Would they choose to show anything on the 18th considering that's MLK Jr. Day here in the U.S.?Based on past precedent I'd say
If we don't get a video on 1/11, then I'd say everything shifts 7 days so the update video would be on 1/18 and release on 1/28. Also, soundtrack video release dates have been all over so can't say for certain there.
- Monday 1/11 - January Developer Update Video
- Thursday 1/14 - Alternate Leader First Look
- Tuesday 1/19 - New Civilization First Look
- Wednesday 1/20 - Livestream
- Thursday 1/21 - Release
I think not so your prediction is probably accurate.