French presidential election 2024

[AdrienIer]

Current estimates :



As is often the case, as more urban votes are being counted the estimations are moving slightly in favor of the left (they try to account for that in their early estimates but usually fall a bit short of the precise correction). I wouldn't be surprised if Melenchon ended up less than 2 points behind Le Pen

 

[Dadais]

My two observations :

-Polls overestimated the whole sovereigntist group score.
-Polls underestimated their influence on the vote ("vote useful" effect) concentrating the votes on the three main tendancies' candidates.

 

[AdrienIer]

Yes the polls (just like 5 years ago) underestimated Mélenchon's rise and overestimated the far right. Like 5 years ago it won't change who's in the second round, but I'm now more skeptical of a Le Pen victory than 2h ago

 

[Akka]

My only joy with these results is seeing Pécresse faceplanting so hard. This PoS had it coming.

Also, it's still surreal to see the PS even lower than the PCF.
I'd say such a huge part of the vote going to anti-globalist should really ring alarm bells in the head of the elites about how they have been driving the system up to now, but elites are very good at never listening until the walls come down crumbling so I expect that even if Macron wins, it's only at most a five-years delay until the RN grab the prize. And it's not even unlikely that they grab it in two weeks.

Macron might have pretty a good score in the first round, but the amount of people who despise him is rather staggering and nearly nobody from any other party really will fall back to him, while you can consider that nearly 100 % of Zemmour voters will got to Marine Le Pen - so the real score is more 30 % for her and still 28 % for Macron. Any more votes for Macron will come from being "against Le Pen" rather than "for Macron", save maybe a trickle from Pécresse and Hidalgo.

 

[Birdjaguar]

If you total the percent from left, right and center, what do they look like?

 

[AdrienIer]

Macron will get quite a few votes from the left (~5% IMO) and a good part of Pecresse. He's heading into the second round with at least a 5% lead.

 

[AdrienIer]

If you total the percent from left, right and center, what do they look like?

Left 31, center/right 33, far right 32, weird "rurality" vote 3

 

[Birdjaguar]

Pretty tight then.

 

[Joij21]

Why do the French hate Macron so much? He seems pretty presidential to me.

 

[AdrienIer]

Why do the French hate Macron so much? He seems pretty presidential to me.

He's our local Thatcher. He despises anyone who isn't rich and it shows. He's cut spending in hospitals and schools even while in a pandemic.

 

[Akka]

He's our local Thatcher. He despises anyone who isn't rich and it shows. He's cut spending in hospitals and schools even while in a pandemic.

Yeah, he's kind of a French Thatcher when it comes to policies. Though I wouldn't say "despise", I think Macron honestly thinks himself as a liberal, forward-thinking progressive person that is trying to enlighten people on how to conduct business. It's more "contempt", and a rather US view that anyone who struggle, doesn't make it because of lack of efforts.
He's a brilliant and successful man, and I think he has trouble projecting into more regular people who don't have charisma + intelligence + education + connections, and is utterly unable to grasp the whole "middle and low class life".

This makes him liable to try to manipulate people by lying about how he understand their problems, and claiming he's going to fix said problems by launching programs he never really intend to follow through. He had a LOT of "epiphany moments" where he "finally understood/got the message/realized his errors", just to ignore all these claims and double down on what he was already doing. This has burned quite a lot of bridges when it comes to the goodwill of the electorate.

 

[AdrienIer]

New estimations have Le Pen at 23 and Melenchon at 22.2, which means I'm not going to bed quite yet...

 

[Birdjaguar]

I heard this from my friend:

We nearly succeeded.... Melenchon : 22,8; Le Pen: 23. Macron: 28...
I am both sad and angry...

 

[Akka]

After some more counting, actually it's the gap between the 1st and the 2nd which is closing and the one between 2nd and 3rd is enlarging.
After 91 % of the votes counted, it's :
M. Emmanuel MACRON 27,42%
Mme Marine LE PEN 24,55%
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON 20,97%

The second round will be decided by how many people who voted Mélenchon will vote for Macron, how many will vote for Le Pen and how many will abstain.

 

[AdrienIer]

After some more counting, actually it's the gap between the 1st and the 2nd which is closing and the one between 2nd and 3rd is enlarging.
After 91 % of the votes counted, it's :
M. Emmanuel MACRON 27,42%
Mme Marine LE PEN 24,55%
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON 20,97%

The second round will be decided by how many people who voted Mélenchon will vote for Macron, how many will vote for Le Pen and how many will abstain.

Don't compare the estimates and the current results. An hour ago Melenchon was at 18% in counted votes, and has now gone beyond 21%. Le Pen's vote count is almost at its final number because the remaining votes are from big cities where there's very little Le Pen votes. Melenchon will probably end up around 22%, Le Pen just above 23% and Macron around 28% (big cities are voting for him quite a lot).

 

[João III]

Does anyone think she has an actual shot at winning? I feel like there's been talk of her potentially becoming president for the better part of the last decade but she just never seems to seriously contend? We're not in 2016 anymore

 

[innonimatu]

It was a given that the PS wold be lower than the PCF. But it collapsed even further than I expected. Under 2%! Mélenchon benefited a little, not enough.
Pécresse collapsed further also that I expected. Under 5%? What, the former two big parties of France together have 6% of the vote?
And I think most of the "Pécresse vote" went to Macron already. So he did better now.

It's pretty obvious that most of the Républicains and Verts voters are going to hold their noes and vote Macron - if they vote - in the second round. He 9% of the right the same for Le Pen. On a very simplistic level that puts the two remaining ones at 36 - 33.

But the 21% who bothered to go vote Mélenchon are a wild card. Whatever he says.
Just a month to go - all right, it's Macron's election to screw up. If we wants to be reelected, he can. It's must a matter of not being disdainful of the french. A great effort for him.

 

[The_J]

Does anyone think she has an actual shot at winning? I feel like there's been talk of her potentially becoming president for the better part of the last decade but she just never seems to seriously contend? We're not in 2016 anymore

Current predictions are around 51 to 49 percent at worst, so yeah, there seems to be a chance.
From the 10 candidates who didn't make it, 7 have called for supporting Macron, Melenchon has said that his supporters shouldn't vote Le Pen, and Zenmour and another one have called to support Le Pen.
If there is a high abstention rate, this could get problematic.
(and not only for the French people, but for Europe)

 

[João III]

Current predictions are around 51 to 49 percent at worst, so yeah, there seems to be a chance.
From the 10 candidates who didn't make it, 7 have called for supporting Macron, Melenchon has said that his supporters shouldn't vote Le Pen, and Zenmour and another one have called to support Le Pen.
If there is a high abstention rate, this could get problematic.
(and not only for the French people, but for Europe)

Say she wins, what would we be likely to see? I know I could search Google but that'd probably give me a thousand propaganda think pieces

 

[The_J]

I think some of the actual French posters need to answer that, but at it's core she's anti-European, was pro-Putin, and is anti-immigration. Given that the EU needs a strong France, this would seem detrimental to the EU.