Election ads for unelectable governments

[RebeccaChambers]

God help us! That Family Fairness Act sounds like socialism! Why can't we go back to the McCarthy days when liberals were denied basic human rights?

 

[azzaman333]

They should just save money and not even bother campaigning this time around.

Government? Save money? You is on crack.

 

[Masada]

You would still have to pay for the flunkies

 

[Camikaze]

Keneally plunges to record low

THE Keneally government is heading for a defeat of ''historic proportions'' at next month's election, according to the first poll of the election campaign, which shows Labor could be reduced to as few as 13 seats in the new Parliament.

The Herald/Nielsen poll shows the Coalition leads Labor by 66 per cent to 34 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, a swing of 18 per cent from the 2007 election result.

Labor's primary vote has crashed to 22 per cent, down 9 percentage points since the previous Nielsen poll in November 2009.

The Coalition's primary vote is up 10 points to 53 per cent, while the Greens' primary vote is steady at 13 per cent.

Nielsen's research director, John Stirton, described it as ''an astonishing result'' and ''the biggest two-party preferred lead any party has had, state or federal, in the 39-year history of the Nielsen poll''.

The result suggests Labor has gained no benefit from a decision to launch its campaign almost seven weeks from the March 26 polling day and to target cost-of-living issues.

The statewide phone poll of 1000 voters was taken between Thursday and Sunday.

This was after Labor's ''soft'' launch in Penrith on February 6 and a subsequent debate between the Premier, Kristina Keneally, and the Opposition Leader, Barry O'Farrell, which Ms Keneally dominated.

But it caught only the start of Labor's first tranche of television election advertising, which began screening on high rotation on Sunday night.

Ms Keneally's first Nielsen approval rating is 36 per cent, which is three points lower than that of her predecessor, Nathan Rees, whose sole Nielsen approval rating was 39 per cent. Her disapproval rating is 58 per cent, nine points higher than Mr Rees rated.

Mr O'Farrell's approval rating sits at 55 per cent, up 11 points since the previous Nielsen poll. It is the highest approval rating for a NSW opposition leader since Labor took power in 1995. His disapproval rating is down three points to 33 per cent.

Mr Stirton described Mr O'Farrell's approval numbers as ''very respectable'' for an opposition leader who has not been through an election campaign. State opposition leaders, in particular, relied on exposure to the public during election campaigns to raise their profiles, he said.

Mr O'Farrell also leads Ms Keneally as preferred premier by 52 per cent to 38 per cent - the first time since the March 1995 election that the opposition leader has been preferred premier. The next best was Peter Collins, who achieved 38 per cent to the former premier Bob Carr's 45 per cent in April 1996.

Mr Stirton said the two-party preferred result remained the same whether the results were calculated using voters' intentions or the actual preference flows at the 2007 NSW election. This indicated voters would not alter how they intended to distribute their preferences this time.

The only potential glimmer of good news for the government is found in the youth vote. Within the 18-24 age bracket, Labor leads the Coalition by 61 per cent to 39 per cent, on a two-party preferred basis.

''If the result translates directly into seats in Parliament, it would be a historic victory for the Coalition,'' Mr Stirton said. ''Even if it narrows by as much as 10 points, they would still be headed for a bigger victory than Nick Greiner's in 1988.''

The result is in line with a Galaxy poll published last month that also showed the Coalition leading Labor by 66 per cent to 34 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. A Newspoll published in December had the Coalition leading by 61 per cent to 39 per cent.

''These figures are so unprecedented so close to an election, state or federal, it will be interesting to see if they hold up or not and whether it reduces from a megaslide to a landslide,'' Mr Stirton said.

That's a pretty astonishing gap. 50 seats to 13 in one election would seem unprecedented.

I'm surprised the ALP vote is still higher than the Coalition for youth. I mean, despite what appear to be the Coalition's best efforts to change my mind, I'm still probably going to preference them.

 

[Arwon]

13 is a very high "others" figure.

 

[Camikaze]

Fred Nile has pulling power? Or independents?

Edit: Further investigation (i.e. table in the SMH) reveals that it's apparently 8% for independents.

 

[Lord Baal]

Keneally plunges to record low


That's a pretty astonishing gap. 50 seats to 13 in one election would seem unprecedented.

I'm surprised the ALP vote is still higher than the Coalition for youth. I mean, despite what appear to be the Coalition's best efforts to change my mind, I'm still probably going to preference them.

I think most young people just don't have any memory of a party other than Labor being in power. After all, my fiancee loves John Howard, despite all the evidence that he was a jackarse, simply because she's not old enough to remember Keating. She never even considered the possibility of Howard losing power.

 

[Camikaze]

I thought no memories of a Liberal government would make you more likely to vote for them.

 

[Lord Baal]

I thought no memories of a Liberal government would make you more likely to vote for them.

It certainly does for a lot of the people I know, but most people are scared of the unknown. I know I'd prefer the incompetent, criminal Labor government to the incompetent, criminal and hyper-religious Liberal government we're going to end up with, but it's basically a case where I'm choosing between living in Fascist Italy or Nazi Germany at this point.

 

[Masada]

At least the trains are going to run on time?

 

[Lord Baal]

At least the trains are going to run on time?

Yeah, but I'm Jewish, so I probably won't be allowed on them.

 

[Masada]

Maybe they're non-denominational post-modern nazis who do the whole jackboot thing for ironic purposes.

 

[Lord Baal]

Maybe they're non-denominational post-modern nazis who do the whole jackboot thing for ironic purposes.

More likely it's simply because they're so far behind the times that they still think jackboots are in fashion.

 

[Braindead]

The New South wales Labor government is so utterly incompetent, scandal prone and lacking in credibility that they have no hope of retaining power. The only question for them is the magnitude of their defeat. The people also seem to have a low opinion of the Liberal opposition.

The Liberal Party has an enormous electoral asset, they are not the Labor Party. This will carry them to victory.

 

[Camikaze]

I get the feeling lots of people for some reason or another feel like they must partake in the either-or system of Liberal or Labor, rather than support third parties. Greens support isn't nearly as high as you would think it would be with ALP primary support at 22%. I just don't really understand how people seem to think that they must approve of either the opposition or the government.

 

[Masada]

I don't know why you would think that the center would shift from the left to the hard left?

 

[Arwon]

Bear in mind NSW is our worst state (this includes the Northern Territory, as of the last election) for a variety of reasons. Even then, we're polling 13-15%, up from the 8% we got in the last state election, about consistent with the 12% from the Federal election just gone. If that mostly holds it's enough to increase Legislative Council representation (but not stop the Libs and right wing nutzoids from controlling it).

Really, from our perspective the statewide number rising an important thing, though it isn't quite as important as what our vote does in Balmain and Marrickville - we need to gain seats after the disappointment in Victoria. To a lesser extent of interest will also be what happens in Coogee, Heffron and Sydney, as well as existing Lib-Green TPP seats Vaucluse and North Shore.

(Oh and I'm excited for the possibility of a dark-green vs light-green coloured NAT-GRN TPP seat in Ballina as well)

You're right though, I think we were always going to struggle to cut through, given such a decisive "throw the bastards out" sentiment, and the assumption that the sort of rusted on Labor voters who are going to abandon them in Western Sydney and Wollongong and the Central Coast would go Green is not a very solid one.

 

[Camikaze]

I guess it's a false assumption (on my part) that it's a move from the centre. I wouldn't think that 22% still hanging onto the ALP really represents the left all that much. But even then, there's options to the right, as well. Is it a lack of options listed in these polls that makes people be so binary?

 

[Arwon]

Also, the idea that Labor is "left" in NSW is already ludicrous. Whatever silly desperate claims Carmel Tebbutt and Verity Firth might make, they're useful fools for the Right's political machine.

Last time around, independents and Greens both got around 8 or 9% of the vote, the CDP got 2% and Unity got 1%. The polls are - roughly - reflecting people's actual behaviour. Though I expect the Green and indie vote should rise as well as the Lib this time around (conversely I expect Unity to essentially disappear, more's the pity, and their voters to go mostly Liberal).

 

[Lord Baal]

NSW Labor is about as "left" as Dick Cheney.