The real answer is "it depends". Everyone's rates will go up because they always go up. The question is, how much will they go up compared to what they would have gone up anyway?
They're going up for customers of BCBS
Not for all of them. Your good friend's wife is wrong.
If they insure just a single female age 21-25, her rate will be going down due to Obamacare. Why? Because insurance companies can no longer gender-rate & young females have one of the highest age/gender factors. So, young females' rates will look more like young males' rates, & be lower.
If they insure just one male age 61-64, his rate will come down due to Obamacare. Why? Because insurance companies can no longer gender-rate & older males have one of the highest age/gender factors. So, older males' rates will look more like older females' rates, & be lower.
Do they cover anyone on Medicare Advantage? They won't go up or down due to Obamacare. Do they cover any companies that are self-insured (so BCBS provides administrative services only)? They aren't affected either.
Do they cover any groups with extremely high loss ratios (claims / revenue)? Those group's rates will come down. Have they sent out any quotes to people with pre-existing conditions? Those rates will come down.
Some people's rates will go up, yes. Just not everyone's.
The only government plans are Medicare & Medicaid, & they already existed.
The exchanges will be govt run and subsidies are part of the plan
So? Can you buy The Government's Exchange plan? No? Just private company plans that are offered on The Exchange? Hmmm... then I guess the only government plans are Medicare & Medicaid, like I said.