Eurasian Union

[Snorrius]

As we all know, some time after dissolution of Soviet Union, ruling elites came to understanding that (part of) post-Soviet countries have to be reunited within EU-like union. Currently Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan joined customs union (which is similar to how EU started) and common economic space is expected to be created in 2012. I doubt that it will go that smooth because there are still a lot of issues to be worked out (as current Belarus-Russian "oil war" shows) but the course is right.

So, which other countries should join this this "Eurasian Union"? Obviously, Ukraine would fit ideally in it and would benefit a lot but until current self-destruction policy is in place it is impossible, so we will have to wait until Ukrainian state crashes and buries its mad rulers.

Some Central Asian republics are also may be interested, although it will have to be approached quite cautios as some of them have huge excess of workforce, and it would be wise to install some precautions against massive migrations.

In the long run it maybe quite logical choice for Mongolia as well.

 

[Lillefix]

If Russia, France, Poland Germany and a whole lot of other countries could swallow their pride, I would prefer Russia and Ukraine to eventually be a part of the European Union. But that's just me.

In any case, Russia needs to be bit nicer to it's neighbouring(I get a red line under this word!!!!) countries if anything is going to succeed.

 

[Shekwan]

The problem with such an idea is that Russia would dominate any union of the countries in the region. Theres no counterbalance to their power.

 

[Lillefix]

True. It would be like...the Soviet Union.

 

[warpus]

The problem with such an idea is that Russia would dominate any union of the countries in the region. Theres no counterbalance to their power.

How many people do they have, 140 million?

That would be counterbalanced by the population of Germany (80 mill) and Great Britain (60 mil) alone

That's not even keeping in mind that Russia is losing peeps rapidly.

 

[Lillefix]

How many people do they have, 140 million?

That would be counterbalanced by the population of Germany (80 mill) and Great Britain (60 mil) alone

That's not even keeping in mind that Russia is losing peeps rapidly.

He means in a Eurasian Union with Ukraine and Kazakstan

 

[warpus]

He means in a Eurasian Union with Ukraine and Kazakstan

Ahh.. I've only heard "Eurasian Union" referred to as a union spanning most of the EU and northern Asia, thus my confusion.

 

[Snorrius]

The problem with such an idea is that Russia would dominate any union of the countries in the region. Theres no counterbalance to their power.

Well, is this something that bad? In NAFTA, for exampe, which may become a step to further integration of North America (if USA will survive crash of its economy as a single country) US will clearly dominate? So what? Integration around core country(ies) is not something unheard of, even in EU France and Germany are often said to have much more influence than others.

True. It would be like...the Soviet Union.

As far as I remember main objection to Soviet Union is that it had missionary Communist ideology (akin to current US "we bring democracy to ya!"). Now Russia does not impose some specific ideology and way of thinking onto anyone. The main idea is common economic space and military security.

 

[Shekwan]

I was originally responding to warpus.


@Snorrius
Well in my opinion thats why NAFTA will never integrate to the same level as the EU. It would just be dominated by the US.

The EU is not really dominated by Germany and France. Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom, Spain and Poland all have almost identical voting power in the EU Council, the most powerful EU institution.

 

[Karalysia]

Eurasia huh? Like this?

 

[RedRalph]

I think that despite the recent disagreements, Belarus will still eventually join Russia. Their economy is totally underwritten by Moscow, Europe doesn't want them and they are basically the same naitonality. Even Lukashenko admitted a few months ago he couldnt possibly cut adrift form Russia.

Kazahstan seems interested in some form of alliance or integration too, between the CSTO Rapid Reastion force and the customs union. Russia seems willing to trade economic favours for some degree of political control, and Kazahstan seems happy enough with the deal.

Other obvious candidates would be Abkhazia, Armenia, and maybe a couple of the other stans. But Belarus is a given, they will be a part of Russia again, I bet within the decade.

 

[Karalysia]

If Russia can up Ukraine the Crimea, and possibly the Southern Ukraine maybe. South Ossetia also.

 

[TheLastOne36]

Problem with the EU is that we can't accept countries instantly like Belarus. We probably should to get them under our rule.

IIRC Uzbeki's hate Russians, as do other various Central Asians.

Ukraine will collapse before it joins Russia. If it joins Russia before, it is going to need a lot of Russia's army to stop the revolts.

Azerbaijan i'm not sure of, They I think have a positive view of the EU and the west so may not be as happy to jump on the Russian train. Armenia is a possibility, Georgia is already under Russia's sphere.

Modolva will not want to be part of Russia. They are Romanians and Russians are Russians. It does not work, and nowadays we cant simply "Invade countries" to get them in our sphere's of influence. (Although Russia did it with Georgia and USA did it with Serbia)

 

[RedRalph]

If Russia can up Ukraine the Crimea, and possibly the Southern Ukraine maybe. South Ossetia also.

I think it's a given that South Osettia will join Russia. But I bet Abkhazia doesn't. I also think any secessionist sentiment in parts of ukraine is about to die given how Yanukovich is going to be President shortly.

There's a vague possibility he could take Ukraine into the customs union, but only if he really has to. Can't see him joining the CSTO.

 

[Karalysia]

Transdnestria is an option. Russia even has an army there.

 

[RedRalph]

Transdnestria is an option. Russia even has an army there.

Not feasible... Russia has soldiers there, but they dont recognise it as an independent state, and I cant really see any good reason for them to do so. you never can know for sure, but I'd be very surprised.

 

[Squonk]

Belarus may form an union with Russia, but it will not "join" it. Armenia will be russian ally, but it will never form a strong union with it. There were massive protests in Armenia when russian ministry called Armenia "russian outpost", and Azerbaijani president joked about it.

Azerbaijan has nothing to gain in joining Russia, unless to make it stop supporting Armenia. Right now Azerbaijan is pro-western, nationalist and undemocratic.

 

[AesronDrosseli]

True. It would be like...the Soviet Union.

I laughed. =)

As far as I remember main objection to Soviet Union is that it had missionary Communist ideology (akin to current US "we bring democracy to ya!"). Now Russia does not impose some specific ideology and way of thinking onto anyone. The main idea is common economic space and military security.

True as that may be, it's kinda hard to imagine economics not getting mixed up with politics, especially when you're being dominated by Mother Russia.

 

[Takhisis]

Karalysia is right, this could lead to the establishment of something like Eurasia in 1984, except for the fact that it'd end at the EU borders. This armed peace has lasted for too long. One day it'll burst. Let's hope they don't get to the nukes.

 

[aronnax]

Why would Kazakhstan join in Union with Russia? The Russians have been pilfering money from central Asia for Mother Russia for centuries now! And now that Kazakhstan has a strong Kazakh majority, there is no way in hell it would sit there and wait for Russia to redirect cash from Kazakh lands. Plus, I was under the impression that the Central Asia states see Russia as an economic friend and a political threat.