turn 0: Things look ok. No deals to be done
turn 6: optics in, philosophy next. If we can trade for paper, we might have a shot at liberalism. But we won't be getting a great scientist. The fastest we could get one is something like 30 turns.
turn 7: I decide to build a settler for one more city. (Maybe two more).
turn 8: Islam FIADL
turn 9: pacal canceled some deal
turn 10: pacal offers us paper for machinery + 65 gold. Not the fairest deal ever since paper is less expensive than machinery, but I take it anyways for a jump on the liberalism race. We are now more or less even with Pacal (he's researching philosophy, and 3 turns away, we're 2 turns away.
Our economy is continuing to strengthen, and I think we can edge out Pacal for liberalism. Hopefully somebody on another continent won't take it out from under our noses.
to do list:
1) philosophy > education > liberalism
2) keep cottaging up. In particular, our two cities north and northeast of the capitol need more cottages. Hippo is getting cottaged fast now, so we should be able to redirect a worker or two after the next cottage. The iron city needs a pair of cottages too, and there's a pair of workers there to do it.
3) A caravel is built, go exploring, find neighbors so we can figure out where we stand on liberalism (though it's too late to really change our course in that matter)
recommendations:
1) I started the settler in the iron city, but I wouldn't settle him until the liberalism race is decided. At this pace we will edge out both of our island companions, but we can't afford any slowdowns.
2) A few more military can't hurt. Don't want any surprises from antsy neighbors.
3) Go light on the specialists. If a city can work a cottage instead of a specialist, it's probably best to do that. I'd keep two scientists going in the capitol though.