1005 and counting)

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If currency is based on commodities, then countries have to adjust exchange rates repeatedly anyways. Because economies aren't growing or shrinking together, there's always a need of fine tuning.

And you can point out that there was massive inflation still under gold/silver backed currency systems in the 1800 and early 1900s.

Odds are, you won't convince hard currency advocates because they're convinced of their way. They discount flexibility, and they discount the practicality.
They then just argue that the Fed is a cartel, and fractional reserve banking is a scam to benefit all the banks and why doesn't the government just inflate the money supply by printing money and funneling it into infrastructure projects, etc.

I've been over this a few times. They have it in their heads that the Fed system is an evil cartel created by large banks to put smaller ones out of business and control everything in existence. Some of their points at least look valid, but the underlying argument and the actual state of affairs is never really proven.

Sorry to bother you with it, but I sort of use these arguments to understand the system as a whole better. Perhaps it's the equivalent of competing in a triathlon just to get in shape, but I guess I like that sort of thing.
 
I'll start again.

Astworth Ltd develops this amazing new product. It's pretty much one of a kind, although there are significantly inferior substitutes; a company using the product is significantly better off than a company that doesn't use the product. There are 100 companies that want to buy your product, ranging from major corporations with several large factories, to smaller manufacturers with just one small factory. Astworth sells the first set of contracts via auction, in order to determine market price. It turns out that, if Astworth sold at this price, only 4 of the companies were able and willing to buy their product. However, this put the product in the hands of just 4 companies. When these companies start using your product, the goods that these companies produce are of significantly higher quality, and are produced at significantly lower price, than goods produced by the other 96 companies, who are forced to use inferior products.

Astworth worries that the other 96 companies would be forced out of business by the 4 companies that use Astworth's product. These 4 companies would have significantly higher buying power if the 96 companies were to go under (or be bought out by the 4 big players), because the price wouldn't be bid up by the other 96 companies.

Now, obviously, each company asked for a different amount of Astworth's product. Astworth decides to sell 10% of what each company asked for, to each company. Now, obviously, you can't sell at market price, because 96 companies can't afford it. So you have to sell at the lowest price offered -- a price that all 100 companies can afford.

Am I making sense?

No, because Astworth doesn´t care if 4 companies or 100 companies buys their products, as long as they maximize profit (or minimize losses). Now, I think you´re saying:
But with only 4 companies left, they can collaborate and decide to refuse to buy at the price Ashworth wants, but only offer a lower price. Ashworth wants to avoid that future scenario, therefore sells to many companies at a lower price in order to keep a large market for their product in order to avoid monopolizing behavior. Am I sort of getting you?

The only problem with this is that once the collaborators (4 big companies left) decides on a low offer, that opens up profit opportunities for new starter up companies to offer a higher price for Ashworth´s goods and become a major player in that industry. Me and JH might disagree on this though, because JH believe that companies can successfully act "anti-competitively" in a free market, and that we need government (DOJ and FTC) to regulate that behavior. I agree that they can act anti-competitively, but not successfully.
 
If currency is based on commodities, then countries have to adjust exchange rates repeatedly anyways. Because economies aren't growing or shrinking together, there's always a need of fine tuning.

And you can point out that there was massive inflation still under gold/silver backed currency systems in the 1800 and early 1900s.

Odds are, you won't convince hard currency advocates because they're convinced of their way. They discount flexibility, and they discount the practicality.

I have heard you say this before. First of all it doesn´t make sense to me that price inflation would occur when the currency is commodity (gold) backed. Because inflation occurs when governments artificially increase the money supply, and the money supply is tied to the gold, so how can there be inflation? Unless massive amounts of gold are found in a short period of time.

Anyway, if it happened it happened. In Norway we have something called the SSB (Statistical Central Bureau. In Norwegian: Statistisk SentralByrå). They carry statistics on virtually everything. Do you have anything similar in the US, that can show this massive inflation happening somewhere in the world during a time period when that country was on a metallic standard? Or any other reliable statistical source?
 
No, because Astworth doesn´t care if 4 companies or 100 companies buys their products, as long as they maximize profit (or minimize losses). Now, I think you´re saying:
But with only 4 companies left, they can collaborate and decide to refuse to buy at the price Ashworth wants, but only offer a lower price. Ashworth wants to avoid that future scenario, therefore sells to many companies at a lower price in order to keep a large market for their product in order to avoid monopolizing behavior. Am I sort of getting you?
Yes, that's exactly it :)

The only problem with this is that once the collaborators (4 big companies left) decides on a low offer, that opens up profit opportunities for new starter up companies to offer a higher price for Ashworth´s goods and become a major player in that industry. Me and JH might disagree on this though, because JH believe that companies can successfully act "anti-competitively" in a free market, and that we need government (DOJ and FTC) to regulate that behavior. I agree that they can act anti-competitively, but not successfully.
Well, I suppose you have a point. I described a scenario where there were a few big players and lots of little guys, and these guys all managed to compete. So economies of scale probably doesn't really matter.

I guess if economies of scale DID matter, it might be worth doing. But if economies of scale mattered, consolidation would occur naturally and unstoppably anyway...
 
They then just argue that the Fed is a cartel, and fractional reserve banking is a scam to benefit all the banks and why doesn't the government just inflate the money supply by printing money and funneling it into infrastructure projects, etc.

I've been over this a few times. They have it in their heads that the Fed system is an evil cartel created by large banks to put smaller ones out of business and control everything in existence. Some of their points at least look valid, but the underlying argument and the actual state of affairs is never really proven.

Sorry to bother you with it, but I sort of use these arguments to understand the system as a whole better. Perhaps it's the equivalent of competing in a triathlon just to get in shape, but I guess I like that sort of thing.

If its to make small banks go out of business, how come small credit unions abound, and small local banks are thriving? (See, Cardinal Bank)

Your friends dont understand what the fractional reserve system does (creates investment opportunities). If we didnt have a FRS, then banks would just hold money and charge customers for holding. Rather, because of the FRS, they can lend it out and give me 3.5% annualized return on my account. And my account is insured by the US gov, so no risk to th individual. They probably voted for Ron Paul cause its rebellious
 
I have heard you say this before. First of all it doesn´t make sense to me that price inflation would occur when the currency is commodity (gold) backed. Because inflation occurs when governments artificially increase the money supply, and the money supply is tied to the gold, so how can there be inflation? Unless massive amounts of gold are found in a short period of time.

Anyway, if it happened it happened. In Norway we have something called the SSB (Statistical Central Bureau. In Norwegian: Statistisk SentralByrå). They carry statistics on virtually everything. Do you have anything similar in the US, that can show this massive inflation happening somewhere in the world during a time period when that country was on a metallic standard? Or any other reliable statistical source?
I'll cite Monetary History of the United States. When the US was on a Bimetallic system (gold and silver), rural miners fought to extract silver. Because silver was tied to gold at a ratio of 33:1,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_standard
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard

I bet these hard currency folks would be suprised that every antion went off these standards during war...

What we know is that when we had hard currencies, our boom bust cycle was VERY prounounced. After abandoning the gold standard, we've had whats called "the great moderation"
 
The only problem with this is that once the collaborators (4 big companies left) decides on a low offer, that opens up profit opportunities for new starter up companies to offer a higher price for Ashworth´s goods and become a major player in that industry. Me and JH might disagree on this though, because JH believe that companies can successfully act "anti-competitively" in a free market, and that we need government (DOJ and FTC) to regulate that behavior. I agree that they can act anti-competitively, but not successfully.

I guess thats because im a former antitrust regulator. I could cite you several instances in the power industry of this! (well, in two years when I can talk about those cases)
 
I have heard you say this before. First of all it doesn´t make sense to me that price inflation would occur when the currency is commodity (gold) backed. Because inflation occurs when governments artificially increase the money supply, and the money supply is tied to the gold, so how can there be inflation? Unless massive amounts of gold are found in a short period of time.

Anyway, if it happened it happened. In Norway we have something called the SSB (Statistical Central Bureau. In Norwegian: Statistisk SentralByrå). They carry statistics on virtually everything. Do you have anything similar in the US, that can show this massive inflation happening somewhere in the world during a time period when that country was on a metallic standard? Or any other reliable statistical source?

Inflation happens when the aggregate demand for goods and services is higher than the aggregate supply. It matters not at all in any way, shape, or form, whether "government increased the money supply".
 
Are there any economists that are still monetarists? Or are they all dead/retired/repentant?
 
Are there any economists that are still monetarists? Or are they all dead/retired/repentant?

There must be some, based on how much influence they still have with politicians.

The current state of monetarism

Since 1990, the classical form of monetarism has been questioned because of events which many economists have interpreted as being inexplicable in monetarist terms, namely the unhinging of the money supply growth from inflation in the 1990s and the failure of pure monetary policy to stimulate the economy in the 2001-2003 period. Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, argued that the 1990s decoupling was explained by a virtuous cycle of productivity and investment on one hand, and a certain degree of "irrational exuberance" in the investment sector. Economist Robert Solow of MIT suggested that the 2001-2003 failure of the expected economic recovery should be attributed not to monetary policy failure but to the breakdown in productivity growth in crucial sectors of the economy, most particularly retail trade. He noted that five sectors produced all of the productivity gains of the 1990s, and that while the growth of retail and wholesale trade produced the smallest growth, they were by far the largest sectors of the economy experiencing net increase of productivity. "2% may be peanuts, but being the single largest sector of the economy, that's an awful lot of peanuts."

There are also arguments which link monetarism and macroeconomics, and treat monetarism as a special case of Keynesian theory. The central test case over the validity of these theories would be the possibility of a liquidity trap, like that experienced by Japan. Ben Bernanke, Princeton Professor and current Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has argued that monetarism could respond to zero interest rate conditions by direct expansion of the money supply. In his words "We have the keys to the printing press, and we are not afraid to use them." Another popular economist, Paul Krugman, has advanced the counterargument that this would have a corresponding devaluationary effect, like the sustained low interest rates of 2001-2004 produced against world currencies.

David Hackett Fischer, in his study The Great Wave, questioned the implicit basis of monetarism by examining long periods of secular inflation that stretched over decades. In doing so, he produced data which suggests that prior to a wave of monetary inflation, there is a wave of commodity inflation, which governments respond to, rather than lead. Whether this formulation undermines the monetary data which underpins the fundamental work of monetarism is still a matter of contention.

Monetarists of the Milton Friedman school of thought believed in the 1970s and 1980s that the growth of the money supply should be based on certain formulations related to economic growth. As such, they can be regarded as advocates of a monetary policy based on a "quantity of money" target. This can be contrasted with the monetary policy advocated by supply side economics and the Austrian School which are based on a "value of money" target. Austrian economists criticise monetarism for not recognizing the citizens' subjective value of money and trying to create an objective value through supply and demand.

These disagreements, along with the role of monetary policy in trade liberalization, international investment, and central bank policy, remain lively topics of investigation and argument.

wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetarist
 
I'll cite Monetary History of the United States. When the US was on a Bimetallic system (gold and silver), rural miners fought to extract silver. Because silver was tied to gold at a ratio of 33:1
Aha, I know exactly what you are talking about, I wrote a research paper on this topic and mentioned exactly what you are talking about. And no, that´s NOT proof that there was price inflation, that´s proof that a bimetallic standard is problematic if the government wants to set fixed ratios between the metals. Naturally the supply/demand of gold and silver can vary, and [therefore the ratios between gold:silver varies as well. The government should not set a fixed exchange rate between the metals because that rate would have to be constantly adjusted, and would never fit the market rate perfectly. I am for a single metallic standard instead, or if you want a bimetallic standard, let the exchange rate be flowing.

For laymen: During that time the gov´t said that 33 ounces of silver could be exchanged for 1 ounce of gold in banks and such, i.e. the government decided the value. But that ratio overpriced silver, so that people would aquire silver in order to exchange it for gold in banks.
An even more obvious example: If the government decides that you can trade a 2008 Pontiac for a 2008 ferrari at a 2:1 ratio (pontiac obviously overpriced). People would buy pontiacs like crazy in order to trade it in at the dealers to get the much more valuable ferrari, because the real market ratio might be 6:1.

So, JH´s example doesn´t address the issue of price inflation (just inflation for short) under a single metallic standard, or a bimetallic standard even, because the prices of goods and services wasn´t inflated, the price of silver was, i.e. not inflation as we commonly refer to it as.

So JH, is there any example of inflation in a country where the government doesn´t meddle with the exchange rate of its bimetallic standard, or inflation in a country that has a single-metallic standard.

I bet these hard currency folks would be suprised that every antion went off these standards during war...
Not at all. In fact this argument is pulled up all the time by hard currency advocates. It shows that governments will go off the standard in order to fund wars. So what does this show us? That governments benefit from fiat money, and consumers lose out on it. How does that work? Well, the market takes a while to adjust to an increase in the money supply (raise prices, i.e. inflation). The people who gets to spend this newly created money first will benefit because prices haven´t adjusted yet, i.e. their purchasing power is still great (This is called the Cantillon Effect or the Injection Effect. Mises also calls it something different, I forget). When prices have adjusted your savings are now worth less, but the government has managed to buy some tanks with the money created out of thin air before the money was devalued (which is price inflation, i.e. inflation).


What we know is that when we had hard currencies, our boom bust cycle was VERY prounounced. After abandoning the gold standard, we've had whats called "the great moderation"
Not exactly. The depression happened after the metallic standard was abandoned, didn´t it? That was a pretty big boom.
Also, is it that much more moderate now?
 
No, we didn't abandon a gold standard until 1971 and the collapse of Bretton Woods. We were off the gold standard from 32-46 or so to fund the war. Note that we had to go off to fund the war...Flexibility?

That we had a gold standard we rigidly stuck too....made the situation there ALOT worse.

http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~JStock/pdf/stock&watson_macroannual.pdf

Agree or Disagree Homie: Having a flexible exchange rate, rather than pegs, enables an economy to adjust faster? Fixing our exchange rate to a hard currency leads to "shocks" when the rate is "fixed" or adjusted.

http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/Politics/whynotthegoldstandard.html
 
So Elizabeth Duke is coming in. I have some concerns that she has no economics background and only has banking experience. Secondly, she seems to be another member that will be a 100% Bernanke backer versus presidents like Plosser, Fisher or even at points with Poole, Rosengren and Hoenig. Don't you think it's time we find a fed appointee that has a contradictory view and a little more economics background? Maybe I'm singing to the choir, per usual...
 
In other news, Britian's housing market is going belly-up and fast now, according to their own government estimates. Initially, this bust looks worse than the American bubble burst
 
One plan is for local councils and housing associations to buy up unsold properties and rent them out to the 1.7m people currently on the waiting list for affordable housing. I think the government is spending some £200m in order to do this.
 
I'm having a total brain fart right now. Last night I was wondering if my country would be better off if I purchased luxuries from local suppliers (i.e., buying locally) but purchased essential and/or tools (capital equipment) from whatever provider was most efficient (so, purchasing locally or internationally). The news was bemoaning the trade deficit at the time, and I was wondering if it would help improve things.

My basic idea was: would it be better to stop buying Barbies from China, but keep letting them make our medical electronics?
 
Well China doesn't just ship to us, so any change like that would have a marginal effect on their production queues. You'd be better off buying whatever is most cost-efficient / utility maximizing for yourself. The system you propose is essentially an unspoken tariff to trade... and tariffs are not normally good things.
 
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