euro 2008 quarter and semi finals

[holy king]

so as the tournament enters the knockout stage tomorrow...
... it's time for a new thread!

june 19th, basel:

portugal - germany

june 20th, vienna:

croatia - turkey

june 21, basel:

the netherlands - russia

june 22, vienna

spain - italy

my tips:

portugal - germany:

portugal clear favourite. germany would have to boost performance by a huge margin to have a chance. with podolski missing, i dont see them winning by more than a 20 percent chance.

croatia - turkey:

one underdog will make it to the semis. (which was almost guaranteed by the initial draw anyway)
croatia is the better, yet older team. they will significantly lack stamina in the last 30 minutes as we saw in the first two group matches. that's the time when turkey has won it's two games in the group stage.
i see advantages for turkey, maybe 65 percent.

netherlands - russia

edit: netherlands will mop the floor with russia. 80 - 20 for holland.

Spoiler :

doesnt matter who makes it. the netherlands will mop the floor with both of them.
holland - russia 80-20
holland - sweden 90-10

spain - italy.

can spain finally perform in the knockout stage?
they surely have the means to do so. tight game nontheless, with the italians having finally found their rythm against france.
50 - 50.

 

[holy king]

löw suspended from quarter final

in german:
http://derstandard.at/?id=3381959

uefa claims hickersberger and him where yelling at each other and sent off for that.


http://youtube.com/watch?v=nUkLISJiZ80

 

[Stapel]

I feel very confident we will beat either the Swedes or the Russians. But we will then meet Italy in the semis (Spain never ever performs on tourneys, and Italy does in the knock-out phase), meaning we will probaly be sent packing again while thinking we were better, and deserved a win....

As Cruyff said 8 years ago before that semi-final: Italians cannot beat you, but you can still lose when playing them. It's a nice set-up for the perfect football knightmare.

 

[Joe Harker]

Portugal to beat Germany, Germany just look like they are going to leak a load of goals in, if it had been another team other than Austria, you would have bet Germany to have lost a goal to them.

Croatia - Turkey. This for me is the closest quarter final and any team could win it, but my money would be on Croatia.

Netherlands - Russia/Sweden. Netherlands , who ever wins out in the Russia Sweden match will lose to Holland.

Spain to beat Italy based on performances so far, Spain look fairly comfortable, they did work too much to win the game against Sweden, but Italy have been poor so far and have only got though on a lucky, but spectular penalty save and a win against another poor side.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I'm not very keen on football trueisms.

Spain played well. Italy didn't. Spain should be confident and not be troubled by it's past. True, it's football, anything can happen and the form of the day is important, but the talent in Spain's team is nothing to sniff at. I give them 50/50 as well.

 

[Red Door]

Italy will be missing Pirlo and Gattuso, which will hurt a lot. But Spain is Spain, so I still think Italy wins.

 

[scy12]

Croatia , Spain,Netherlands and Portugal to qualify.

 

[Marla_Singer]

tight game nontheless, with the italians having finally found their rythm against france.
50 - 50.

At which moment specifically? At the 8th minute when Ribery got hurt sending him off or at the 25th minute when France conceded a penalty and got a red card?

Let me clarify the thing. France definitly deserves to end 4th of the group, but France vs Italy result is more about France losing than Italy winning. As a matter of fact, I've been frankly surprised to see how Italy was bad despite playing at 11 against 10.

Now of course, Italy still qualifying despite having been as low in the beginning can give them wings for the playoffs. After all, it's a whole new competition now.

My opinion : Italy is old, slow and unconfident. Italy's main strengthes are Buffon and Toni, but the other 9 players aren't that impressive. Spain is very efficient offensively, but really not that strong defensively.

Conclusion : Spain is the favourite, but Italy can always get lucky.

 

[dgfred]

Yes, France lost quite well.

 

[lovett]

The group winners are strong favourites in each game, i'd say. I.e, Portugal, Croatia, The Netherlands and Spain. I'd say the closest game is Spain-Italy, but with Pirlo and Gattuso missing Spain have a distinct advantage.

 

[Marla_Singer]

Yes, France lost quite well.

Getting your best player hurt at the 8th minute and conceding both a red card and a penalty doesn't help though.

I'm frankly not convinced at all Italy had the capacity to win 2-0 without these two events (though only one is bad luck since Abidal is of course totally faulty on the penalty). That Italian team is desperately old, and there's no younger generation apparently coming in.

 

[Sofista]

As has been mentioned, France did it all herself: the red card-cum-penalty, the killing blow deviation. I agree, but it deserves mention that France's first shot on goal came in the second half, despite the 30' in 11.

Wonder how Marla can say we're just Buffon and Toni, though. Pirlo was his old self yesterday, De Rossi was very active (UEFA man of the match, btw), Cassano found plenty of creative ways to distribute balls. And considering the critical nature of the game, I support the choice to stick to our battle plan.
As for the youngsters... che sarà sarà, the U-21 looks OK to me.

 

[scy12]

Pirlo)and Buffon) is the most important and best player of Italy both now and at World cup 2006 and i guess possibly even previously.

 

[Stapel]

but France vs Italy result is more about France losing than Italy winning.

Italians always wins in that style....

 

[Sofista]

...fresh after our last friendly, man!

 

[Hitro]

I predict a final between Germany and Italy.

Why? Well, just a feeling, both have not shown much so far while others might feel too confident (all group winners, in fact).

Of course objectively all four matches are pretty out in the open maybe with the exception of the Holland one, where two teams with equal strengths and weaknesses meet each other. But the Dutch are simply better when it comes to the strengths and less bad when it comes to the weaknesses. Still, maybe Hiddink pulls that off.

 

[Hitro]

Alternatively Löw et al get what they deserve tomorrow. But I am not very confident about that.

 

[kronic]

My thoughts exactly. Either Germany get utterly destroyed or manage a 1-0 or 2-1.

 

[LAnkou]

well, I thought France, Romania, Sweden and Czech would go to quarter final.
I think that Germany, Croatia, Netherland and Italy will go in semi-final.
Expect Portugal-Turkey and Russia-Spain next week

 

[Rhye]

Time to update the first post, holy king. Sweden is out!

Italy's main strengthes are Buffon and Toni

Toni?
If *I* had been in his place monday, we would have won 4-0 at half time