A bounce in the Aegean Sea doesn't matter when Russia has a navy in Sevestapol and not an army. That, and...oh, yeah, he NMR.
Yes, it does. Turkey's army in Bulgaria is annihilated (meaning the southern flank is wide open, with only one fleet guarding the area), and it's
much harder to pry one's way into the Aegean with one fleet if the Turks are already there. Golden opportunity with the army in Smyrna heading to Armenia. As the moves were, Italy's decision to support the army in Greece makes no sense - it's hedging against a betrayal by Turkey and Austria (badly), but if Italy thought such a move would occur, oughtn't he have moved the army in Venice to Tyrolia? And what the hell was with the move to the Tyrrhenian Sea, a clear harbinger of an attack on France if there ever was one (but without moving the army in Venice to Piedmont, the necessary corollary)? Completely confusing set of moves - it seems like Italy is playing so conservatively as to be a sockpuppet, except in the case of France, who he has to be irritating without actually hurting.
It's not clear that the NMR really
screwed Russia in the south, after all; they
lost absolutely nothing and retain control of the vital Black Sea, while Turkey's army in Armenia remains out of position to do anything useful (if it were still in Smyrna, things could get really messy for the Italians - admittedly, something the Russians would like better than the Italians would, but still). All that seems to have happened is that Russia dropped a chance to trade Constantinople for the Black Sea, supposing that Russia would've launched that attack anyway (not clear; tactically, it was the correct move, but NWAG's nonsensical attack into the Aegean made an utter hash of the situation down there).
If Italy, Russia, and Austria were really in an alliance worth a damn, the fleet in the Ionian would've moved into the Eastern Med, the fleet in Naples would've gone to the Ionian, the fleet in the Black Sea would've attacked Constantinople, and the armies in Greece and Serbia would've combined to attack Bulgaria - Bulgaria goes into the bag for certain, at least one Turkish unit is annihilated, the Russians have a slim (as it turned out, an excellent one, but the move ought to have been made to cut the potential support for the army in Bulgaria) chance of seizing the Straits, and Turkey's southern flank lies open. NWAG goes out by the end of 1903 for certain. Instead, he's got to be feeling at least some confidence that his enemies are riven by mistrust, incompetent, and potentially willing to cut a deal.