Forced peace and ai war plotting

Random thought: AI starts plotting on another AI, player panics and begs, fist doesn't disappear, but later AI switches targets to the player and player thinks "well, that beg sure only delayed the inevitable"?

 

My interpretation has been that if you beg and the fist disappears, this means the AI was still in the preparing stage and you were the only viable target so it stops plotting. If the fist doesn't go away that means there are other viable targets so it's still preparing, or that it had moved into war mode against you and it's too late. Daggers skip the prep phase, so it's always too late. Once it's in war mode, the only delay is it moving its troops. The peace treaty merely stalls the war 10 turns and you can expect an attack 0-2 turns after peace ends.
Usually you can tell who the AI has decided to target by looking at troop positioning and/or espionage spending.
The advantage to begging for peace immediately after the fist appears would be that you don't give time for the AI to leave prep mode and enter war mode against you. I suppose this could backfire if the AI indecisively preps for over 10 turns and makes the decision on who to target after the peace treaty expires. I typically beg right away so if it is a dagger I have time to prepare, or if the beg fails I have a couple turns to make emergency preparations.

I've seen the AI plot for like 50 turns before. I believe it can get stuck in limbo to some extent if it loses a path to its target after it's picked its target (from, say, closing borders). I've also seen wonky stuff with naval invasions, like backwards warmongers futilely try to spam galleys targeting an AI that has frigates refusing to give up until it's tanked its economy.

 

If the AI does not decide to just go straight to war and do prep first, limited war prep is guaranteed to be over 5 turns and total war prep is guaranteed to be over 10 turns (standard game speed). So you'd probably want to beg like... 4 turns after the fist appeared?

 

drew's explanation seems pretty spot on, except the code said nothing about looking for other viable targets. It should switch directly to no war plan if a sneak attack was under preparation towards the player, unless there's something more in there that makes it immediately consider a new war plan after switching to no plan.

This would also explain why people have so wildly different experiences about this. Depending on if your normal reaction to a fist is " A Fist! Must beg immediately!" or more like " a fist? Can beg if they send someone towards us." you'd be used to seeing different results.

 

From what I've seen, it is possible for the AI to change its mind on who it's plotting on, or whether to plot at all, but there's no garuantee.

Quite often while I'm at war with AI X, another AI, (Y) will start plotting, and Y is not in any wars currently. However, if I capitulate or make peace with AI X, Y will often immediately stop plotting.
Another time I've seen Hatshepsut next to me at cautious plot on me (stack of units in city next to me, and has the fist of death). I Switch into her religion and make her pleased, and beg gold. Couple turns later she stops plotting.

Begging gold doesn't seem to do anything, it just prevents them from DoWing for 10 turns. You can use this time to make them pleased/friendly which can get them to stop plotting (if it's on you), bribe another AI to attack them, which will completely screw up their plotting plans, or build a big enough empire and military to scare them away.
Likewise if they refuse gold when you beg, it doesn't mean that they're plotting on you, it just means they're being stingy. If you have known an AI for a while (50 turns plus) and they are at pleased and you haven't begged, they should ALWAYS say yes the first time for 50 gold~.

However, if you are at a peace treaty, and then the AI begins plotting while you have several turns left, you can be sure it's not on you, unless you refuse a demand after your peace treaty expires.

Another interesting situation I had on one of my games was Julius ceasar was in a war with Shaka, then decided to demand something off me. I said no because I was sure to be safe, he didn't even have any units near me. A few turns later, while he's sitll at war with Shaka, he declared on me and sent one catapult to invade. Some AI like Montezuuma are crazy enough to immediately declare on you while already at war if you refuse their demands.

 

A lot of info here I find surprising.

If others could confirm:

Is it true that getting an AI to Pleased or Friendly while they're plotting can get them to cancel plans? I thought that the AI attitude towards me only matters when they decide to plot. After that I can improve the relationship but they will still declare if they decided to do so when the relationship was below the threshold.

Likewise I didn't know that an AI that I have a Peace Treaty with cannot start plotting. They obviously can't declare until the treaty expires but can't they start plotting?

And I thought Monty was the only one that can plot war while already at war.

 

Sort of in a similar vein - I've often wondered how the red fist works. Because, BUG / BUFFY, don't (to my knowledge) offer you information you couldn't otherwise glean from looking at espionage / checking demographics. Is that right, or is the 'red fist' giving you information that is unavailable to someone playing without any mods?

(I suppose I could look at the code.... but I haven't yet).

 

The red fist simply reports their reply to war bribes on the trade screen. If it's "We have enough on our hands right now" the fist shows up. If you're in semi-iso and there's no AI around to bribe him on the fist wouldn't show up even if he is plotting.

 

I don't think so. Once they start plotting, that's it. And going by vidoes by Lain, so does he. I'll trust he knows his stuff.

They can drop war plans later on, but that isn't due to relations, as far as I know.

 

Quite some reputation, indeed.

 

Haha, that writing-editing went a little rogue

 

AIs will definitely declare even when they're Friendly if they started plotting beforehand, or because something like the AP forced them to, or because they don't like your vassal(s) as much, etc. The only situation in which you can be reasonably sure an AI won't DoW you is if they're already in a war, and even than I've had Monty throw himself into a two-front war with me because I refused a demand from him in the meantime.

 

Still a bit confused. How would you know 100% sure which one of these options it is? For example, in Lain's most recent video he saw Monty plotting and begged gold 2 turns I believe (after switching to Hinduism?) later. The fist did not disappear but Lain appeared 100% sure that he was not the target of Monty. He did not prepare any extra defenses at least.

But if I understand the mechanics (as explained by Drew) correctly, there still could be a chance that Monty had already switched to war mode against Lain before he secured the 10 turns of peace? What is the minimum prep time before an AI can go in war mode (aside from the dagger where it is 0)? 1 turn?

Maybe I remember wrong then and Lain begged on the first turn of the fist appearing and is that the essential point here. So: beg on the first turn and you have 100% averted war, whether the fist disappears or not. Beg on the second turn or even later, and you are only certain you have averted war if the fist disappears. And if the fist stays, they are either in war mode against you (and you have 10 turns to prepare), war mode against some other AI or prep mode? Is that correct?

But then this:

.... could mean that even if you beg one gold on the first turn of plotting and the fist stays on screen (which could either mean the AI is in prep mode (which means they have not chosen a war target yet, correct?) or in war mode against another AI), you still run the risk that you will be targeted after 10 turns, right?

So the question then is: was Lain correct in assuming he was 100% certain not the target of Monty's aggression in the example above? Because it seems there was still a chance for him to become Monty's target.

 

You are never 100% safe from Monty until and unless he's dead and buried in any case, so...no. Even aside from that, though, I wouldn't assume that begging on the first (or second) turn of AI war plotting is 100% sure to make you not to target (or at least indicate as much).

 

Well since red fist in BUG just pulls from WHEOOHRN on the diplo screen, red fist going away on beg means they literally have no none else they could have declared on. The same reason you can't see red fists if you are the ONLY target, there's nobody else the AI and you both know that you could ask to bribe them on. If you are no longer a target they can't still plot a war without any target at all.

From the way I understand the AI executes war, it has multiple stages of war: planning, pick target, staging (sending units, this stage can last for AGES depending on map geometry/border agreements), DoW at border cross. The only thing a peace treaty seems to do is to remove the DoW at border cross, as I like others have seen AIs send their stacks in with Open Borders even after an emergency beg, fumble about, DoW when the treaty is up.

The relevant portion is that picking a target and everything else seem to be disjointed. So, as long as we're not talking about a refused demand war (which ALWAYS targets you) if an AI just picked you as the lucky winner of it's war target lottery, begging when they still have a valid target (anyone else who is valid, anywhere) shouldn't do anything in terms of stopping their war plans dead.

And I've had the "wait out the treaty" thing happen plenty too, which implies that AI targeting is paradoxically either persistent or perfidious, as it would have to either a.) continue to target you despite peace treaty, as it technically can still plot or b.) actually switch targets (or go back to planning phase having some other valid target) and then switch back to you once the treaty is up.