French Presidential Election 2012

[really]

The first round of the French presidential election takes place on April 22nd with the run off election between the top two being scheduled for May 6th.

The candidates Profiles are available from the BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16730494

The candidates are:

Nicolas Sarkozy - UMP (right)
Francois Hollande - Socialist
Marine Le Pen - National Front
Francois Bayrou -centrist
Jean-Luc Melenchon -Communist-backed coalition called Left Front
Eva Joly - Green
Dominique de Villepin - Republique Solidaire
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan a former UMP member who has formed his own party, Arise the Republic
Nathalie Arthaud - Workers' Struggle
Philippe Poutou - New Anti-capitalist Party
Corinne Lepage - environmentalist


Sarkozy and Hollande are the frontrunners with Hollande in the lead according to the opinion polls.

I have added a poll for the first round.

What does CFC OT think?

 

[Mise]

God, I can't think of a worse choice...

Bayrou, probably. Le Pen and Sarkozy are instant No's. Hollande looked promising, before he repeatedly reaffirmed his conservative belief in keeping things exactly as they are. We know that Hollande won't reform, and we know that Sarkozy failed to reform, so Bayrou is all that's left.

It's sad that the only way he can win is if Le Pen beats Sarkozy and Hollande.

 

[Leoreth]

Oh, I didn't know that so many politicians run for president in France.

If I had to vote, I'd only choose candidates that have a chance of winning. Le Pen is right out because she's nothing but an authoritarian populist (self-admitted even). If you would've asked me one year ago I would've chosen everything that could replace Sarkozy, but now that I've learnt how far to the left Hollande is I'm really undecided.

In my opinion, Hollande is quite a wild card because you can't really know what of his program he will actually pursue. Since I'm mainly interested in his reaction to the Euro crisis, I must say that his foreign policies are appealing, I think he could add a much needed counterweight to Merkel's current dominance, especially in areas where she's more of a hindrance (decisive use of the ECB, most prominently). Renegotiating already accepted treaties is folly in my opinion, though.

Domestically, his plans seem to consist mainly of leftist pipe dreams, and really make me wonder if the socialists have learnt anything. Resisting the urges to cut is one thing I could understand, but further expanding the welfare state for example by reducing the retirement age is bad for France and sends the wrong signals for the rest of the Eurozone, imo.

 

[really]

Oh, I didn't know that so many politicians run for president in France.

In the first round a candidate needs 500 signatures from the 47,000 mayors, local councillors, regional councillors, deputies etc to run.

If no candidate wins an outright majority the top two go into a run off election.

The fractured nature and number of candidates on the left is one of the reasons Jean-Marie Le Pen (16.86%) edged Lionel Jospin the Socalist candidate (16.18%) into second place in the 2002 election. Jacques Chirac won 19.88% and the second round with 82.21%.

 

[NedimNapoleon]

The socialist

 

[Leoreth]

In the first round a candidate needs 500 signatures from the 47,000 mayors, local councillors, regional councillors, deputies etc to run.

If no candidate wins an outright majority the top two go into a run off election.

The fractured nature and number of candidates on the left is one of the reasons Jean-Marie Le Pen (16.86%) edged Lionel Jospin the Socalist candidate (16.18%) into second place in the 2002 election. Jacques Chirac won 19.88% and the second round with 82.21%.

I was aware of the general procedure and the 2002 election, but I'm surprised there are so many even lesser known candidates. I thought they would be dissuaded from running similar to the American third candidate logic, where you often only would hurt the most prospective candidate that is closest to you.

 

[amadeus]

Spoiled ballot. I wouldn't even vote for Le Pen as a protest vote.

 

[Traitorfish]

Philippe Poutou, because from the perspective of an ultra-gauche weirdo like meself, he's the least repulsive choice going.

(Funnily enough, the second least repulsive choice wouldn't be Nathalie Arthaud, as might be assumed, because my contempt for the various Trot microparties and their laughable "Internationals" could be reasonably described as "infinite".)

 

[danjuno]

I'm split between Poutou and Melenchon.

 

[Mr. Dictator]

Philippe Poutou, because from the perspective of an ultra-gauche weirdo like meself, he's the least repulsive choice going.

(Funnily enough, the second least repulsive choice wouldn't be Nathalie Arthaud, as might be assumed, because my contempt for the various Trot microparties and their laughable "Internationals" could be reasonably described as "infinite".)

What a turncoat. The only acceptable reason to oppose those revisionists is their insistence on using the state's apparatus to enact change.

 

[Ajidica]

Le Pen, just to watch France descend into anarchy and give me some international interest stories if the American presidential campaign gets too dull or repetative.

 

[madviking]

"New Anti-Capitalist Party"

Makes me think why the Old Anti-Capitalist Party fell.

Oh right.

Parties that are named the "Anti-X Party" never succeed.

 

[really]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17280647

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has said there are too many foreigners in France and the system for integrating them is "working more and more badly".

In a TV debate, Mr Sarkozy defended his plan to almost halve the number of new arrivals if re-elected next month.

Mr Sarkozy is trailing in the opinion polls behind the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande.

He is also competing for conservative voters with the far-right National Front party led by Marine le Pen.

 

[CELTICEMPIRE]

I wanted Jean Luc Melanchon to win being the ultra leftist I am.

Out of all seriousness, I'd like Aignan to win the elections, but If I was a French citizen I would likely vote for Sarkozy as he has a much better chance of winning.

I king of like the French system, unlike the American one where you can only chose from 2 candidates, this is more interesting.

 

[Traitorfish]

I wanted Jean Luc Melanchon to win being the ultra leftist I am.

Poor choice of words, given that in France the ultra-gauche is a recognised political tendency defined specifically by the fact that it sits to the left of the extreme-gauche ("far-left"), itself defined by the fact that it sits to the left of the Communist Party. The CPF, like the German Linkspartei or the Italian PDS, is merely "left".

 

[Leoreth]

It's kind of funny how they're trying to "one up" each other in terms of leftiness.

 

[Traitorfish]

In fairness to the ultra-gauchistes, the label was originally applied to them by Leninists as a pejorative, and they just said "sure, why not?"

 

[innonimatu]

Jean-Luc Melenchon is th only half-decent choice, but cannot really be expected to win. I might vote for Le Pen if the had any chance of winning, just for the sake of seeing the EU crumble. Except that I don't trust her to destroy it even if she was elected. She's an unprincipled politician like all the other front-runners.

 

[Snorrius]

What does CFC OT think?

I dunno who are all these people but on this list there are two decent figures on this list: Nicolas Sarkozy and Dominique de Villepin. Le Pan is interesting as well but I am skeptical about woman ruling country like France.

 

[really]

First round of voting is this Sunday.

A recent opinion poll http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-16/hollande-gains-over-sarkozy-in-french-presidential-poll.html says Socialist candidate Francois Hollande would defeat President Nicolas Sarkozy in both rounds of the presidential elections

Hollande would win the first round of balloting on April 22 with 27.5 percent of the vote against Sarkozy’s 27 percent, Ifop institute showed in its daily survey today. Support rose by a half percentage point for Hollande and fell one point for the incumbent, compared with the last survey on April 13, the Paris- based pollster said.

Hollande would defeat Sarkozy 55 percent to 45 percent in the final round of the election due on May 6