The 2024 US Presidential Election

Gori the Grey

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CFC: OT generally has a thread tracking the US presidential primaries (customarily titled "Clown Car"), then a separate thread, once the primaries are settled, for the election itself.

The primaries are, for all intents and purposes, settled.

The 2024 US Presidential Election will be between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Commentary on that match-up is starting to clutter up other of our political threads, including "General Politics" (which I think is intended to be for everything but US Presidential politics).

Post your commentary on the 2024 US Presidential campaign season here.
 
POLLSTERDATESAMPLEMOETRUMP (R)BIDEN (D)SPREAD
RCP Average2/13 - 2/2747.145.1Trump+2.0
POLLSTERDATESAMPLEMOETRUMP (R)BIDEN (D)KENNEDY (I)SPREAD
RCP Average12/14 - 2/2239.835.515.0Trump+4.3
POLLSTERDATESAMPLEMOETRUMP (R)BIDEN (D)KENNEDY (I)WEST (I)STEIN (G)SPREAD
RCP Average12/10 - 2/2241.038.013.72.32.0Trump+3.0

This Day In History: February 28, 2020: Biden +5.4 | February 28, 2016: Clinton +2.8

Quinnipac polls are showing a Biden lead across all three combinations. Includes a 4-point lead heads up with Trump.
 
I have a theory. Trump has historically overperformed his polling averages. I believe that the shy/deceptive Trump voters have come out of the shadows. If correct, you'd want to accept the Trump line as an accurate snapshot. Which pins this race within the MOE. But if I am wrong about that...Biden could be 5 points back, which, based on recent years, is really, really awful for a Democrat.
 
If Trump is outright winning the popular vote he is president again for certain. Even if he loses by 1% he still has a very good chance in the electoral college, realistically Biden would need to win the popular vote by 2% or more to feel good.
 
It seems bizarre and terrifying that Trump has a very real chance of coming back into power.

What has caused Western Democracy to get stuck in mud? It seems most, not just the US, are failing this way.
 
Trump doesn't terrify me. What terrifies me is that we have a former president under siege and running for reelection. What recompense will be wrought? It is for that reason that I don't know that Trump will live to see November. Perhaps better a martyr than an angry second Flight of the Eagle.
 
It seems bizarre and terrifying that Trump has a very real chance of coming back into power.

What has caused Western Democracy to get stuck in mud? It seems most, not just the US, are failing this way.
We allowed a cabal of organized rich people to systematically undermine it for decades and are now paying the consequences.
 
A political action committee supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has helped him gain access to two critical battleground states ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

The American Values 24 PAC confirmed in a news release Tuesday that Kennedy’s name will appear on the Arizona and Georgia ballots.

This actually could be a big deal. Biden could win without these two but each of the battlegrounds are precious. Can't totally assume that Kennedy hurts Biden much but that seems to be the thinking.
 
tit for tat, the race to the bottom continues...

NY Democrats ram through new congressional map that will give them an edge in elections — then changes law to limit challenges​

 
Citizens United?

 
She'ss bacckkk...Mariiiannnee Williamson!
“As of today, I am unsuspending my campaign for the president of the United States,” Williamson said in a video posted to X. “I had suspended it because I was losing the horse race, but something so much more important than the horse race is at stake here, and we must respond.”
 
We are a week from a scheduled State of the Union address which is an absolute must "ace" for Joe Biden. Unless he is going announce his campaign is over. I make the odds, 30% ACED, 20% BOMB, 10% segway into an actual 25th amendment, 15% campaign suspension-not running, which leave what, 25% middling performance. Until this speech is over, it is the MOST IMPORTANT SPEECH IN AMERICAN HISTORY (100%)

So, to get ready find a YouTube showing horses not clearing the jumps.

Although, it is probably going to be rescheduled for later, cause, how can they have it until funding is done? The moronic House is actually floating a bill to prevent Biden from giving the speech in the absence of Biden proffering a budget and national defense strategy. Is there a level of stupid beyond moronic?
 
Does anyone remember the state of the union address by election day? I don’t think the “big mo” for Joe is there.

Trying to find a historical parallel here is difficult: not since 1968 (Nixon) has a defeated candidate been nominated and won, 1956 (Stevenson) when one lost twice, and Grover Cleveland being the only president to serve two non-consecutive terms. Looking at polling data this far out also doesn’t give me a lot of insight into a possible direction.

edit: not counting Wallace or Perot. Major party candidates, major!
 
FTR, I say this Thread is premature, since the primaries are not over and Nikki Haley has vowed to ride the Clown Car until at least Super Tuesday. I hope she stays in until the end and forces a contested convention, but at a minimum, the Republican primary is still contested, in the sense that Trump has not been crowned as nominee yet.

So I formally protest this rogue thread as violative of the sanctity of the Clown Car.

@Gori the Grey you owe me restitution, since you were the one who demanded I start a new Clown Car thread in the first place.

@Birdjaguar , I want a ruling... Does Gori get the guillotine or just the stocks?
Spoiler :
;):p
 
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