Originally posted by praestare
Yes, it is. But China's strategic target is not to compete w/ US all around the world, but to be a regional power in the surrounding areas. I feel China could afford the military expenses, if taking into account of the continuing economic growth.
The Russian analogy does not apply to China, because 1) China doesn't need a worldwide military force, rather only a regional one. So China doesn't need to outspend US; 2) Russian economy was never very large, while it's estimated that China will have larger GDP than Japan in 20-30 years; 3) Russia had a communist economy structure during the cold war, while China is turing to market economy. 4) China has 1.3 billion population even now, think of the huge domestic demand.
1) I'm not speaking of China competing with the U.S. militarily on a world-wide basis. That may occur, but it will take even longer than simply to build the force to have a chance of successfully invade Taiwan.
I think you still underestimate the size of the task, assuming the U.S. is involved. Let's take a look at what is required:
- Amphibious landing craft for the initial wave. Enough to support say 3-5 divisions.
- Sufficient air assets to overcome the combined force of 2-3 carrier battle groups, plus the Taiwanese air force. This would also include AWACs support. This should also consider that PRC aircraft and avionics are generations behind American technology.
- Sufficient surface assets to protect the invasion force from the carrier battle groups.
- Sufficient ASW assets to protect the invasion force from U.S. submarines.
- Logistical support for both the invasion fleet, the invasion force, and the surface fleet.
- Assuming the initial invasion was successful, you would want to supply them by air as soon as they had captured an airhead. This means your initial force would likely include at least one airborne division, plus the air transport fleet to deliver them and supplies afterward. Plus even more aircraft to protect them.
- I would think you would have to deliver at least one armoured division. Even the U.S. has trouble moving armored divisions. The transport and logistical support required is HUGE.
Currently, the PRC has very few of these assets. Ignoring the time required to develop these assets, they are an incredible capital investment.
Let's put it this way. Even if the PRC cloned the current U.S. military force it would be a risky adventure with huge casualties almost guaranteed regardless of the outcome. This should begin to illustrate the magnitude of the effort required.
I'm no military expert, so don't have much to say the military plan to take Taiwan. But one alternative to a large scale amphibious attack is to block Taiwan from the outside world. Without the interference of US, I think China can successfully block Taiwan seaports, even now, though there may be heavy casulties. Once blocked, I'm not sure whether Taiwan can survive long enough without important strategic resources, like oil. Like in Civ3, once a city is block out of trade, it's dead.
Well, if the U.S. is not in the picture then the result is likely inevitable. However, the unless something remarkable happens, the U.S. will likely not commit itself one way or another. The PRC could never embark on this mission without knowing where the U.S. stood.
Also, though chinese fighters are not so advanced, but mainland can produce them like producing cars during wartime. Taiwan has to resort to US, even for parts. How can the small amount of fighters of Taiwan fight a 2-year war?
It's not planes, it's pilots. PRC pilots take just as long to train as Taiwanese.
The Taiwanese has a qualitative advantage, plus are backed by AWAC, and are fighting over home turf. The PRC has a quantitative advantage, but is fighting over water. While the lessons of the Battle of Britain may not be fully relevant, they probably shouldn't be totally ignored either.
Obscure historical fact: The first air to air missile kill was claimed by a Taiwanese F-86 over the Formosa Straight.
Plus, China can attack with missiles. and I read that China now had long range rocket artillery, which can cover some areas of Taiwan, not sure though.
Missiles can't occupy ground. Plus, I think there are ample historical examples of how these sorts of weapons don't have the desired effect on the will of the target population.
So assume that US won't interfere, mainland's military threat to Taiwan is credible.
Of course. I would say that, without U.S. involvment, the result is probably inevitable.
/bruce