Diplomacy

[Triskelli]

You know, I'm gonna go ahead and give some guesses to the first turn:

England moves to Norwegian and North Sea, will unquestionably take Norway.

Germany will move towards Denmark and bounce in Burgundy

France will go after Spain, as usual.

Italy sends his fleet to the Ionian, to pick up Tunis and build another fleet with it in Naples, unless he talks Austria into doing a Lepanto or some variation.

Austria will move for Serbia, bounce in Gal. I imagine Trieste will stay in place, or move to Armenia if the Lepanto is started

Russia will go after Sweden in the North, bounce in the Black, and move to take Rumania.

And Turkey will do the same damn thing he does every game: Move up towards Bulgaria and bounce in the Black.


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As for the breakdown of the players: Right now the person to watch out for will be Matthew, simply for the fact that he's the OP and is likely in more practice than the other powers. Expect a lot of press from him, and a Juggernaut seems likely.

Camikaze looks like another driven Dip player, so I expect some fancy moves from him too. A Lepanto (Austria and Italy against Turkey) seems likely, if only for novelty's sake.

choxorn will undoubtedly play a southern game with his units, to tackle the "capitalist burgeoisie" head on. Still, he should make friends with England at the very least, as an army in Norway can cause some REAL headaches for any Ruskie, and he'll likely depend on the build from Sweden if Turkey isn't on his side.

Lord Iggy also has a deal of Dip experience! Looks like we'll have to keep a wary eye on the Wicked Witches (Turkey and England). Alliance with Germany or France is always a toss-up, but watch the army! Where it goes is often telling of the English player's strategy.

Stuck in Pi will probably go for an alliance with England, and a looser "Central Powers" alliance with Italy and Austria. He'll be the deciding factor in who gets Belgium this turn, if anyone!

Tycoonist... hoo boy, have you got your work cut out for you. I imagine Italy will ask you for assistance, and Turkey MAY leave well enough alone, but I see some serious aggression from the Tzar, especially if the Sultan's got his ear. Try to arrange a bounce in Galicia.

Bowsling: Hmm, not sure about this one. A bounce in the English Channel might be able to keep England and France honest, but is not as certain as the Black Sea bounce. I'd move to Burgundy with Paris and go for Spain and Portugal, but that's just delaying the alliance issue.

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Anyone wish to confirm or deny? This is likely going to turn into a game of haves and have nots, as the experienced players exploit or destroy the less experienced ones. It's just a matter of determining who the most influential players will be

 

[Dachs]

Italy sends his fleet to the Ionian, to pick up Tunis and build another fleet with it in Naples, unless he talks Austria into doing a Lepanto or some variation.

This is in fact also the opening for a standard Lepanto. It's not even contradictory with the insane Key Lepanto to move A Rom-Apu, F Nap-ION; all that is needed is A Ven-Tri (succeeds).

 

[Triskelli]

This is in fact also the opening for a standard Lepanto. It's not even contradictory with the insane Key Lepanto to move A Rom-Apu, F Nap-ION; all that is needed is A Ven-Tri (succeeds).

Oops, where is my mind?

Something I love to see from Italy is the Bohemian Crusher (A Ven-Tyr, A Rom-Ven), but this is likely suicide with the skill level of the appropriate players

 

[tycoonist]

^^

Austria is definitely a tough draw... I always seem to get it though when I play


loving the commentary btw, great addition to see what an outside observer thinks

 

[Mathew]

Indeed, the commentary is rather enjoyable, thanks for participating Triskelli and Dachs.

The Spring of 1901 is often one of the most interesting turns in the game as it really sets the stage and can be quite revealing of everyone's intentions. Looking forward to seeing it play out!

And yeah, Austria can be tough to play through the early game but if Austria is able to grow and gain some stability they can be a monster later on. I've seen some very dangerous Austria's.

 

[Dachs]

Something I love to see from Italy is the Bohemian Crusher (A Ven-Tyr, A Rom-Ven), but this is likely suicide with the skill level of the appropriate players

Possibly. If Austria plays poorly (non-Hedgehog, IMO, but I'm biased) the Tyrolia Attack combined with A War-Gal has an excellent chance of dismembering Austria by 1902-3; Tri will be ripe for the picking before the first winter, and Russia has a puncher's chance of getting into Vie/Bud the first year and near-certainty the second. If Austria plays the Hedgehog, the Italian player has lost tempo (A Rom bouncing in Ven with F Tri) but certainly loses nothing else out of the deal, since she would certainly not be getting any other SCs with those two armies with any other moves. It's also possible for even a failed Tyrolia Attack to net a lucky Italy Munich in the fall of 1901.

 

[Triskelli]

-snip plans-

Impressive analysis! The only problem with Italy and Russia disemboweling Austria so early is that it gives Turkey free reign in the Balkans, and considering the GM's playing that position, he'd be the most able to capitalize on any power-vacuum in the East.

 

[Dachs]

Kind of true. Turkey certainly has a decent chance of netting at least one of Austria's home SCs with an early exit for Austria, but an I/R can probably beat the Turks back to their usual defensive cluster back in the center. Russia probably knows that a combination with Turkey will lead to the alliance of all other players on the board against them (in a good game anyway ) and the Italians have no reason to let the Turks live since a Turkey win depends on getting fleets past the stalemate line, which practically necessitates control of the Italian peninsula. Now, a decent Turk will be able to fog the issue, and may be able to get some mileage out of pointing her neighbors at Germany, so it's a bit more of a crapshoot than just "I/R pwns Turkey", yeah.

 

[Mathew]

You guys give me far too much credit simply for being the OP/GM!

Any deeper analysis of the North Western part of Europe It is quite enjoyable commentary to say the least.

 

[Triskelli]

Western Europe? Well, obviously one of the three (France, England, or Germany) is going to draw the short stick when it comes to alliances. The most symbiotic pairing would have to be Germany and England, where one builds only armies and the other only fleets.

As for personal experiences, I was able to accomplish my first victory in a game as England using a version of "Ignorway", as seen in a Diplomacy World article last year. (F Lon-ENG, F Edi-NTH, A Liv-Wal) Of course, that was in a no-press fog of war variant, but I was still able to make my way to victory.

What time tomorrow do we get to see the results of the first turn?

 

[Mathew]

Hi all, still waiting on two sets of orders! Just a reminder that you need to have them in by 8 PM EST (UTC -5) or else you risk having your units ordered to hold.

If you are late with your orders and you send them in before I have a chance to process them I will accept it. However, once the orders have been processed there will be no new orders accepted.


@ Triskelli:

The time will depend on my availability, though I expect it should be sometime shortly after 8.

 

[Dachs]

As for personal experiences, I was able to accomplish my first victory in a game as England using a version of "Ignorway", as seen in a Diplomacy World article last year. (F Lon-ENG, F Edi-NTH, A Liv-Wal) Of course, that was in a no-press fog of war variant, but I was still able to make my way to victory.

I actually think that ignoring Nor is a much better path for England than the usual Scandinavian cul-de-sac. England's strength is fleets, but an English player can hardly use those to get past StP; all she can really hope to net in the north is Nor, along with Swe and/or StP, unless she starts building armies. All the while, England's underbelly remains vulnerable to even an allied France or Germany. I think that an explicitly anti-French posture is best for England, because if France is swept off the board the Mediterranean lies open for English fleets to make their way past the stalemate line.

 

[Triskelli]

...All the while, England's underbelly remains vulnerable to even an allied France or Germany. I think that an explicitly anti-French posture is best for England, because if France is swept off the board the Mediterranean lies open for English fleets to make their way past the stalemate line.

Doubly so, considering how much easier it is for France to overwhelm England than it is for Germany. (Germany mainly has to attack via the heavily defended and defensible North Sea, while France can easily slip a fleet into the Irish Sea and cause quite the headache for England).

Of course with an explicitly anti-French attack, this is an invitation for a troublesome Russian to move his northern fleet through Nor and up through to NOR to threaten Edi. Which could tempt the German player to press into Scandinavia with extra force, with France and Russia so occupied. Revolving door indeed!

Dachs, you seem incredibly well informed about the game: which country do you prefer?

 

[Dachs]

Doubly so, considering how much easier it is for France to overwhelm England than it is for Germany. (Germany mainly has to attack via the heavily defended and defensible North Sea, while France can easily slip a fleet into the Irish Sea and cause quite the headache for England).

Of course with an explicitly anti-French attack, this is an invitation for a troublesome Russian to move his northern fleet through Nor and up through to NOR to threaten Edi. Which could tempt the German player to press into Scandinavia with extra force, with France and Russia so occupied. Revolving door indeed!

True, but I think that you'll be hard pressed to find a "troublesome" enough Russia to risk her fleet on the wrong side of the North Sea without backup. Maybe a "bored" Russia might try it for lulz. But yeah, that is certainly a danger, only partially mitigated by England's near-certain control of NTH.

Dachs, you seem incredibly well informed about the game: which country do you prefer?

Depends. If I get roped into online games, I tend to want to play as Turkey, because I lack the interest to remain engaged in diplomatic relations with the other players on a semi-constant basis, and feel as though the diplomacy in which I do engage is less effective than what I can do face-to-face anyway. So why not play the country best - and most funnily - described as the one for uncommunicative tacticians?

If I'm playing face-to-face, I'd rather play France or Russia; Germany can be fun, but lacks novelty because I seem to have drawn it entirely too often in face-to-face play. France is nice because it's very difficult to do really badly, and Russia doesn't have to deal with stalemate line problems so much - and I don't seem to draw either of them often enough to make either one boring.

 

[Mathew]

Looks like we've got a decent start with one notable exception. Annoyingly England has already NMR'd. He will receive a warning and if he NMR's again hopefully we'll be able to find a replacement quickly.

Anyway, here are the moves:


Results for Spring, 1901 (Movement)


General Notices:


No retreating units; retreat phase skipped.
Order resolution completed on 03-Jan-2011 at 20:44:05 EST


Order Results:


Austria:

Austria: A bud -> ser
Austria: F tri -> alb
Austria: A vie -> gal



England:

England: F edi -> nwg
England: A lvp -> yor
England: F lon -> nth


France:

France: F bre -> mao
France: A mar -> bur
Bounced with mun (1 against 1).
France: A par -> pic


Germany:

Germany: A ber -> kie
Germany: F kie -> den
Germany: A mun -> bur
Bounced with mar (1 against 1).


Italy:

Italy: F nap -> ion
Italy: A rom -> apu
Italy: A ven Holds


Russia:

Russia: A mos -> sev
Russia: F sev -> rum
Russia: F stp/sc ->bot
Russia: A war -> ukr


Turkey:

Turkey: F ank -> bla
Turkey: A con -> bul
Turkey: A smy -> arm

Please see the attached image for the current location of all fleets and armies!

 

[choxorn]

So, when is the next deadline?

 

[Triskelli]

A pox on you, comrade Choxorn! The yellow-bellied Turk has sailed unopposed into the Black Sea, and threatens both Sevastapol AND your right to seize Rumania!

Wow, interesting turn. Austria in Galicia and Turkey in the Black Sea. This could get ugly for Russia fast, folks.

Also, pity on England for dropping out so soon! Could you give him a standard set of moves for this turn so he can have a good position if he returns? (Or if anyone has to replace him?) I would recommend (F Lon-NTH, F Edi - NOR, and A Liv - Yor) as an unassuming set of moves given how his negotiations probably went. (He must have been talking, else France would have likely moved to ENG)

Can't wait to see commentary from the actual players, though: Quite a few humble moves and a few ambitious moves this turn, yes indeed.

 

[Mathew]

So, when is the next deadline?

I apologize for omitting this information in my previous post. The next deadline will be January 6th @ 8PM EST.

Also, pity on England for dropping out so soon! Could you give him a standard set of moves for this turn so he can have a good position if he returns? (Or if anyone has to replace him?) I would recommend (F Lon-NTH, F Edi - NOR, and A Liv - Yor) as an unassuming set of moves given how his negotiations probably went. (He must have been talking, else France would have likely moved to ENG)

I would not be opposed to this and your suggested moveset is logical. If no one is opposed than I will go forward, however, if there are any objections than I will not. I hate to see someone NMR on the very first turn as it tends to be one of the more crucial turns in the game (getting the neutral SCs can be fairly important in the long term and it sets up the early game relationships).

Can everyone please vote by the 5th so people have 24 hours to alter any moves if they need to based on this information? Alternatively I could extend this turns deadline if England is to be given a standard set of moves. Please let me know your preference in all of this.

Thanks.

 

[Lord_Iggy]

Fuuu... timezones. >_<

/me fails

 

[Dachs]

I'm impressed to see that Turkey both launched the uncommon Armenia Attack and got away with it scot free.