mitsho
Deity
Despite all the rumblings, there will not be a big war started. (Big as in one we expect like Russia-Ukraine or a chinese invasion of Taiwan and excluding contained campaigns such as Azerbajan against Armenia)
CFC Predictions for 2022
- Thread starter EnglishEdward
- Start date
They have already been reported and staff is having vibrant discussions on just how long that ban will be. Certainly a week is way too short and a permaban unlikely. I'm thinking six months and a ban on her entering the US during that time. There are some voices though that would allow them to post only in the Humor and Jokes forum.
Some more predictions:
-Tuckercao manages to prove the twin prime conjecture, presenting the proof in the form of a Sims map.
-r16 emigrates to Thessalonike, to be joined by his enemy gulenists
-I emigrate to some english-speaking country (well, maybe 2023 is more realistic for that)
-Domen still doesn't realize that he can return to CFC
-Many people here are still fine with living in a prison-camp, supposedly to protect those in the age group of the queen.
-Tuckercao manages to prove the twin prime conjecture, presenting the proof in the form of a Sims map.
-r16 emigrates to Thessalonike, to be joined by his enemy gulenists
-I emigrate to some english-speaking country (well, maybe 2023 is more realistic for that)
-Domen still doesn't realize that he can return to CFC
-Many people here are still fine with living in a prison-camp, supposedly to protect those in the age group of the queen.
r16
not deity
- Joined
- Nov 10, 2008
- Messages
- 12,147
randomly passing ı was . So , like ı will have Selanik invaded by an armoured corps on the way to Germany and Central Europe while Atina will see like obviously a landing on the way to ltaly and Gibraltar . Any specific locations you want to discuss for detachments set aside ?
Plausible, as long as those chickens also come with restrictions on humans of civil liberties/travel/hours out/mask wearing/fines and so on and so on ^_^
Zardnaar
Deity
Hygro
soundcloud.com/hygro/
I predict that inflation will continue through 2022
congressional republicans will block spending bills
Here’s my specific one: the fed will raise rates and then reverse course.
Tesla won’t fail
sick photos from the web(b?) telescope.
delta will continue to ravage the unvaccinated, omicron will get many vaccinated people mildly sick
republicans will sweep midterms
Biden will continue to be the best president of my lifetime, and will have below average popularity
congressional republicans will block spending bills
Here’s my specific one: the fed will raise rates and then reverse course.
Tesla won’t fail
sick photos from the web(b?) telescope.
delta will continue to ravage the unvaccinated, omicron will get many vaccinated people mildly sick
republicans will sweep midterms
Biden will continue to be the best president of my lifetime, and will have below average popularity
I don't think China-Taiwan kicks off. That is overhyped. At least in 2022, it won't happen.
I'm leaning towards Russia-Ukraine doesn't kick off to full-scale war. Skirmishes, and maybe the border shifts a bit. But less certain than in regards to China.
I think we see way more ugly anti-Muslim pogroms in India. Their politics are getting nasty.
COVID is done in terms of lockdowns. Not in the sense that it will stop killing people. But Omicron is too infectious, and in the West at least, anybody who isn't vaccinated at this point are the poor immune-compromised who nobody actually cares about, or the wilful anti-vaxxers at this point. Masks will come and go, as will testing and various travel restrictions. But lockdowns to save the rabid anti-vaxxers is just not worth it. Covid elimination was made impossible, and there is no appetite to try it. COVID was a monumental failure of humanity, and particular countries, and we just have to eat the cost of lives lost, ruined and economic damage.
I think maybe a half dozen to a dozen countries in 2022 get to the mandate vaccinations stage, following Austria and Ecuador. It should be more, but too few places really want to make it have teeth. It's the only real solution. Most will stick to some employee mandates, but not universal.
Anti-vaxxers, Qanon, and the whole ball of conspiracy nuts are going to be a consistent feature of politics and media, even if they don't show up in the same way, attached to the same issues. It's clear that there is a large segment of the population, particularly people who let their brains be pre-melted by evangelical religion or various alternative spirituality nonsense, who just can't handle online propaganda, and will fall for anything. Even naked grifts, and things that get them killed. It's just a cheap offensive method, so it's going to keep getting used, both by foreign enemies and domestic grifters who want to make a buck off dumb people.
Hopefully in Australia Morrison loses the coming Federal election. He has done nothing right, everything good that Australia has done has been the work of the State Governments, and his only legislative interest is a bill to allow religious discrimination. I'm sick of Australia being so anti-climate. But I thought he was going to lose in 2019, and that didn't happen.
I think globally, the economy comes back strong, and we see inflation fears (overblown as they are), start to recede as supply chains issues get sorted, and real investments in productivity start to take effect. The economic response by governments, particularly the US were much better than 2008-9. Growth will regretfully slow, and own goals will be kicked.
In terms of own goals, I doubt immigration is going to recover properly in the US. I think a mangled BBB eventually gets passed, and there are some bipartisan China competition bills that probably get passed. Biden doesn't seem to want to take action on rolling the tariffs back.
In regards to the UK, I think Boris flounders but stays on. Seems the Tories stayed on way too long, thanks to Corbyn's fumbling and Brexit. They needlessly suffer for doing Brexit, but it will take a while to even really think about rejoining.
As for the Midterms. I don't think Democrats get killed in the same way in the House. If you actually track redistricting, Republicans are mostly tapped out, lost some states from last time that are now drawn by commissions, and Democrats have a few places they are gerrymandering back. With so few competitive seats, I doubt the seat number is close to 2010 or 2014. Republicans almost certainly still take back the House, unless Biden's numbers really recover. But it will be possible to win back in 2024 if Biden wins reelection, unlike 2012, where despite Obama winning reelection solidly, they weren't even close to taking the House back.
The Senate is the rough part. Ignoring 2022 to start. In 2024, Democrats have to defend this map
Ohio, Montana and West Virginia Senate seats, in states that Trump won solidly, and will almost certainly go Republican in 2024. Maybe one of them hangs on, but really its almost a guaranteed 3 seat loss baked in. While a lot of narrowly Biden won states are also up. The only really offensive targets are Florida which often slips out of Democratic hands, and Texas which will be a monster spending battle.
So to maintain a bare majority, Democrats really need to net 2-3 seats in 2022. Otherwise, they go into a Senate minority they will have a very tough spot to fight out of. In 2022 they have targets, but it's a bad year.
Optimistically in a good year, they can win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with an outside shot at North Carolina. But given normal midterm dynamics, they are more likely to lose Georgia and Arizona and maybe Nevada and capture none of their offensive targets. So they could lose 3 in 2022, and then 3 in 2024, and be in 44-56 minority, even if they draw or win the popular vote in each of these years.
So yeah, I think the Midterms are going to be disappointing, and we are going to see the same lame-duck Democratic President, have to fend off budget shutdowns, and other insanity, while being unable to make progress.
I'm leaning towards Russia-Ukraine doesn't kick off to full-scale war. Skirmishes, and maybe the border shifts a bit. But less certain than in regards to China.
I think we see way more ugly anti-Muslim pogroms in India. Their politics are getting nasty.
COVID is done in terms of lockdowns. Not in the sense that it will stop killing people. But Omicron is too infectious, and in the West at least, anybody who isn't vaccinated at this point are the poor immune-compromised who nobody actually cares about, or the wilful anti-vaxxers at this point. Masks will come and go, as will testing and various travel restrictions. But lockdowns to save the rabid anti-vaxxers is just not worth it. Covid elimination was made impossible, and there is no appetite to try it. COVID was a monumental failure of humanity, and particular countries, and we just have to eat the cost of lives lost, ruined and economic damage.
I think maybe a half dozen to a dozen countries in 2022 get to the mandate vaccinations stage, following Austria and Ecuador. It should be more, but too few places really want to make it have teeth. It's the only real solution. Most will stick to some employee mandates, but not universal.
Anti-vaxxers, Qanon, and the whole ball of conspiracy nuts are going to be a consistent feature of politics and media, even if they don't show up in the same way, attached to the same issues. It's clear that there is a large segment of the population, particularly people who let their brains be pre-melted by evangelical religion or various alternative spirituality nonsense, who just can't handle online propaganda, and will fall for anything. Even naked grifts, and things that get them killed. It's just a cheap offensive method, so it's going to keep getting used, both by foreign enemies and domestic grifters who want to make a buck off dumb people.
Hopefully in Australia Morrison loses the coming Federal election. He has done nothing right, everything good that Australia has done has been the work of the State Governments, and his only legislative interest is a bill to allow religious discrimination. I'm sick of Australia being so anti-climate. But I thought he was going to lose in 2019, and that didn't happen.
I think globally, the economy comes back strong, and we see inflation fears (overblown as they are), start to recede as supply chains issues get sorted, and real investments in productivity start to take effect. The economic response by governments, particularly the US were much better than 2008-9. Growth will regretfully slow, and own goals will be kicked.
In terms of own goals, I doubt immigration is going to recover properly in the US. I think a mangled BBB eventually gets passed, and there are some bipartisan China competition bills that probably get passed. Biden doesn't seem to want to take action on rolling the tariffs back.
In regards to the UK, I think Boris flounders but stays on. Seems the Tories stayed on way too long, thanks to Corbyn's fumbling and Brexit. They needlessly suffer for doing Brexit, but it will take a while to even really think about rejoining.
As for the Midterms. I don't think Democrats get killed in the same way in the House. If you actually track redistricting, Republicans are mostly tapped out, lost some states from last time that are now drawn by commissions, and Democrats have a few places they are gerrymandering back. With so few competitive seats, I doubt the seat number is close to 2010 or 2014. Republicans almost certainly still take back the House, unless Biden's numbers really recover. But it will be possible to win back in 2024 if Biden wins reelection, unlike 2012, where despite Obama winning reelection solidly, they weren't even close to taking the House back.
The Senate is the rough part. Ignoring 2022 to start. In 2024, Democrats have to defend this map
Ohio, Montana and West Virginia Senate seats, in states that Trump won solidly, and will almost certainly go Republican in 2024. Maybe one of them hangs on, but really its almost a guaranteed 3 seat loss baked in. While a lot of narrowly Biden won states are also up. The only really offensive targets are Florida which often slips out of Democratic hands, and Texas which will be a monster spending battle.
So to maintain a bare majority, Democrats really need to net 2-3 seats in 2022. Otherwise, they go into a Senate minority they will have a very tough spot to fight out of. In 2022 they have targets, but it's a bad year.
Optimistically in a good year, they can win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with an outside shot at North Carolina. But given normal midterm dynamics, they are more likely to lose Georgia and Arizona and maybe Nevada and capture none of their offensive targets. So they could lose 3 in 2022, and then 3 in 2024, and be in 44-56 minority, even if they draw or win the popular vote in each of these years.
So yeah, I think the Midterms are going to be disappointing, and we are going to see the same lame-duck Democratic President, have to fend off budget shutdowns, and other insanity, while being unable to make progress.
Last edited:
Hygro
soundcloud.com/hygro/
Thorgalaeg
Deity
Then i must be among the last ones who got delta past Christmas. I lost completely taste and smell for a week or so.
amadeus
Bishop of Bio-Dome
When you’re hot, you’re hot!
Spidernova
Warlord
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2008
- Messages
- 258
I'm gonna bet James Webb finds some form of alien life
James Webb (October 7, 1906 – March 27, 1992) Not likely. He has been dead for 30 years!
It would be nice if it did.
Gelion
Retired Captain
I'll owe you a beer if you are right.
caketastydelish
Deity
- Joined
- Apr 12, 2008
- Messages
- 9,718
Super Bowl is rams vs chiefs with a chiefs victory.
Angst
Rambling and inconsistent
i wish.
Zkribbler
Deity
Ferocitus
Deity
1 million Covid-related deaths in the USA by 10 March.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
1 million deaths in Afghanistan by the end of the year.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
1 million deaths in Afghanistan by the end of the year.
Hygro
soundcloud.com/hygro/
You get 0.33 points for this prediction.
