Election ads for unelectable governments

[Camikaze]

Absolute massacre.

Looks like the ALP will go from 50 to 20 seats, and the Coalition from 37 to 71. 14 point swing. At the moment, ABC is saying that Ashton will retain East Hills. (Slightly disappointing showing for the Greens; if I read the ABC summary right, they aren't going to pick up any Lower House seats)

Bad news, though, is that it appears the Shooters & Fishers, and even worse, the Christian Democrats will hold the Upper House balance of power. God help us.

 

[Tee Kay]

The Greens are a joke.

Can NSW Labor ever hope to regain power in the next several decades?

 

[Camikaze]

I'd give it a decade. Depends how successful the Coalition is in solidifying its claim on newly won and never before held seats. Otherwise there would presumably just be a swing back to Labor in traditionally Labor areas.

 

[Masada]

Bad news, though, is that it appears the Shooters & Fishers, and even worse, the Christian Democrats will hold the Upper House balance of power. God help us.

Yes...! Yet more reason to claim that New South Wales should be kicked out of the Federation.

Victoria #1!

Can NSW Labor ever hope to regain power in the next several decades?

Yes, easily. They probably won't be able to win in the next election but the election after that is feasiable. The CLP's experience here is instructive in that regard.

 

[azzaman333]

Bad news, though, is that it appears the Shooters & Fishers, and even worse, the Christian Democrats will hold the Upper House balance of power. God help us.

.


...




.....

 

[Mongoloid Cow]

Bad news, though, is that it appears the Shooters & Fishers, and even worse, the Christian Democrats will hold the Upper House balance of power. God help us.

lol! The Lib leader was saying that they'll make sure that NSW is no longer the basket case of the country - and they have the balance of power. That is gold.

 

[Camikaze]

Yeah.

...

At the moment, the ABC puts the Liberals as winning my seats by 2 votes. 15311 to 15309. That would be the vote of my and my sister, who would in any other circumstance be Labor voters.

 

[Tee Kay]

Well, how about that. Your votes do matter.

 

[classical_hero]

Apparently this is not the largest swing against an elected government, in Australia.

 

[Arwon]

Absolute massacre.

Looks like the ALP will go from 50 to 20 seats, and the Coalition from 37 to 71. 14 point swing. At the moment, ABC is saying that Ashton will retain East Hills. (Slightly disappointing showing for the Greens; if I read the ABC summary right, they aren't going to pick up any Lower House seats)

Bad news, though, is that it appears the Shooters & Fishers, and even worse, the Christian Democrats will hold the Upper House balance of power. God help us.

We won't know who gets Balmain until next Wednesday when postals and prepolls are in. There's less than 1000 votes between the 3 major parties, each have about 30%, and essentially, whoever finishes ahead between of the ALP and Greens will win on the preferences of the other.

Marrickville looks pretty doubtful, but a good showing in postals and pre-poll could get us over the line there.

Mixed results really. We've shown repeatedly that we struggle in 'change of government' elections (federally in 2007, Victoria 2010) when there's a dominant narrative about the major parties. Even so, we still got a record vote and a third lower house seat. We're now the second placed party across most of North Sydney and even against the Nationals up in Ballina and Lismore - the north coast campaigns got some pretty decent swings, they probably could teach some lessons to some of the Sydney branches.

I suspect there may be some compositional shifts in our vote - losing blue-green voters to the Libs, but picking up some Labor voters.

Really we got our hopes up too far in Marrickville, it wasn't on the radar til last year and a 9% swing is difficult to achieve even in these circumstances. Seats don't win themselves, especially not for us. The Carmel Tebbutt campaign had massive volunteer resources and I think there needs to be a lot of questions asked by the Marrickville Greens about their campaign strategy and preselection. Balmain? Balmain is turning into Vaucluse apparently. I don't think many people saw the Libs leading there on primary vote, but again, one has to wonder about how the campaign was run and the choice of candidates.

 

[otago]

Keneally ? a mate is on the left of the NSW Labor party, he sees Keneally as a corrupt bimbo who probably is a Opus Dei member who got her position being someone's girl.

He was laughing like hell when telling me Keneally had resigned but was staying in parliament, he wants to take up a collection for a one way ticket back to Ohio for her, NSW Labor know how to hate.

His view as a party member, NSW Labor are stuffed because they will never change.
I was surprised when he told me it would be a damn sight easier to start a new party on the centre-left but making damn sure it grew from the roots.

 

[Arwon]

She'll probably end up taking Garrett's seat which overlaps with Heffron. Has some local popularity, it seems.

 

[Ozbenno]

Really we got our hopes up too far in Marrickville, it wasn't on the radar til last year and a 9% swing is difficult to achieve even in these circumstances. Seats don't win themselves, especially not for us. The Carmel Tebbutt campaign had massive volunteer resources and I think there needs to be a lot of questions asked by the Marrickville Greens about their campaign strategy and preselection.

7% actually

The Greens should really have won this seat (my local seat actually). There needs to pretty detailed self-analysis of how they didn't pick up much of the swing away from labour. I think how they run their campaigns (doesn't seem very professional from the outside) and their media savvyness (just terrible) in particular needs to be addressed.

Hard to see the Greens vote increasing in the future unless they make some changes.

 

[Camikaze]

In other news, it would appear that not only did the Shooters & Fishers and the Christian Democrats win a seat, but Pauline Hanson has taken a seat off the Greens gains.

This is why NSW sucks.

 

[Tee Kay]

In other news, it would appear that not only did the Shooters & Fishers and the Christian Democrats win a seat, but Pauline Hanson has taken a seat off the Greens gains.

This is why NSW sucks.

We need to build a fence...

 

[Arwon]

In other news, it would appear that not only did the Shooters & Fishers and the Christian Democrats win a seat, but Pauline Hanson has taken a seat off the Greens gains.

This is why NSW sucks.

Not at this stage. It's more likely the Greens will win the last seat on Labor preferences, with the second most likely outcome Ferguson getting in on distributed Green votes. She's showing ahead on the ABC because her vote is higher than either the Labor or Green surpluses individually and Antony's calculator assumes no preference distribution is necessary (because it hasn't been previously).

Antony Green's stopped updating the automated thing on the ABC website, but his own blogging is more up to date. We won't know for sure til April 6 or so but the order of descending likelihood is the Greens, Labor and then Hanson.

7% actually

The Greens should really have won this seat (my local seat actually). There needs to pretty detailed self-analysis of how they didn't pick up much of the swing away from labour. I think how they run their campaigns (doesn't seem very professional from the outside) and their media savvyness (just terrible) in particular needs to be addressed.

Hard to see the Greens vote increasing in the future unless they make some changes.

This would be the point at which I make unflattering remarks about the NSW Party, especially their inner city branches, and look forward with hope to the next ACT election.

More broadly though, the swing was always going to be much larger to the Libs. At least half the swing was people who have never changed their vote from Labor before, and clearly their bandwagon effect just swept all before it. (It's also entirely possible that we lost blue-green votes to the Libs whilst gaining slightly more from Labor, we just don't know). Remember, the Libs got big swings against Clover Moore, too, as well as other independent candidates. They got that swing everywhere, it swamped every other local factor.

 

[Masada]

Quote of the day goes to Greens MP John Kaye talking about Coalition claims that there is a $4.5 billion budget deficit in New South Wales.

But state Greens MP John Kaye says it is typical of Treasury to paint a bleak financial picture.

"The ink is barely dry on the Governor's signature and they're presented with a budget black hole.

"The budget black hole is nothing more than Treasury's desire to undermine public services and cut public investment in infrastructure."

This would be hilarious if the implications weren't so terrible. I'm stuck with the uneviable choice of deciding whether the member is just stupid or actually believes this. The latter is far more scary than the former.

 

[Camikaze]

I think it's more a poorly worded attack on the inevitable (and, if I must say, surprisingly quick; I would've given it a week at least) "oh no, it's worse than we thought, looks like we won't be able to fulfil our election promises". You could see it coming a mile off.

Dr Kaye seems like a pretty smart dude; this quote doesn't seem to display that, I guess.

 

[Arwon]

It's also a rounding difference in forward estimates for like 2014, which makes it not a "black hole" at all. Terrible reportage all round, hope the media gets a little less credulous regarding BOF in the near future.

 

[Masada]

I think it's more a poorly worded attack on the inevitable

By attacking Treasury? The implication is that Treasury invented a black hole for the purposes of executing an independant political agenda.

"oh no, it's worse than we thought, looks like we won't be able to fulfil our election promises".

... from the same ABC article:

"The one pledge that I give the public is that we will deliver on the commitments given during the election campaign," Mr O'Farrell said.

Dr Kaye seems like a pretty smart dude; this quote doesn't seem to display that, I guess.

You don't say.

It's also a rounding difference in forward estimates for like 2014, which makes it not a "black hole" at all.

It is actually.

Terrible reportage all round, hope the media gets a little less credulous regarding BOF in the near future.

Or the Greens. Whatever works.