Congrats to the newest European State

[Bozo Erectus]

Predictions of violence in the Balkans, great prescience.

True, you'll never go broke betting on that.

 

[Winner]

I hate to rain on the parade, but this seperation isnt going to prevent future violence, its going to directly lead to a new conflict.

Bold statement, anything to back it up?

 

[Reno]

Congratulations to the people of Montenegro.

Although this is going to make Serbia's economy quite worse, as Montenegro was one of the most richest place in Serbia since Yugoslavia's collapse. however, this is going to speed up the joining of Montenegro to the EU as, unlike Serbia, their papers are quite clean.

 

[Mirc]

Actually it's not Montenegro, nor Muntenegro, it is Crne Gore.

 

[Winner]

By the way, how many of you have actually been to Montenegro? It may be one of the more prosperous countries in the Balkans, but from my experience... well, let's just say I now understand how Austrians or West Germans felt when they first visited my country after the velvet revolution.

This country needs time, a lot of time. Ten years at least, but 20 is more realistic. Besides, EU is no in no mood for another commitments. All Balkan countries will join eventually, but right now, we need to take care of more immediate problems.

 

[Bozo Erectus]

Bold statement, anything to back it up?

Absolutely nothing solid. Just a little knowledge of history, human nature, and the certainty that the splitting up of assets is going to cause enormous amount of resentment in Serbia. Losing access to the Adriatic wont go down very well in Serbia Id imagine.

 

[classical_hero]

So that means there is yet another small insignificant nations created. I thought in these times that safety in numbers would be better.

 

[Winner]

Absolutely nothing solid. Just a little knowledge of history, human nature, and the certainty that the splitting up of assets is going to cause enormous amount of resentment in Serbia. Losing access to the Adriatic wont go down very well in Serbia Id imagine.

In my opinion (and experience), the peacefull split-up is always a good thing, because otherwise it can be only worse. When two countries seperate peacefully, their relations become better than they were in one quasi-federation with constant bickering and disputes over absurdities.

Czechs and Slovaks have much better relations now, when we are seperate. It helped to settle things a bit. I know our experience isn't fully relevant to Balkans, but Serbia seems to be down now. Too down, in my opinion. If the West forces them to let Kosovo go, it will be a big mistake.

 

[Bozo Erectus]

In my opinion (and experience), the peacefull split-up is always a good thing, because otherwise it can be only worse. When two countries seperate peacefully, their relations become better than they were in one quasi-federation with constant bickering and disputes over absurdities.

Czechs and Slovaks have much better relations now, when we are seperate. It helped to settle things a bit. I know our experience isn't fully relevant to Balkans, but Serbia seems to be down now. Too down, in my opinion. If the West forces them to let Kosovo go, it will be a big mistake.

Well I certainly hope that Im just being a pessimist, and everything goes well for them both. Correct me if Im wrong, you know alot more about it than I do, but the big difference in the break up of Czechoslovakia was that the poor part of the country, Slovakia, inexplicably wanted to end its association with the more prosperous Czech part. The difference here being that Montenegro, the side that wants seperation, is the more prosperous one. Is that right?

 

[De Lorimier]

Way to go Montenegro!

 

[Hakim]

I thought it was Czech who left? Btw wasn't that a pretty clean cut? I think MonteNegro have a lot of serb inhabitants.

 

[Bozo Erectus]

Oh another reason I foresee problems is the fact that it was such a close vote. Almost half the population is against it.

I think MonteNegro have a lot of serb inhabitants.

Yep, I didnt see your post, but it almost could be in response to it.

 

[deo]

This will also speed up Kosovo's Independence, yeah!

 

[Winner]

Well I certainly hope that Im just being a pessimist, and everything goes well for them both.

I just think that Serbs have no reason or will to fight Montenegrians. They are de facto independent for years. They have nothing to gain.

Correct me if Im wrong, you know alot more about it than I do, but the big difference in the break up of Czechoslovakia was that the poor part of the country, Slovakia, inexplicably wanted to end its association with the more prosperous Czech part. The difference here being that Montenegro, the side that wants seperation, is the more prosperous one. Is that right?

Well, it's more complicated. In fact, a not well known fact, it was us who seperated. Slovaks wanted a sort of confederation (you know, that entity of two independent states which cannot agree on a single thing) with Czechs, but with their own currency, army, foreign policy and so on. Our government realized that the only thing they really want is our money (in federal Czechoslovakia, the budged was divided a fifty-fifty, so the poorer Slovakia generating only 1/3 of the GDP received 1/2 of the federal funding) so it presented them with an ultimatum: you will either agree on a viable one-state solution (a functioning federation) and we will then continue to fund you, or we will go separate. You know how the story ended.

Montenegro is maybe a bit more developed, but it is very, very small. Serbia has about 10 millions of inhabitants, Montenegro about 600,000. The only importance it may have is that it provides Serbia with an access to the sea. That's all, nothing to fight for, especially with whole Europe watching you.

 

[Winner]

This will also speed up Kosovo's Independence, yeah!

God forbid!

 

[Lotus49]

It's ideal, really. Everyone finally gets their own country, yet, they're still united under the EU. Who could ask for more...?

 

[Bozo Erectus]

Well, it's more complicated. In fact, a not well known fact, it was us who seperated. Slovaks wanted a sort of confederation (you know, that entity of two independent states which cannot agree on a single thing) with Czechs, but with their own currency, army, foreign policy and so on. Our government realized that the only thing they really want is our money (in federal Czechoslovakia, the budged was divided a fifty-fifty, so the poorer Slovakia generating only 1/3 of the GDP received 1/2 of the federal funding) so it presented them with an ultimatum: you will either agree on a viable one-state solution (a functioning federation) and we will then continue to fund you, or we will go separate. You know how the story ended.

Montenegro is maybe a bit more developed, but it is very, very small. Serbia has about 10 millions of inhabitants, Montenegro about 600,000. The only importance it may have is that it provides Serbia with an access to the sea. That's all, nothing to fight for, especially with whole Europe watching you.

Ah, thanks for explaining the Czech-Slovak seperation, I didnt know about the Slovaks proposing a confederation.

Montenegro sounds like a prosperous city state, a fat little plum destined to be gobbled up

 

[atreas]

Alternatively, there are quite a few that see it as the application of "divide and conquer" in modern time.

 

[deo]

God forbid!

What do you have against it?

 

[Winner]

Ah, thanks for explaining the Czech-Slovak seperation, I didnt know about the Slovaks proposing a confederation.

Montenegro sounds like a prosperous city state, a fat little plum destined to be gobbled up

Well, when you cross the borders from Croatia from Montenegro, it's like going one decade back in time. Don't take me wrong, the coast is very nice, historic towns as well. But all you have to do is to take a trip few kilometers into the inland and you get completely different picture. I think Montenegro has a good potentiall, but they need time to develop.

I think Serbs are much more concerned about the Kosovo. Even if Montenegro goes seperate, they will still be close friends with special relations, much like Czech and Slovak republics. Kosovo is a different story. Albanians want a full independence and they are hostile to Serbs. What is worse, Kosovo is a sort of promised holy land for the Serbian nation, something like Jerusalem for the Jews. They will never let it go. If we force them now, they'll just try later.