Election ads for unelectable governments

[Masada]

Left being a convienant descriptor and nothing else. In any case, Cami most elections are decided by so-called 'swing voters' which represents voters who shift with the political winds. There are always a solid core of people who will never vary their vote. Elections are not won by 'priming' the base, those who will already vote for you, but by appealing to swing voters preferably with cash inducements on or just before election day.

 

[Mongoloid Cow]

I guess it's a false assumption (on my part) that it's a move from the centre. I wouldn't think that 22% still hanging onto the ALP really represents the left all that much. But even then, there's options to the right, as well. Is it a lack of options listed in these polls that makes people be so binary?

It's a lack of competance and moderation in the state political parties in NSW, so yeah there's no options. It's no surprise that so many New South Welsh want to abolish the state. Sucks for the cockroaches.

If the Greens effectively went a shade of "light green" they'd steal labor and liberal votes, and might become a force to be reckoned with.

 

[Masada]

Doubtful, Australia hasn't ever done third parties well. In honest terms, the two party system has been on relatively solid foundations since 1909's Deakinite Fusion ticket. And even the Fusion owed less to Labor strength than to the complete collapse in interest in the free-trade and protectionism debate and the resulting loss of any actual divide between the two parties. Even blips like the Nationalist Party debarcle didn't really rock the boat all that much.

 

[Arwon]

MC: Hey, we do get 1 Liberal-preferencing voter for every 3 Labor-preferencing voters.

Masada: This election a lot of those rusted-ons are going to swing, I think particularly we're looking at a breakdown of long-lasting ethnic loyalties in Southern and Western Sydney (all those old Italians and Greeks, and the younger Asian communities) which will be confirmed if swings in those areas are above the statewide swing. 22% is well below Labor's core vote. It may also be a fruitful time for locally-known independent candidates in normaly safe Labor seats, I think the Mayors of Wollongong and Newcastle are running.

I'd also point out there is seemingly now a Labor-Green swinging constituency as well, which matters in that handful of inner-city seats.

 

[Bast]

I think I'm going to vote for Kristina (ALP). I just can't vote for Liberal. And also for the Greens.

 

[Camikaze]

The election is on Saturday, and I don't really know how I'm going to vote. I will most definitely be putting Greens #1, but I'm unsure as to whether I should preference Liberal or leave the rest blank. I will most likely be voting for Greens and then Labor in the Upper House.

On the topic of election ads, I'm still unsure as to what the Liberals are actually proposing doing. The only election ads I've seen from them focus purely on the negatives of the alternative. I guess that is fair enough to an extent, seeing as this election really is simply a matter of the alternative that isn't quite as bad as the other, but it's not particularly endearing in my eyes.

 

[Tee Kay]

preference Liberal

And you call yourself a socialist.

 

[Camikaze]

Leaving aside the fact that I don't call myself a socialist anymore, appearances in this case are deceiving. It's hard to tell which party occupies the space closer to my opinions, given the state of NSW Labor. I do of course feel this great natural revulsion at the idea of voting for the Libs, but wouldn't it be in my best interests to do my bit to destroy NSW Labor as it currently is and perhaps return it to a more acceptable position?

 

[onedreamer]

Ever had any desperate election ads from politicians - ads that don't even bother to go negative against the opposition, but just beg for forgiveness and another chance? I'm sure the Irish will have some fun examples in their upcoming election.

No and I don't think it is possible that it ever happens in Italy. Italians tend to forget both the goods and the bads of a government in a matter of few weeks, therefore the manifesto is pretty much always the same. Just think that the right and left wings are still calling each others "Fascists!" and "Communists!". But I must say the ads are rarely against the opposition. That would be perceived negatively.

 

[Arwon]

The election is on Saturday, and I don't really know how I'm going to vote. I will most definitely be putting Greens #1, but I'm unsure as to whether I should preference Liberal or leave the rest blank. I will most likely be voting for Greens and then Labor in the Upper House.

On the topic of election ads, I'm still unsure as to what the Liberals are actually proposing doing. The only election ads I've seen from them focus purely on the negatives of the alternative. I guess that is fair enough to an extent, seeing as this election really is simply a matter of the alternative that isn't quite as bad as the other, but it's not particularly endearing in my eyes.

Good call on the upper house, although preferences will almost certainly not be distributed. They never have been under the current system - with exhausted ballots, enough candidates get a full quota (4% or so, but with exhausted ballots that becomes 4% of the remaining vote, more like 2% or 2.5%) that preferences don't need distribution.

The only possible scenario Green preferences to Labor in the upper house will make a difference is if:

-No candidates are left with a full quota (hasn't happened yet)
-The Greens get a surplus that's less than quota (like 2% when we get to the last couple of seats, remember)
-Labor get a larger surplus under quota
-A right wing candidate has a vote that's slightly larger than that, but still under quota, such that Greens prefs put Labor ahead

Plus there's also the problem that nasty Labor Right scions like the Treasurer Eric Roozendaal and SDA stooge Greg Donnelly are occupying the safe top-ticket positions while a good progressive candidate like Andrew Ferguson are shunted down to the precarious 6th position and probably won't get in. Screw NSW Labor.

 

[Camikaze]

Yeah, I won't be voting down the Labor line; Roozendaal will certainly languish with the Libs (ahead of the Christian Democrats and Pauline, of course) on my ballot. I don't really think it's so much a matter of it actually making a difference, as doing it on principle.

But that still leaves the Lower House. My Labor MP has run a far better campaign than his Liberal counterpart; I've heard more about this slightly crazy independent candidate that's running than I have about Mr Brookes. My MP has also managed to back himself up in terms of answering questions of 'what have you done for the area?', because he actually has done quite a reasonable amount. I'm unsure what this means as to how I'll vote, though.

 

[Arwon]

Haha in that case, there's a friend of mine at number 17 on the Greens ticket. Give her your '1'!

 

[Camikaze]

Will do!

Browsing the ballot, it seems Kate McCulloch managed to get herself to be No. 4 in Pauline's Group.

 

[Camikaze]

I should add, BTW, that I actually haven't been entirely impressed by the Greens campaign. Pretty much the only campaign posters/policies I've seen from them are simply anti-nuclear. I mean, what is this, the 70s? I *think* these posters were up before the tsunami, so at least I can discount the possibility that it's a pure fearmongering exercise, but still...

 

[Arwon]

In East Hills? That isn't surprising, and I would be surprised if those nuclear posters are official 2011 campaign material. Looking at the candiate announcement press release there's no mention of nuclear anywhere.

But at any rate: limited resources have to be balanced between unwinnable areas and winnable seats. Heffron is apparently pretty decked out!

 

[Camikaze]

I've seen them here, but more so along Anzac Parade, and generally pretty much everywhere in the city. They must be official. I also saw them yesterday at the pre-polling booth at Town Hall. I can't think of any other political signage from the Greens that I've seen.

 

[Masada]

New South Wales Labor to topple... two terms too late

Anyways, Victoria #1!

 

[onedreamer]

I should add, BTW, that I actually haven't been entirely impressed by the Greens campaign. Pretty much the only campaign posters/policies I've seen from them are simply anti-nuclear. I mean, what is this, the 70s? I *think* these posters were up before the tsunami, so at least I can discount the possibility that it's a pure fearmongering exercise, but still...

From my experience the Greens across the whole world are always "anti-something". I've yet to see a Green say "I'm pro-this".

 

[Arwon]

Let's see, off the top of my head, some policy platforms and bills the Greens have pushed around Australia. All "pro" things:

Support for renewable energy, gay marriage, drug law liberalisation, action on climate change, euthanasia legalisation, paid parental leave, free or cheap tertiary education, expanded journalist shield laws, tax incentives for corporate social responsibility things, a republic, a bill of rights...

 

[Camikaze]

I ended up going #1 Green and #2 Liberal for lower house. I feel kinda dirty. My sister voted the same way as me, and my parents voted Green and Labor, so our family cancels out nicely. Upper House I voted Melissa Brooks #1 then up the Green line, and then up the Labor line finishing at Andrew Ferguson. I threw in a Democrat for good measure and then gave up.

From my experience the Greens across the whole world are always "anti-something". I've yet to see a Green say "I'm pro-this".

The signs were also pro-wind and pro-solar. It's just that the anti-nuclear and anti-coal bits were salient.