Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by JerichoHill, Nov 3, 2007.
Looks like the Fed is holding at "Stay the Course". Opinions on Ben and the current policies?
Ben's been a letdown so far. He's been about 2 quarters behind...
But he wrote my macro econ book
which cost me 190 freaking dollars you ass. wanna help the economy? let me learn economics without paying an arm, a leg, or whatever else my meager comparative advantage has become
Do you think he has done the right move by lowering rates though?
What do you think about the European Central Bank and Jean-Claude Trichet raising the Eurozone's interest rates by a quarter of a point last month?
I just saw this, and was reading it. Good evidence of the wacky business cycle we had in the 1800s under the gold (and then silver too) standard, with PANICS being the operative word prior to the Great Depression, and RECESSION being the word thereafter. Well, Recession > Panic.
Good read, get the PDF here.
Interesting article (not the best written). Shows up the attitudes towards bankruptcy well. As well as how unsettled the economy was back when.
The Russian economy doubled in size from 2003 to 2005 (and tripled to 2007.) How much of that do you think was because of the rise in the price of fossil fuels?
Is that real or nominal GDP? Because inflation has been a real problem to this day in Russia. As for its growth, most of it is either in energy or defense.
Well, theyre laggin a bit behind us in the economic cycle, but we probably shouldve started to raise 6 months ago, so they may be right on spot.
Of course, with the mess in georgia now...
Okay, Have a question on the great depression:
My Econ professor some years back explained that the GDP numbers in the New Deal were misleading and you actually needed to look at unemployment to see it didn't really end until the draft for WWII. He said this caused two things which was essentially forcing most of the US population to save money due to either being at war and unable to spend, or by being unable to spend due to rationing. I was wondering if this was true.
Thanks for the time. (sorry if answered have not read thru the entire thread).
Sorry I missed this for so long. The Great Depression could be said to be in recovery, but not recovered, until the war effort provided the stimulus to get it back over its hump, so to speak. The economy was...slowly... recovering, war being typically demand boosting, just hurried the recovery.
It was said around here recently that trade deficit numbers were misleading. Because of American companies doing business abroad? Because American companies shift operations offshore for tax advantage? What would be the numbers corrected for that?
GDP (purchasing power parity): $2.088 trillion (2007 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate): $1.286 trillion (2007 est.)
CIA - The World Factbook
The graph is seems to be based on official exchange rate and nominal figures.
I thought it looked like nominal. I'd love to see the real figures as inflation's been a bit of a factor for russia
That was me and to give you an example US multinationals that manufacture in China and ship to the US count as Chinese exports.
Japan is the only country that does more biz in country as well as export. China has more net business since their presence in the US is minimal. Every other country we run a surplus.
Here's a good article on it from the chief strategist (was chief economist at Morgan Stanley) at Bank of America.
How come when economist x' and/or economic theory y's predictions happen to turn out true in some prediction, it is because of the brilliance of economist x and/or economic theory y, but when economist x and/or economic theory y fail, its because "the world is a complex place" (i.e. they attribute it to randomness)? Seems a bit like chalking up only the losing lottery tickets to randomness, and the winning ticket to the brilliance of the buyer...
I think you are exaggerating, I doubt the forecasting of economists are completely random. Even if it was, economics is still useful for policy making. Every politician should be an economist.
So, what would be the best economic policy in your opinion, in our current situation.
Raising taxes and keeping spending low to try and pay off our national debt.
Raising spending and raising taxes to try to help out middle class americans and raise their spending power.
That merely shows economists are human after all.
how come the people who run mutual funds underperform the market time and time again only to still get paid?
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